BOOTSTRAPPING IN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS: AN APPLICATION TO THE PORK SECTOR

Standard bootstrap method is used to generate confidence intervals (CIs) of impulse response functions of VAR and SVAR models in the pork sector. In the VAR model, the bootstrap method does not produce significant different results from Monte Carlo simulations. In the SVAR analysis, on the other hand, the bootstrap CIs are significantly different from Monte Carlo CIs after a six period forecast intervals. This suggests that the choice of method used to measure reliability of IRFs is not trivial. Furthermore, bootstrap CIs in SVAR model seem to be more stable than MC CIs, which tend to be wider in the longer horizons.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Analisis Six Sigma Untuk Peningkatan Kualitas Produk Line 28 Departemen Sewing Di PT. Apparel One Indonesia

The title of this research is Six Sigma Analysis for Product Quality Improvement in Line 28 Sewing Department PT. Apparel One Indonesia. This study aims to propose improvement to the process of sewing in Line 28 of PT. Apparel One Indonesia. Compared to the other line, Line 28 has the higher defect. This study use Six Sigma which begin with the define, measure, analyze and improve phase. In the define phase, there are many kind of defect such as dirty, accessories, tension, printing / embro, skip, hole / needle hole, poor trimming, shading, measurement and missing. In the measure phase, CTQ is defined as much as 5 types of defect (skip, dirty, poor trimming, broken, tension). The type of defect that most common is skip. DPMO value is 9427.06 with sigma level 3.85. In analyze, 6 sigma level is determined as target then DPMO should be decrease 99.8% and sigma level should be increase 55.43% from the baseline performance. Fishbone diagram is then used to analyze the source of the problem by dividing it into four factors, namely human, machine factor, method factor and material factors. In the improve phase, improvements is proposed based on the analysis of the source of the problem before

A Preliminary Criteria and Classification of Land Degradation Level on Dryland (Case Study : Dryland in Bogor Regency)

Optimization of dry land utilization in Indonesia including in Bogor Regency is generally still has a lot of constraints. One of the causes is land degradation. At the moment, land degradation inventory is still resulting tentative acreages, since the criterion and overcome priority were different among institutions. This research aims (1) to know variables affecting level of land degradation, and (2) to compose criterion (classes range) andclassification of land degradation level in dry land both for reconnaissance and semi-detail scales based on variables affecting level of degradation. The research was conducted at three subdistricts, namely Sukamakmur, Babakan Madang and Cigudeg subdistricts. Data was collected on surveys through a case study. Biophysical data and soil samples were collected at60 key regions (derived from 3 subdistricts x 5 land critical levels x 4 replications). On each key region, undisturbed and composite soil samples were collected, altogether 60 undisturbed and 60 composite soil samples. The data were analyzed using discriminant analysis and cluster analysis. This research was resulting three criterions (range of classes) for five variables determining level of land degradation for reconnaissance and eight variables for semi-detail scales. The five variables for reconnaissance scale were type of bedrock, slope, conservation practices (P-value), silt percentage, and land use/vegetation (Cvalue). The eight variables for semi-detail scale were type of bedrock, slope, conservation practices (P-value), silt percentage, land use/vegetation (C-value), P-available, exchangeable Al, and H. This research had also generated three degradation levels for reconnaissance and semi-detail scales. The classification of land degradation for reconnaissance scale were (1) slightly degraded land (score <16), (2) moderately degraded land (score 16-39),and (3) strongly degraded land (score >39). Whilst, the classification of land degradation for semi-detail scale were (1) slightly degraded land (score <15), (2) moderately degraded land (score 15-38), and (3) strongly degraded land (score > 38)

Pengaruh Bauran Pemasaran (Produk, Harga, Lokasi, Dan Promosi) Terhadap Minat Beli Konsumen Pada Hotel Budget Di Kawasan Surabaya Pusat

: The rapid growth of hospitality industry, which lately more focusing on hotel budget in the center of Surabaya, causing a very high competition between those hotels. This research is done to get to know which marketing mix factor has significant effect towards customer's buying intention of hotel budget in the center of Surabaya city. The data processing method is done with quantitative causal with analitical descriptive statistic and multiple linear regression. Researchers find out that product, price, and promotion has positive and significant impact towards customer's buying intention. Promotion is the most influential factor towards customer's buying intention of hotel budget in the center of Surabaya city

Faktor yang Berhubungan dengan Pemeriksaan Antenatal Care (Anc) Kunjungan 1 – Kunjungan 4 (K1 – K4) pada Ibu Hamil di RSUD Kota Kendari Tahun 2016

