Estimation of gestational age in early pregnancy from crown-rump length when gestational age range is truncated: the case study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.

BACKGROUND: Fetal ultrasound scanning is considered vital for routine antenatal care with first trimester scans recommended for accurate estimation of gestational age (GA). A reliable estimate of gestational age is key information underpinning clinical care and allows estimation of expected date of delivery. Fetal crown-rump length (CRL) is recommended over last menstrual period for estimating GA when measured in early pregnancy i.e. 9+0-13+6 weeks. METHODS: The INTERGROWTH-21st Project is the largest prospective study to collect data on CRL in geographically diverse populations and with a high level of quality control measures in place. We aim to develop a new gestational age estimation equation based on the crown-rump length (CRL) from women recruited between 9+0-13+6 weeks. The main statistical challenge is modelling data when the outcome variable (GA) is truncated at both ends, i.e. at 9 and 14 weeks.We explored three alternative statistical approaches to overcome the truncation of GA. To evaluate these strategies we generated a data set with no truncation of GA that was similar to the INTERGROWTH-21st Project CRL data, which we used to explore the performance of different methods of analysis of these data when we imposed truncation at 9 and 14 weeks of gestation. These 3 methods were first tested in a simulation based study using a previously published dating equation by Verburg et al. and evaluated how well each of them performed in relation to the model from which the data were generated. After evaluating the 3 approaches using simulated data based on the Verburg equations, the best approach will be applied to the INTERGROWTH-21st Project data to estimate GA from CRL. RESULTS: Results of these rather "ad hoc" statistical methods correspond very closely to the "real data" for Verburg, a data set that is similar to the INTERGROWTH-21st project CRL data set. CONCLUSIONS: We are confident that we can use these approaches to get reliable estimates based on INTERGROWTH-21st Project CRL data. These approaches may be a solution to other truncation problems involving similar data though their application to other settings would need to be evaluated

Identifying risk factors for the development of sepsis during adult severe malaria.

BACKGROUND: Severe falciparum malaria can be compounded by bacterial sepsis, necessitating antibiotics in addition to anti-malarial treatment. The objective of this analysis was to develop a prognostic model to identify patients admitted with severe malaria at higher risk of developing bacterial sepsis. METHODS: A retrospective data analysis using trial data from the South East Asian Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial. Variables correlating with development of clinically defined sepsis were identified by univariable analysis, and subsequently included into a multivariable logistic regression model. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. Discrimination and goodness-of-fit were assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and a calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 1187 adults with severe malaria, 86 (7.3%) developed clinical sepsis during admission. Predictors for developing sepsis were: female sex, high blood urea nitrogen, high plasma anion gap, respiratory distress, shock on admission, high parasitaemia, coma and jaundice. The AUC of the model was 0.789, signifying modest differentiation for identifying patients developing sepsis. The model was well-calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi squared = 1.02). The 25th percentile of the distribution of risk scores among those who developed sepsis could identify a high-risk group with a sensitivity and specificity of 70.0 and 69.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model identifies patients with severe malaria at risk of developing clinical sepsis, potentially benefiting from antibiotic treatment in addition to anti-malarials. The model will need further evaluation with more strictly defined bacterial sepsis as outcome measure

The effect of endometriosis on live birth rate and other reproductive outcomes in ART cycles: a cohort study

