A social-ecological approach to identify and quantify biodiversity tipping points in South America’s seasonal dry ecosystems

ropical dry forests and savannas harbour unique biodiversity and provide critical ES, yet they are under severe pressure globally. We need to improve our understanding of how and when this pressure provokes tipping points in biodiversity and the associated social-ecological systems. We propose an approach to investigate how drivers leading to natural vegetation decline trigger biodiversity tipping and illustrate it using the example of the Dry Diagonal in South America, an understudied deforestation frontier. The Dry Diagonal represents the largest continuous area of dry forests and savannas in South America, extending over three million km² across Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Paraguay. Natural vegetation in the Dry Diagonal has been undergoing large-scale transformations for the past 30 years due to massive agricultural expansion and intensification. Many signs indicate that natural vegetation decline has reached critical levels. Major research gaps prevail, however, in our understanding of how these transformations affect the unique and rich biodiversity of the Dry Diagonal, and how this affects the ecological integrity and the provisioning of ES that are critical both for local livelihoods and commercial agriculture.Fil: Thonicke, Kirsten. Institute for Climate Impact Research ; AlemaniaFil: Langerwisch, Fanny. Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Alemania. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; República ChecaFil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Technische Universitat Carolo Wilhelmina Zu Braunschweig.; AlemaniaFil: Leitão, Pedro J.. Humboldt Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Technische Universitat Carolo Wilhelmina Zu Braunschweig.; AlemaniaFil: Václavík, Tomáš. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Alemania. Palacký University Olomouc; República ChecaFil: Alencar, Anne. Ministerio da Agricultura Pecuaria e Abastecimento de Brasil. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria; BrasilFil: Simões, Margareth. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA); BrasilFil: Scheiter, Simon. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA); Brasil. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Langan, Liam. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Bustamante, Mercedes. Universidade do Brasília; BrasilFil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; ArgentinaFil: Hirota, Marina. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; Brasil. Universidade Estadual de Campinas; BrasilFil: Börner, Jan. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Rajao, Raoni. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; BrasilFil: Soares Filho, Britaldo. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; BrasilFil: Yanosky, Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología; ParaguayFil: Ochoa Quinteiro, José Manuel. Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; ColombiaFil: Seghezzo, Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; ArgentinaFil: Conti, Georgina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: de la Vega Leiner, Anne Cristina. Universität Greifswald; Alemani