Adaptation and mitigation strategies in Northern Eurasian boreal forests

Boreal forests of Northern Eurasia are experiencing ongoing changes in climate, strong impacts by humans including transformation of previously untouched landscapes, and dramatically accelerating disturbance regimes. Current global and regional climatic models predict for this region the most dramatic climatic change over the globe. Unregulated and often destructive anthropogenic impacts on the environment and natural landscapes may substantially accelerate the negative consequences of climatic change. Complexities of the situation are evident: need to take decisions for underspecified dynamics systems under uncertainties; relevancy to consider dual strategy that integrates mitigative and adaptive measures, particularly under no-regret and win-win considerations; necessity to derive minimum mitigation standards from the limits of adaptation; inevitability of non-linear responses and feedbacks and probability to meet surprises in the biosphere's behavior; etc. It defines a need for development of new philosophy of cognition and policy making by using open, iterative, distributed-modular systems based on shared pools of models, tools libraries, and data sets. Such a situation defines an obligatory need to comprehensively use methodologies of applied system analysis and integrated modeling. Following the basic steps of applied systems analysis (fixation of the problem; diagnostics; (list of) stakeholders; problem mess; setting the goal; criteria; experimental research; analysis of input information; selection of the strategy, development and improvement of the model; depiction of alternatives; and decision making implementation) put the modeling on a solid scientific basis. Integrated models that include components of different nature (ecological, economic, social) are considered as a major tool of perception of future trajectories of forests in a changing world in spite of the fact that application of integrated modeling generates many cognitive problems, trade-offs and challenges. A central point of adaptation and mitigation strategies is development of robust policies. Robust policies should (1) ensure long-term stability of systems. behavior against multiple events (scenarios); (2) account for extreme events that require specific models; (3) consider uncertainties in a possible comprehensive and explicit form; (4) allow for flexibility to form a diversity of decisions dependent on associated risks and costs, performance indicators of stakeholders, (5) consider in an explicit spatio-temporal way ecological, economic and social dimensions, (6) collective risk; (7) include safety criteria, constraints, and performance indicators of involved agents. Adaptation and mitigation measures in the forest sector could be effective if they are part of a wide strategy which would involve all relevant sectors of national economy, particularly energy, industry, agriculture, tourism etc. combined in common political and institutional frameworks. Adaptation and anticipatory strategy should be an inherent part of transition to sustainable forest management. However, background philosophy of classical forestry becomes less and less reliable in a continuously changing world. Thus, modeling becomes a working tool for practical adaptive forest management. Adaptive forest management is defined as a management approach that acknowledges the lack of unequivocal and definite knowledge about the ways in which forest ecosystems work, and the uncertainty that dominates interactions with them. We consider major requirements to and specifics of adaptation and mitigation strategies in boreal forests which include inter alia: (1) a concept of sustainable development and sustainable forest management of regions of high latitudes; (2) integrated land observing systems; (3) a new system of specially protected territories; (4) new strategy and institutional background of forest fire protection; (5) legislative and normative base of adaptation and mitigation as a background of adaptive forest management; (6) system of adaptation of structure of boreal landscapes to climate change; and (7) considering management of major biogeochemical cycles, primarily carbon cycle, as a crucial issue of future strategies. We illustrate some practical results obtained by IIASA-ESM Integrated Modeling Cluster and other approaches. These examples show that recommended strategies could result in higher stability and productivity of forest ecosystems, increased abundance of favored species and reduced fragmentation of forests. However, the biggest problem deals with difficulties to reduce losses from worsening the environment and disturbances. No single strategy appears able to achieve all possible forest management objectives, and adaptation and mitigation strategies should be connected to regional climatic, ecological and social peculiarities

Adaptive Dynamics and Technological Change

This paper is about the emergence of technological variety arising from market interaction and technological innovation. Existing products in the market compete with innovative ones resulting in a slow and continuous evolution of the underlying technological characteristics of successful products. When technological evolution reaches an equilibrium, it can either be an ESS (Evolutionary Stable Strategy), where marginally innovative products do not penetrate the market, or a branching point, where new products coexist along with established ones. Thus, technological branching can give rise to product variety. In the paper we first introduce Adaptive Dynamics (AD), a recently proposed theory of evolutionary processes, aiming at modelling various features of technological change. Then, a first application of AD in economics is presented and discussed in detail. The limitations of the AD approach, as well as some promising further applications in economics and social sciences, are briefly discussed at the concluding section

Banda Aceh-The Value of Earth Observation Data in Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction: A Case Study

On 26 December 2004, Banda Aceh in Indonesia was at the center of one of the worst natural disasters to affect mankind. Large amounts of international aid poured in to assist in the relief and reconstruction efforts. Amongst this effort, were investments in basic earth observation data from in-situ, airborne and space observations. While the use of this data is assumed to be crucial, few efforts have gone into quantifying the benefits of its acquisition. The objectives of this study were to interview a cross-section of agencies operating in Banda Aceh and across the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on the use, sources and quality of earth observation data in the relief/reconstruction effort; and to analyze and quantify the value that earth observation data brings to the relief/reconstruction effort based on the survey results and specific examples. Key findings from the interviews point to an overall improvement in the spatial data situation since the tsunami. Problems identified included insufficient training, lack of timely data and sometimes poor spatial resolution. Specific examples of the cost-benefits of earth observation data were typically on the order of millions of dollars and involved large time savings. IIASA is one of 12 partners in the European Union sponsored project "Global Earth Observation/Benefit Estimation: Now, Next and Emerging" (GEO-BENE). Additional GEO-BENE partner countries include Germany, Switzerland, Slovakia, Netherlands, Finland, South Africa and Japan. Within GEO-BENE we are developing methodologies and analytical tools to assess societal benefits of GEO in nine societal benefit areas- one of which is disasters. The tsunami affected province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, and specifically Banda Aceh, has been selected as a case study. Other case studies representing different societal benefit areas include: biodiversity in South Africa, health and climate in Finland, fire in Europe, etc. For more information please refer to: www.geo-bene.eu