Study question: What is the effect of endometriosis compared to unexplained subfertility on live birth rate in women undergoing IVF and embryo transfer (ET)? Summary answer: Endometriosis decreases live birth rate in women undergoing IVF-ET treatment, particularly with increasing severity of the disease. What is known already: Endometriosis affects up to 50% of women seeking fertility treatment and is known to reduce fecundity. There remains a debate as to effects of endometriosis on the outcomes of IVF treatment, with live birth being a secondary outcome or not reported in most studies. Study design, size, duration: A retrospective cohort study analyzing data of IVF treatment cycles from January 2000 to December 2014 was carried out. Participants/materials, setting, methods: Women with endometriosis (n = 531) and women with unexplained subfertility (n = 737) undergoing a first cycle of IVF-ET in a tertiary fertility treatment center were included in the study. The primary outcome was live birth. Other outcome measures were response to ovarian stimulation, embryo development and implantation rate. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed and differences compared using Chi squared test of Student’s t-test as appropriate. Main results and the role of chance: Women with endometriosis had 24% less likelihood of a live birth when compared to those with unexplained subfertility [odds ratio (OR) 0.76 (95% CI, 0.59–0.98) P = 0.035]. This effect became more apparent with increasing severity of endometriosis. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, the trend for lower live birth rate remained but did not reach statistical significance [adjusted OR 0.76 (95% CI 0.56–1.03), P = 0.078]. Women with endometriosis were as likely as those with unexplained subfertility to have a singleton live birth when two embryos were transferred as opposed to a single ET [OR 1.38 (95% CI 0.73–2.62), P = 0.32 and OR 3.22 (95% CI 1.7–6.05), P = 0.0003, respectively]. Compared to women with unexplained subfertility, those with endometriosis had fewer oocytes retrieved [(10.54 (95% CI 10.13–0.95) and 9.15 (95% CI 8.69–9.6), respectively], lower blastocyst transfer [OR 0.24 (95% CI 0.12–0.5), P = 0.0001] and a significantly reduced implantation rate [OR 0.73 (0.58–0.92), P = 0.007]. Limitations reasons for caution: The study is limited by a retrospective design. By limiting the study to a single ET cycle, it was not possible to assess the cumulative outcome including use of all frozen embryos. Wider implications of the findings: Endometriosis has similar phenotypes among women in different populations and would be expected to have a similar effect on fertility. These results are therefore generalizable to other populations of women. Study funding/competing interest(s): None. Trial registration number: Not applicable

Informing thresholds for paediatric transfusion in Africa: the need for a trial [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: Owing to inadequate supplies of donor blood for transfusion in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) World Health Organization paediatric guidelines recommend restrictive transfusion practices, based on expert opinion. We examined whether survival amongst hospitalised children by admission haemoglobin and whether this was influenced by malaria infection and/or transfusion. Methods: A retrospective analysis of standardised clinical digital records in an unselected population of children admitted to a rural hospital in Kenya over an 8-year period. We describe baseline parameters with respect to categories of anaemia and outcome (in-hospital death) by haemoglobin (Hb), malaria and transfusion status. Results: Among 29,226 children, 1,143 (3.9%) had profound anaemia (Hb <4g/dl) and 3,469 (11.9%) had severe anaemia (Hb 4-6g/d). In-hospital mortality rate was 97/1,143 (8.5%) if Hb<4g/dl or 164/2,326 (7.1%) in those with severe anaemia (Hb ≥4.0-<6g/dl). Admission Hb <3g/dl was associated with higher risk of death versus those with higher Hbs (OR=2.41 (95%CI: 1.8 - 3.24; P<0.001), increasing to OR=6.36, (95%CI: 4.21-9.62; P<0.001) in malaria positive children. Conversely, mortality in non-malaria admissions was unrelated to Hb level. Transfusion was associated with a non-significant improvement in outcome if Hb<3g/dl (malaria-only) OR 0.72 (95%CI 0.29 - 1.78), albeit the number of cases were too few to show a statistical difference. For those with Hb levels above 4g/dl, mortality was significantly higher in those receiving a transfusion compared to the non-transfused group. For non-malarial cases, transfusion did not affect survival-status, irrespective of baseline Hb level compared to children who were not transfused at higher Hb levels. Conclusion: Although severe anaemia is common among children admitted to hospital in sSA (~16%), our data do not indicate that outcome is improved by transfusion irrespective of malaria status. Given the limitations of observational studies, clinical trials investigating the role of transfusion in outcomes in children with severe anaemia are warranted

Correlation models for monitoring fetal growth.

Ultrasound growth measurements are monitored to evaluate if a fetus is growing normally compared with a defined standard chart at a specified gestational age. Using data from the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st project, we have modelled the longitudinal dependence of fetal head circumference, biparietal diameter, occipito-frontal diameter, abdominal circumference, and femur length using a two-stage approach. The first stage involved finding a suitable transformation of the raw fetal measurements (as the marginal distributions of ultrasound measurements were non-normal) to standardized deviations (Z-scores). In the second stage, a correlation model for a Gaussian process is fitted, yielding a correlation for any pair of observations made between 14 and 40 weeks. The correlation structure of the fetal Z-score can be used to assess whether the growth, for example, between successive measurements is satisfactory. The paper is accompanied by a Shiny application, see https://lxiao5.shinyapps.io/shinycalculator/

A Competing-Risk Approach for Modeling Length of Stay in Severe Malaria Patients in South-East Asia and the Implications for Planning of Hospital Services.

