The effect of rainfall variability on maize production in Lagos State, Nigeria

Despite technological advancement in maize seed and production improvement, the climate as a single factor still has significant influence on maize yield in Nigeria. With changes in weather and climate being experienced, the study therefore focused on the effect of climate on maize production which is expressed as a function of the variability in the rainfall pattern in Lagos State. The study employed the use of secondary data of rainfall and maize yield spanning 10 years from 1997 to 2006. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and simple linear regression. The planting date of maize fluctuated between 1999 and 2000 and the yield declined between 1999 - 2000 and 2002-2003 in response to variability in rainfall. Average estimates of rainfall and maize yield were 1,422.9 mm and 2,135 tonnes for the period under study while their variance estimates were 80908.77 mm and 46 tonnes with coefficients of variation of 19.99% and 10.04% respectively. The results also show that average change in rainfall impacted positively on maize yield throughout the period with a slope coefficient of 0.192 which means a unit increase in rainfall will lead to 0.192 unit increase in maize yield. The farmers were encouraged to adopt drought resistance maize varieties and collective irrigation facilities to cope with climate change phenomenon