Quantitative Analyse der sektoralen Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus in der EU

Der ökologische Landbau hat sich in der Europäischen Union im letzten Jahrzehnt äußerst dynamisch entwickelt. In Anbetracht der agrar- und gesellschaftspolitischen Rahmenbedingungen und der steigenden Nachfrage nach ökologisch erzeugten Produkten ist eine weitere Ausdehnung zu erwarten. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht diese Arbeit, welche Folgen eine deutliche Ausdehnung ökologischer Landbausysteme in der Europäischen Union im Hinblick auf Landnutzung, Agrarproduktion, Märkte und Umwelt hat. Für die quantitative Analyse wird das komparativ-statisches Agrarsektormodell CAPRI erweitert und angepasst. Eine Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus auf 10 oder 20 % der LF wirkt sich auf eine Reihe von politikrelevanten Parametern des EU-Agrarsektors aus. Die Effekte fallen jedoch zum Teil deutlich geringer aus, als dies ausgehend von einzelbetrieblichen Vergleichsrechnungen prognostiziert wird. Folgende Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus auf 10 oder 20 % der LF lassen sich festhalten: - Änderungen bei den Produktionsstrukturen - Die Erzeugung fast aller Produkte geht bei steigender Bedeutung des ökologischen Landbaus zurück, Quotenprodukte stellen hier eine wichtige Ausnahme dar - Für eine Reihe von landwirtschaftlichen Erzeugnissen ist aufgrund des Produktionsrückgangs mit einem leichten Anstieg der Erzeugerpreise zu rechnen. Eine Ausnahme stellen die Preise für Getreide und Kälber dar. - Im Hinblick auf die Umweltwirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus weist die quantitative Analyse ausgewählter Agrarumweltindikatoren auf eine positive Gesamtentwicklung bei Nährstoffüberschüssen, bei der Verwendung von Pflanzenschutzmitteln und bei der Emission von Treibhausgasen hin. In einem zweiten Arbeitsschritt untersucht die vorliegende Arbeit, inwieweit sich innerhalb des gewählten Modellansatzes Aspekte der Prognose und Politikfolgenabschätzung für den ökologischen Landbau integrieren lassen. Dazu werden die Auswirkungen der Änderungen verschiedener exogener Einflussfaktoren auf die Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus analysiert. Neben der derzeit viel diskutierten Erhöhung der Förderung für den ökologischen Landbau und einer Finanzierung durch den gleichzeitigen Abbau der Stützung in anderen Bereichen des Agrarsektors werden auch die Folgen eines vollständigen Abbaus der Preisaufschläge für ökologisch erzeugte Produkte betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse der Modellrechnungen belegen, dass die Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus in erheblichem Maße von der regionalen Verteilung und der Produktionsrichtung der umstellenden Betriebe abhängen. Damit eröffnet sich für die Politik die Möglichkeit, über die Ausgestaltung der Förderung aktiv die Erreichung definierter Ziele effizienter zu verfolgen. Um für eine zielorientierte Ausgestaltung der Förderung weitergehende Empfehlungen geben zu können, sollten zukünftige Untersuchungen neben der Folgenabschätzung und der Analyse geeigneter Maßnahmen zur Förderung einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus auch die Diskussion des „optimalen“ Anteils des ökologischen Landbaus vor dem Hintergrund der jeweiligen Ziele im Rahmen einer Zielanalyse bzw. Ziel-Mittel-Analyse umfassen. Angesichts der Vielzahl der agrarpolitischen Ziele und der komplexen Wechselbeziehungen bei gleichzeitig noch unvollständiger Informationslage stellt die Bearbeitung dieser Fragestellung allerdings ein ambitiöses Vorhaben dar, das voraussichtlich nur schrittweise zu lösen sein wird. Kurzfassung der Zusammenfassung aus: Offermann, F. (2003): Quantitative Analyse der sektoralen Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus in der EU. Berliner Schriften zur Agrar- und Umweltökonomik, Band 5. Aachen: Shaker Verlag

Middle atmosphere thermal structure during MAP/WINE

Middle atmosphere temperatures were measured during the MAP/WINE campaign by various ground-based techniques, by rocket instruments, and by satellites. Respective data were analyzed for atmospheric thermal mean state as well as for long and short period variations. A brief survey of the results is given. Monthly mean temperatures agree well with the new CIRA model. Long period (planetary) waves frequently exhibit peculiar vertical amplitude and phase structures, resembling those of standing waves. Short period oscillations tend to begin breaking well below the stratosphere

Key issues of linking models for policy impact assessment in agriculture

Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Global budget of stratospheric trace constituents (GLOBUS). MAP/GLOBUS 1983: A review

MAP/GLOBUS 1983 was a project for the study of stratospheric trace gases and dynamics. A respective field campaign was performed in September/October 1983 in Western Europe. A large number of measurements were taken by instruments based on the ground, on airplane, balloons, and satellite. The structure of the campaign is described, and a survey of the results are given