Background: Management of severe malaria with limited resources requires comprehensive planning. Expected length of stay (LOS) and the factors influencing it are useful in the planning and optimisation of service delivery. Methods: A secondary, competing-risk approach to survival analysis was performed for 1217 adult severe malaria patients from the South-East Asia Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial. Results: Twenty percent of patients died; 95.4% within 7 days compared to 70.3% of those who were discharged. Median time to discharge was 6 days. Compared to quinine, artesunate increased discharge incidence (subdistribution-Hazard ratio, 1.24; [95% confidence interval 1.09-1.40]; P = .001) and decreased incidence of death (0.60; [0.46-0.80]; P < .001). Low Glasgow coma scale (discharge, 1.08 [1.06-1.11], P < .001; death, 0.85 [0.82-0.89], P < .001), high blood urea-nitrogen (discharge, 0.99 [0.99-0.995], P < .001; death, 1.00 [1.00-1.01], P = .012), acidotic base-excess (discharge, 1.05 [1.03-1.06], P < .001; death, 0.90 [0.88-0.93], P < .001), and development of shock (discharge, 0.25 [0.13-0.47], P < .001; death, 2.14 [1.46-3.12], P < .001), or coma (discharge, 0.46 [0.32-0.65], P < .001; death, 2.30 [1.58-3.36], P < .001) decreased cumulative incidence of discharge and increased incidence of death. Conventional Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimated cumulative incidence compared to competing-risk model. Conclusions: Clinical factors on admission and during hospitalisation influence LOS in severe malaria, presenting targets to improve health and service efficiency. Artesunate has the potential to increase LOS, which should be accounted for when planning services. In-hospital death is a competing risk for discharge; an important consideration in LOS models to reduce overestimation of risk and misrepresentation of associations

Evaluation of a measles vaccine campaign by oral-fluid surveys in a rural Kenyan district: interpretation of antibody prevalence data using mixture models

We evaluated the effectiveness of a measles vaccine campaign in rural Kenya, based on oral-fluid surveys and mixture-modelling analysis. Specimens were collected from 886 children aged 9 months to 14 years pre-campaign and from a comparison sample of 598 children aged 6 months post-campaign. Quantitative measles-specific antibody data were obtained by commercial kit. The estimated proportions of measles-specific antibody negative in children aged 0–4, 5–9 and 10–14 years were 51%, 42% and 27%, respectively, pre- campaign and 18%, 14% and 6%, respectively, post-campaign. We estimate a reduction in the proportion susceptible of 65–78%, with ~85% of the population recorded to have received vaccine. The proportion of ‘weak’ positive individuals rose from 35% pre-campaign to 54% post-campaign. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the campaign in reducing susceptibility to measles and demonstrate the potential of oral-fluid studies to monitor the impact of measles vaccination campaigns

Secondary sex ratio in assisted reproduction: an analysis of 1 376 454 treatment cycles performed in the UK.

STUDY QUESTION: Does ART impact the secondary sex ratio (SSR) when compared to natural conception? SUMMARY ANSWER: IVF and ICSI as well as the stage of embryo transfer does impact the overall SSR. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The World Health Organization quotes SSR for natural conception to range between 103 and 110 males per 100 female births. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: A total of 1 376 454 ART cycles were identified, of which 1 002 698 (72.8%) cycles involved IVF or ICSI. Of these, 863 859 (85.2%) were fresh cycles and 124 654 (12.4%) were frozen cycles. Missing data were identified in 14 185 (1.4%) cycles. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: All cycles recorded in the anonymized UK Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) registry database between 1991 and 2016 were analysed. All singleton live births were included, and multiple births were excluded to avoid duplication. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The overall live birth rate per cycle for all IVF and ICSI treatments was 26.2% (n = 262 961), and the singleton live birth rate per cycle was 17.1% (n = 171 399). The overall SSR for this study was 104.0 males per 100 female births (binomial exact 95% CI: 103.1-105.0) for all IVF and ICSI cycles performed in the UK recorded through the HFEA. This was comparable to the overall SSR for England and Wales at 105.3 males per 100 female births (95% CI: 105.2-105.4) from 1991 to 2016 obtained from the Office of National Statistics database. Male predominance was seen with conventional insemination in fresh IVF treatment cycles (SSR 110.0 males per 100 female births; 95% CI: 108.6-111.5) when compared to micro-injection in fresh ICSI treatment cycles (SSR 97.8 males per 100 female births; 95% CI: 96.5-99.2; odds ratio (OR) 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.19, P < 0.0001), as well as with blastocyst stage embryo transfers (SSR 104.8 males per 100 female births; 95% CI: 103.5-106.2) when compared to a cleavage stage embryo transfer (SSR 101.2 males per 100 female births; 95% CI: 99.3-103.1; OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, P = 0.011) for all fertilization methods. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: The quality of the data relies on the reporting system. Furthermore, success rates through ART have improved since 1991, with an increased number of blastocyst stage embryo transfers. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This is the largest study to date evaluating the impact of ART on SSR. The results demonstrate that, overall, ART does have an impact on the SSR when assessed according to the method of fertilization (ICSI increased female births while IVF increased males). However, given the ratio of IVF to ICSI cycles at present with 60% of cycles from IVF and 40% from ICSI, the overall SSR for ART closely reflects the population SSR for, largely, natural conceptions in England and Wales. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: The study received no funding. C.M.B. is a member of the independent data monitoring group for a clinical endometriosis trial by ObsEva. He is on the scientific advisory board for Myovant and medical advisory board for Flo Health. He has received research grants from Bayer AG, MDNA Life Sciences, Volition Rx and Roche Diagnostics as well as from Wellbeing of Women, Medical Research Council UK, the NIH, the UK National Institute for Health Research and the European Union. He is the current Chair of the Endometriosis Guideline Development Group for ESHRE and was a co-opted member of the Endometriosis Guideline Group by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). I.G. has received research grants from Wellbeing of Women, the European Union and Finox. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable

Scientific basis for standardization of fetal head measurements by ultrasound: a reproducibility study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the standard methods for ultrasound measurement of fetal head circumference (HC) and biparietal diameter (BPD) (outer-to-outer (BPDoo) vs outer-to-inner (BPDoi) caliper placement), and compare acquisition of these measurements in transthalamic (TT) vs transventricular (TV) planes. METHODS: This study utilized ultrasound images acquired from women participating in the Oxford arm of the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project. In the first phase of the study, BPDoo and BPDoi were measured on stored images. In the second phase, real-time measurements of BPD, occipitofrontal diameter (OFD) and HC in TT and TV planes were obtained by pairs of sonographers. Reproducibility of measurements made by the same (intraobserver) and by different (interobserver) sonographers, as well as the reproducibility of caliper placement and measurements obtained in different planes, was assessed using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: In Phase I, we analyzed ultrasound images of 108 singleton fetuses. The mean intraobserver and interobserver differences were < 2% (1.34 mm) and the 95% limits of agreement were < 5% (3 mm) for both BPDoo and BPDoi. Neither method for measuring BPD showed consistently better reproducibility. In Phase II, we analyzed ultrasound images of 100 different singleton fetuses. The mean intraobserver and interobserver differences were < 1% (2.26 mm) and the 95% limits of agreement were < 8% (14.45 mm) for all fetal head measurements obtained in TV and TT planes. Neither plane for measuring fetal head showed consistently better reproducibility. Measurement of HC using the ellipse facility was as reproducible as HC calculated from BPD and OFD. OFD by itself was the least reproducible of all fetal head measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Measurements of BPDoi and BPDoo are equally reproducible; however, we believe BPDoo should be used in clinical practice as it allows fetal HC to be measured and compared with neonatal HC. For all head measurements, TV and TT planes provide equally reproducible values at any gestational age, and HC values are similar in both planes. Fetal head measurement in the TT plane is preferable as international standards in this plane are available; however, measurements in the TV plane can be plotted on the same standards. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

The natural history of respiratory syncytial virus in a birth cohort: the influence of age and previous infection on reinfection and disease.

This study aimed to quantify the effect of age, time since last infection, and infection history on the rate of respiratory syncytial virus infection and the effect of age and infection history on the risk of respiratory syncytial virus disease. A birth cohort of 635 children in Kilifi, Kenya, was monitored for respiratory syncytial virus infections from January 31, 2002, to April 22, 2005. Predictors of infection were examined by Cox regression and disease risk by binomial regression. A total of 598 respiratory syncytial virus infections were identified (411 primary, 187 repeat), with 409 determined by antigen assay and 189 by antibody alone (using a "most pragmatic" serologic definition). The incidence decreased by 70% following a primary infection (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.30, 95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.42; P < 0.001) and by 59% following a secondary infection (hazard ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.22, 0.73; P = 0.003), for a period lasting 6 months. Relative to the age group <6 months, all ages exhibited a higher incidence of infection. A lower risk of severe disease following infection was independently associated with increasing age (P < 0.001) but not reinfection. In conclusion, observed respiratory syncytial virus incidence was lowest in the first 6 months of life, immunity to reinfection was partial and short lived, and disease risk was age related