GEO Information For Disaster Recovery -- Case Study: The Use of Orthophotos in Aceh, Indonesia

This study, carried out between July-September 2008, looks specifically at the use of a high resolution aerial photograph (orthophoto) data set acquired in June 2005 over post tsunami Aceh, Indonesia. The study clearly demonstrates the benefit of the use of EO data for disaster recovery showing that the orthophoto data set, costing 1.4 million Euro, critically supported projects (primary users of the data set), worth over 16 times its actual cost (28 million Euro) and provided support to projects worth over 600 times its actual cost (880 million Euro). The study concludes that a simple robust methodology to quantify the benefit of EO data in disaster recovery may be implemented by monitoring the total costs of projects that are critically supported by the EO data set. To implement that monitoring mechanism, a robust and straightforward method must be in place with the EO data distributor that records simple criteria for each of the data users and related projects. The report provides a number of lessons that have been learnt from the spatial data initiatives between Official Development Agencies and the Government of Indonesia in response to the Tsunami. The report recommends that in order to ensure that the spatial data is used to its greatest benefit, prior to the initiation of any campaign, the donor funding the project must ensure that there is a defined and clearly proven, transparent, and accountable mechanism to ensure that the data is effectively delivered to the humanitarian aid community in a timely and efficient manner

System dynamics model for analyzing and measuring the benefits of Global Earth Observation

The underlying Earth system and socio-economic system components of GEOSS are strongly interlinked forming a "fine" (complex) dynamic system. In order to quantify the total system benefit of GEOSS there was developed a dynamic computer simulation model called 'FeliX (Full of Economic-Environment Linkages and Integration dX/dt). The studies focus on exploring economic and environmental linkages and interrelations within and between specific Social Benefits Areas (SBAs), and measuring benefits of Global Earth Observation (GEO) across such defined systems. The model aggregates findings from particular case studies conducted as a part of the GEO-BENE project in particular SBAs. It maps in an explicit manner important elements of complex ecosystem. The simulation conducted in a dedicated, user-friendly simulator allows for analysis of the impact of GEO and for testing various scenarios and policies. Although the total system benefit is strongly policy scenario dependent we find that the total system benefits across all SBAs exceed the costs of the respective GEOSS

Impact of Global Earth Observation - Systemic view across GEOSS societal benefit area

The work of the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) is perceived as instrumental to attain sustainable dEvelopment goals and to be a major driver of how the society-technology-environment system is managed. However, appropriate scientific methodologies to assess the benefits of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and validate investments in Earth observation infrastrucure have been missing. This paper presents a systems approach to measure and analyze the impact oF Glbal Earth Observation across the nine Societal Benefit Areas defined by GEO. The methodological framework presented here was developed and applied to be complete across space, time and sectors through Integration and aggregation. Apart from the general assessment framework, we present some speciFics of the numerical tool, which is based on System Dynamics modeling and simulation technique. Our results indicate that through the total system benefits are strongly policy dependent, improvements of GEOSS per se and data availability and interoperability, the accrued benefits are large and have a great potential shaping mankind's course to sustainability

Defining New Global Land-use Map in 2050 by Including Environmental Flow Requirements

Allocation of agricultural commodities and water resources is subject to changes in climate, demographics and dietary patterns. The use of integrated assessment modeling frameworks that combine climate, hydrological, crop and economic models anticipate those future changes. Results from previous integrated assessments have almost always neglected water resources or included them only in a broad way. The focus of this study is on how the inclusion of water resources affects future land use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used two general circulation model (GCM) simulations of climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the Variable Monthly Flow (VMF) method to calculate environmental flow requirements (EFRs). Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage and to protect freshwater ecosystems

The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design

Climate change mitigation policies for the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector are commonly assessed based on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) derived from optimization models or engineering approaches. Yet, little is known about the space of validity of MACCs and how they are influenced by changes in main underlying drivers. In this study, we apply the Global Forest Model (G4M) to explore the sensitivity of MACCs to variation of socioeconomic drivers of deforestation, afforestation, and forest management activities. Particularly, three key factors are considered: (I) wood price, as an indicator of timber market developments; (II) agricultural land price, as a proxy representing the developments on agricultural markets; and (III) corruption coefficient, representing the progress in institutional development and measuring abatement costs use efficiency. The results indicate that the MACCs are more sensitive to the corruption coefficient than to agricultural land price and wood price. Furthermore, we find that the MACCs are more robust with high carbon dioxide (CO2) price and that the sensitivity of the MACCs is higher at low CO2 prices. In general, it can be concluded that when assessing medium-term mitigation policies characterized by low CO2 prices, MACCs need to be developed in-line with institutions currently in place. When designing long-term mitigation policy characterized by high CO2 prices, the role of the analyzed drivers in MACCs estimation is less important