Economic Performance of Organic Farms in Europe

Economic aspects are increasingly determining the acceptance and further expansion of organic farming in Europe. Drawing on data and studies from the 15 EU member states and three non-EU countries (Norway, Switzerland and Czech Republic), this book provides a comprehensive overview of the economic performance of organic farms in Europe. The analysis of yields, costs, prices and support payments offers an insight into the profits of organic farms of various types and in different countries. Specific attention is paid to the impact of the 1992 CAP reform on the profitability of organic farming. This book is aimed at policy makers, the private sector, researchers and students in the field of organic farming

Potential of differentiated payment levels based on standard cost approaches: A case study of selected rural development measures in Germany

In accordance with EU regulations, payment levels for several measures of rural development programs are calculated on the basis of standard cost approaches, using 'typical’ or average figures for costs incurred and income forgone. Resulting uniform payment rates have been frequently discussed and criticised as being inefficient, having a low cost-effectiveness and generating excessive windfall profits. However, few empirical studies exist which quantitatively examine potentials of a more differentiated standard cost approach. By using German farm accountancy data, this study analyses effects of a payment differentiation according to regional and farm individual characteristics on producer rents, budget expenditures and economic efficiency. Preliminary results show that though overcompensation could be reduced in most cases, savings in budget expenditure are often small and might be even offset by increasing administration costs. Generally our analysis indicates that potential benefits of differentiated standard cost approaches can be partly exploited if a) variances of the cost of participation in the universe of farms are high and the discriminatory natures of differentiation are significant, and b) positive correlations between costs and environmental benefits are strong

Impact of the 2003 CAP reform on organic farming in Germany

The financial performance of organic and conventional farming is highly influenced by the EU direct payment policy. While organic farms receive considerable support from agrienvironmental programmes, the design of the first pillar put organic farming at a disadvantage in the past. The 2003 CAP reform has changed this situation particularly by decoupling direct payments and reducing price support. This paper has therefore the aim to identify and assess the impact of the CAP reform on the relative profitability and production structure of organic farms in Germany. The statistical analysis of FADN data from the years 2003/04 and 2006/07 suggests that differences in payments from the first pillar decreased, affecting positively the relative profitability of organic farms. A survey among German organic farmers revealed however that only a minority attributes substantial changes in profits to the CAP reform and decoupling, respectively. The outcomes of this investigation suggest that organic farmers still require more specific information and advice in order to use the new possibilities given through decoupling

Impact of the EU Common Agricultural Policy on Organic in Comparison to Conventional Farms

Farms in the EU receive considerable support from the Common Agricultural Policy. Support for organic and conventional farms is analysed, covering a wide range of different Common Agricultural Policy support measures. The current design of the Common Market Organisations tends to disadvantage organic farming systems, although developments in the last two CAP reforms (year 1992 and 2000) and the latest reform (2003) have reduced the discrimination of extensive farming systems and now provide opportunities to introduce measures to meet some of the needs of organic farms.agricultural policy, farm accounts, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18, Q12,

Potential of differentiated payment levels based on standard cost approaches: A case study of selected rural development measures in Germany

In accordance with EU regulations, payment levels for several measures of rural development programs are calculated on the basis of standard cost approaches, using 'typical’ or average figures for costs incurred and income forgone. Resulting uniform payment rates have been frequently discussed and criticised as being inefficient, having a low cost-effectiveness and generating excessive windfall profits. However, few empirical studies exist which quantitatively examine potentials of a more differentiated standard cost approach. By using German farm accountancy data, this study analyses effects of a payment differentiation according to regional and farm individual characteristics on producer rents, budget expenditures and economic efficiency. Preliminary results show that though overcompensation could be reduced in most cases, savings in budget expenditure are often small and might be even offset by increasing administration costs. Generally our analysis indicates that potential benefits of differentiated standard cost approaches can be partly exploited if a) variances of the cost of participation in the universe of farms are high and the discriminatory natures of differentiation are significant, and b) positive correlations between costs and environmental benefits are strong.differentiated payment levels, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, standard cost approach, rural development schemes, agri-environmental measures,

Impacts of Decoupling and Milk Quota Trade on the French and German Dairy Sectors

This paper analyses the impacts of the 2003 CAP reform and of milk quota trade at the national level. To this end, a mathematical programming model has been further developed for Germany and extended to other main milk-producing EU member states like France. Homogeneous farm groups are built on the basis of EU Farm Accountancy Data Network. The results show that quotas will be fully used in both countries if quota trade is possible. A clear tendency in the reallocation of production from small towards large farms can be seen in all regions for France. In Germany, the redistribution of direct payments induced by the implementation of the regional scheme of decoupled payments leads to higher reductions of income in dairy & beef farms than in France.2003 CAP reform, milk quota trade, model, mathematical programming, International Relations/Trade,