External Debt Management and Macroeconomic Performance of the Nigerian Economy, 1986 – 2011

The study examines impact of external debt management on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria using data spanning 1986-2011 and employs an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique. Four equations were modeled in which the independent variables include external debt (EDBT), debt service payment (DSP), balance of payments (BOP) and foreign direct investment (FDI). The dependent variables were per capita income (PCI), unemployment (UNEM) and literacy rate (LITR) for model 1, 2 and 3 respectively as well as of EDBT. The OLS results reveal that impact of EDBT, DSP and BOP on PCI is negative while FDI has a positive influence on PCI. Again, EDBT, DSP and BOP have positive determining influence on UNEM while that of FDI on UNEM is negative. Empirical results further show that impact of EDBT, DSP and FDI on LITR is positive while a negative relationship exists between LITR and BOP. Finally, impact of FDT and TOT on EDBT is negative and a positive relationship exists between GDP, EXR and EDBT. The study recommends among other things that government should ensure that any deal with the London and Parish Clubs and other creditors should be deals that will open Nigeria to greater trade and investment. Key Words: External Debt, Debt Service Payments, Economic Performance, per capita income

Effectiveness of Agriculture Productivity on Inclusive Growth in Nigeria, 1981-2016

This study examines the impact of agriculture on inclusive growth in Nigeria. A time series data covering the period, 1981-2016, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria amongst others was utilised for the study. Accordingly, three stage least squares technique of analysis was used in evaluating the data. Inequality, poverty and unemployment were used as a proxy for inclusive growth while agriculture output, agricultural value-added, agricultural labour employed, government expenditure in agriculture, gross capital formation as well as bank loan and advances to agriculture were used as indicators of agricultural development. The study finds that agriculture has insignificant impact on inclusive growth in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommends that it is imperative for the country to develop its agricultural sector through sufficient government spending in order to set-up its inclusive growth. Keywords: agriculture, inclusive growth, inequality, poverty, and unemployment

Determinants of Agricultural Export Earnings in Nigeria, 1980-2011 Determinants of Agricultural Export Earnings in Nigeria, 1980-2011

The study focuses on the determinants of agricultural export earnings in Nigeria for the period 1980-2011. The explanatory variables were identified to include world income, exchange rate, degree of openness and rainfall (a proxy for weather). The study tested for stationarity, co-integration and employed VAR model and found that current agricultural export earnings in Nigeria are positively and significantly responsive to its lag 1, World income (lag 1 and 2), openness (lag 2) and exchange rate (lag 1). On the other hand, the impact of agricultural export earnings (lag 2), openness (lag 1), exchange rate (lag 2) and annual rainfall (lag 1 and 2) is negative. The results of variance decomposition and impulse response function reveal that world income and exchange rate is key variables that explain changes in agricultural export earnings. The paper recommended that there is need for value addition to agricultural products being exported and that conservation and rehabilitation programmes for agricultural products should be organized in areas where degradative processes are about to set in and farmers encouraged through appropriate pricing mechanisms. Keywords: Agricultural export earnings, world income, exchange rate, degree of openness, VAR mode

Human Capital Education and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria

The focus of the study is to assess the extent at which investment in human capital education can affect economic performance in Nigeria with particular emphasis on sustainable level of economic growth and development over the last few decades. It has been argued in the extant literature that the nature of education provided in Nigeria is so poor that the prospect of sustainable economic development is not likely to come by. The design of the study is basically anchored on secondary data and econometric analysis, whilst all variables related to the human capital development constitutes the population of the study. Accordingly, the sample is made up of one dependent variable and four explanatory variables covering the period from 1986-2021. They include gross domestic product used as a function of secondary school enrolment, primary school enrolment, adult literacy rate as well as public spending on education. The data were obtained from various sources include the Central Bank of Nigeria’s various issues of Annual Reports and Statement of Account and Statistical Bulletin as well as World Bank data bases. The data were analyzed using the Johansen co-integration technique and the parsimonious error correction model, in order to ascertain the long and short runs impact of the variables on economic growth in Nigeria. Accordingly, it was evidenced in the study that equilibrium long run relationship exists between economic growth and the selected indicators of human capital development. Specifically, it was observed in the study that enrolments into primary schools, secondary schools and adult literacy rate had positive and significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. However, the study found that the level of government spending on education had negative but insignificant influence on human capital development in Nigeria. Among other things, the study recommended for the need to increase budgeting allocation for the educational sector that will enable the provision of adequate facilities and good learning environment

Government sectoral spending and human development in Nigeria: Is there a link?

The continuous increase in government expenditure in the last three decades without a commensurate improvement in all known indicators of development has generated heated debates among scholars as to the justification for the persistent rise in the annual expenditure of the government. Therefore, this study examined the effects of government sectoral spending on human development in Nigeria using annual data spanning the period 1986–2021. This study contributed to the literature by examining the effects of government sectoral spending on human development using a robust human development index that captures the multifaceted state of economic development in terms of educational attainment, life expectancy and per capita income, unlike previous studies that concentrated on aggregate government spending and used the gross domestic product as an indicator of development. Surprisingly, however, results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model employed indicated that both in the short and long run, there is no link between government sectoral spending and human development in Nigeria. Although, outcomes from ECMs suggest that government sectoral spending may affect human development in the long run

Effectiveness of Agriculture Productivity on Inclusive Growth in Nigeria, 1981-2016

Accordingly, three stage least squares technique of analysis was used in evaluating the data. Inequality, poverty and unemployment were used as a proxy for inclusive growth while agriculture output, agricultural value-added, agricultural labour employed, government expenditure in agriculture, gross capital formation as well as bank loan and advances to agriculture were used as indicators of agricultural development. The study finds that agriculture has insignificant impact on inclusive growth in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommends that it is imperative for the country to develop its agricultural sector through sufficient government spending in order to set-up its inclusive growth. Keywords: agriculture, inc