Macroeconomic Policy, Liberalization and Transition: Hungary's Case

The paper concentrates on economic developments; it does not treat issues related to domestic and foreign policy. It may well be the case that in the latter fields the trends are not encouraging, but these problems are beyond the focus of our paper. One of the major points we wish to demonstrate is that in spite of the clearly unfavourable recent economic developments, it would be too early to attribute Hungary`s present economic problems to its specific - "non-shock" - approach to the transition. Economic transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy has no precedents and experience clearly indicates that almost all respective predictions turned out to be unfounded. The transition seems to be an extremely difficult Process, involving heavy economic and social costs. Temporary successes may be followed by lengthy set-backs. This is not to say that without political and economic transformation countries of the region would be better off; it only implies that as yet there are no solid grounds for forming strong judgements on the observed performance or the strategies pursued by individual countries. This paper discusses some of the major macroeconomic issues related to economic transition in Hungary and touches certain points related to comparison with other countries of the region. The first section treats the economic legacy of the democratically elected Hungarian government. The second deals with the initial policy-dilemma: shock-therapy or gradual changes. The major macroeconomic developments and policy issues of 1991-1992 are covered in section three. The fourth section deals with the major challenges facing the country in and after 1993. As a conclusion, the outlook of the Hungarian economy is discussed, comparisons with other countries of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) are drawn and some lessons of the Hungarian experience are spelled out. It should be emphasized that the present survey does not cover the specific issues related to privatization in Hungary and in other CEE countries. This is explained by two reasons. First, the (English language) literature on the Hungarian transition and those of other CEE economies is saturated with publications on privatization; there is very little one can add to the already existing, vast amount of information.1 Second, and more importantly, those issues of macroeconomic policy that this study wishes to treat are not related directly to the problems of privatization. To put it more strongly, the over-discussed and over-politicised question of privatization is not considered to be a fundamental issue from the point of view of short-term macroeconomic management by the authors. The latter questions are covered only in the context of macroeconomic policies in this paper.Economic transition, Economic development, Hungary

The terms-of-trade effects from the elimination of state trading in Soviet - Hungarian trade

Economists have debated whether the Soviet Union subsidized trade with its Eastern European partners in the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). Effective January 1, 1991, former CMEA members implemented their"switchover"decision to convert to world market prices denominated in convertible currency. The switchover dramatically reduced the role of"state trading"by permitting direct enterprise to enterprise transactions denominated and settled in convertible currency. The authors made an intensive study of the trading relationship between Hungary and the Soviet Union as a case study on the terms-of-trade issue. A detailed empirical investigation of prices in Soviet-Hungarian trade before and after the switchover provides some indication of the terms-of-trade loss that Hungary is likely to suffer as a result of the switchover of its trading relationship with the Soviet Union. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the authors find that the majority of Hungarian firms exporting to the Soviet Union have been disfavored by the combination of the payments mechanism, exchange rate, tax and subsidy policies. The experience of early 1991 suggests a significant decline is likely to occur in Soviet imports from Hungary during the remainder of the year. A variety of problems account for the decline, many of them specific to internal conditions in the Soviet Union.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT

FDI flows and reinvested earnings: statistical measurement, perceptions and economic interpretation

Using Hungarian data for the period 2008–2014 as an example, the study examines the effects of two internationally endorsed methodological revisions affecting the interpretation and quantification of RE (reinvested earnings). The empirical importance of the revision introduced in 2008 is attested by the fact that while the present methodology indicates a net FDI (foreign direct investment) inflow of 10.5 billion euros, the one applied until 2007 would suggest a cumulative net outflow of 5.6 billion euros from Hungary in the period 2008–2014. The huge difference between the two is hidden in statistics on the IIP (international investment position) of the country, which is beyond the focus of most analysts. Although the revisions resulted in the congruence of statistical data with economic concepts of FDI income and RE, they may have become less expressive of the decisions and behaviour of foreign investors. In addition, the revisions lead to breaks in national time series and raise questions regarding comparability of data across countries. For comparisons over time and between countries, the author recommends data on changes in (net) FDI stocks, unaffected by the methodological revisions

Utilization of mental health services among urban youth with emotional and behavioral disorders: racial/ethnic differences in emergency department and outpatient visits

Rising rates of pediatric emergency department (ED) visits for psychiatric reasons pose a significant burden for healthcare systems in the United States. Utilization of outpatient mental health treatment by youth and their families may prevent some behavioral health crises requiring emergency services, as well as non-urgent ED visits where emergency care is not necessary. This study utilized de-identified electronic health records to examine seasonal and secular patterns in both psychiatric ED presentation and outpatient mental health care utilization among youth, as well as the association of outpatient mental health care with psychiatric ED visits. Racial/ethnic differences in service utilization were also examined. The study sample consisted of 25,545 school-aged youth who were diagnosed with an emotional or behavioral disorder and received services at Boston Medical Center (BMC) between 2009 and 2018. Results indicate significant seasonal patterns in both psychiatric ED visits and outpatient mental healthcare that parallel the school calendar, with more youth receiving services during the school year than in the summer. Mental healthcare among youth of color was more closely aligned with the school calendar than among White youth, suggesting that schools may be more instrumental for the referral of youth of color into mental healthcare than for White youth. In addition, youth who accessed outpatient care were at decreased risk for psychiatric ED presentation as compared to youth who had not accessed outpatient services. Longer duration of outpatient treatment and a greater number of visits were associated with increased risk for ED presentation, whereas greater frequency of visits was associated with decreased risk for ED presentation. Findings suggest that preventive outreach for youth and families may be particularly helpful in late summer and early winter, prior to significant increases in both psychiatric ED visits and outpatient service use