Angka Kematian Ibu (AKI) merupakan salah satu indikator yang peka terhadap kualitas danaksesibilitas fasilitas pelayanan kesehatan. Antenatal Care (ANC) adalah pemeriksaan kehamilanuntuk mengoptimalkan kesehatan mental dan fisik ibu hamil, sehingga mampu menghadapipersalinan, kala nifas, persiapan pemberian ASI dan kembalinya kesehatan reproduksi secara wajar.Beberapa faktor dapat mempengaruhi pemeriksaan Antenatal Care Kunjungan 1 – Kunjungan 4,seperti yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini. Penelitian ini merupakan survey analitik denganrancangan cross sectional study. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada hubungan antaradukungan petugas kesehatan dengan pemeriksaan Antenatal care dengan analisis statistik Chi Squarediperoleh nilai p value 0,57. p>α sehingga hipotesis nol diterima. Pada variabel status pekerj aandiperoleh pvalue0,50. pvaluevalue>α sehingga hipotesis nol diterima. Pada variabel dukungan keluargadiperoleh pvalueatau nilai signifikansi adalah 0,3 dan α adalah 0,5. pα, maka hipotesis nol diterima atau tidak adahubungan antara kepercayaan dengan pemeriksaan antenatal care

Information System Development for Web Based Routine Reporting of Pneumonia in Acute Respiratory Infection Control Program at Semarang District Health Office

Evaluation activities for a program of Acute Respiratory Tract Infection Disease Control at SemarangDistrict Health Office were not optimal because required information from a routine report couldnot be used to support evaluation activities. Some problems existing on current information systemof pneumonia routine reporting were as follows: an officer had a difficulty to change or re-access pneumonia information, resulted information was incomplete and unclear, and submission of areport was not timely. This research aimed to develop information system of Pneumonia routinereporting based on web on the program of Acute Respiratory Tract Infection Disease Control atSemarang District Health Office.Design of this research was pre-experiment with one group pretest-posttest approach. In addition,development of the system used the methods of Framework for the Application of System Techniques(FAST). Subjects consisted of a system user at District Health Office and four pilot health centers.Data were collected using methods of observation, indepth interview, and a closed-endedquestionnaire. Furthermore, data were analyzed using content analysis and Wilcoxon test.This research resulted information system of Pneumonia routine reporting based on web on theprogram of Acute Respiratory Tract Infection Disease Control to solve problems happened in theold system. The result of Wilcoxon test revealed that there were any quality differences of informationin terms of the aspect of easiness (p=0.0001), the aspect of completeness (p=0.0001), the aspect ofclarity (p=0.0001), and the aspect of timeliness (p=0.0001) before and after developing theinformation system.As a suggestion, Semarang District Health Office needs to have commitment to optimally operatethe new system. Additionally, data reported from health centers to District Health Office must beaccurate in accordance with reality in the fields

Mobility of Discrete Solitons in Quadratically Nonlinear Media

We study the mobility of solitons in second-harmonic-generating lattices. Contrary to what is known for their cubic counterparts, discrete quadratic solitons are mobile not only in the one-dimensional (1D) setting, but also in two dimensions (2D). We identify parametric regions where an initial kick applied to a soliton leads to three possible outcomes, namely, staying put, persistent motion, or destruction. For the 2D lattice, it is found that, for the solitary waves, the direction along which they can sustain the largest kick and can attain the largest speed is the diagonal. Basic dynamical properties of the discrete solitons are also discussed in the context of an analytical approximation, in terms of an effective Peierls-Nabarro potential in the lattice setting.Comment: 4 page

Penerapan Model Pembelajaran Contextual Teaching and Learning (Ctl) Untuk Meningkatkan Keterampilan Menulis Puisi Anak Siswa Kelas III SD Negeri 147 Pekanbaru

The problem this research is the students writing skills of childrenpoetry third grade students through the learning model SD Negeri 147 PekanbaruContextual Learning Model (CTL). This research subject were students of (III) SD Negeri147 Pekanbaru 2014/2015 school year the were onlyas 35 students. While objects inthis research is to improve the writing skills of children through models poetryContextual Learning Model (CTL). This research was conducted in two cycles, the firstcycle consists of two meetings with one end of a cycle and repeat the second sklus alsoconsists of two cycles consist of two meetings with one cycle replications. The datacollection instruments in this study was the observation sheet teacher and studentobservation sheet and assessment sheet results. The level of students\u27 abilities beforeaction categorized as low to the score with average 62.71. While the value of MasteryMinimum Criteria 70. Among the students who totaled 35 people only 15 people whoreached KKM with the increased about 42.85%. At the first UAS student skill levelsrose by an average increased about 71.02 with both categories. While the skill level ofthe child after the act of writing poetry UAS II with an average increased about 84,30with very good category. The data collection instruments using teacher observationsheets and sheets of observations of students during the learning process were studentsof (III) SD Negeri 147 Pekanbaru, the percentage of teachers in the first cycle ofactivity first meeting of 60.71% with enough categories, at the second meeting of thefirst cycle of 71.42%. Furthermore, the percentage of the second cycle of the firstmeeting of 85.71% with the good category, at the second meeting of the second cycle of92.85%. Furthermore, the activity of the first cycle students first meeting with apercentage of 57,14% sufficiently categories, the second meeting of the first cycle of67.85% with the good category. Furthermore, the second cycle of the first meeting witha good 78.57%, in the second meeting of the second cycle 89.28 with very goodcategory. From the above shows that through Contextual Learning Model Learning (CTL)can increase the skill of writing poetry Indonesian children students of (III) SD Negeri147 Pekanbaru