Having a happy spouse is associated with lowered risk of mortality

Studies have shown that individuals’ choice of a life partner predicts their life outcomes, from their relationship satisfaction to their career success. The present study examined whether the reach of one’s spouse extends even further, to the ultimate life outcome: mortality. A dyadic survival analysis using a representative sample of elderly couples (N = 4,374) followed for up to 8 years showed that a 1-standard-deviation-higher level of spousal life satisfaction was associated with a 13% lower mortality risk. This effect was robust to controlling for couples’ socioeconomic situation (e.g., household income), both partners’ sociodemographic characteristics, and baseline health. Exploratory mediation analyses pointed toward partner and actor physical activity as sequential mediators. These findings suggest that life satisfaction has not only intrapersonal but also interpersonal associations with longevity and contribute to the fields of epidemiology, positive psychology, and relationship research

Examining the trade‐off between confidence and optimism in future forecasts

Confident business forecasters are seen as more credible and competent (“confidence heuristic”). We explored a boundary condition of this effect by examining how individuals react to the trade‐off between confidence and optimism. Using hypothetical scenarios, we examined this trade‐off from the perspectives of judges (i.e., business owners who hired analysts to make sales predictions) and forecasters (i.e., the analysts hired to make predictions). Participants were assigned to the role of either judges or forecasters and were asked to rate 2 potential forecasts. In the “no trade‐off” condition, the 2 forecasts were aligned in optimism and confidence (the more confident forecast was also more optimistic); in the “trade‐off” condition, the more confident forecast was less optimistic. In Experiment 1, judges were more likely to positively evaluate confident forecasters when confident forecasters were the more (vs. less) optimistic ones. Experiment 2 demonstrated that forecasters were aware of judges' preferences for optimism and strategically relied on methods that resulted in more optimistic (but less reliable) predictions. Experiment 3 directly compared the perspectives of judges and forecasters, revealing that forecasters overestimated judges' preferences for optimism over confidence. The present studies show that forecasters and judges have different views of the trade‐off between confidence and optimism and that forecasters may unnecessarily sacrifice accuracy for optimism. KEYWORDS: advice giving, confidence heuristic, forecasts, optimism, warmth, morality, and competenc

Is more always better?:Examining the nonlinear association of social contact frequency with physical health and longevity

Frequent social contact has been associated with better health and longer life. It remains unclear though whether there is an optimal contact frequency, beyond which contact is no longer positively associated with health and longevity. The present research explored this question by examining nonlinear associations of social contact frequency with health and longevity. Study 1 (N ∼ 350,000) demonstrated that once the frequency of social contact reached a moderate level (monthly or weekly), its positive association with health flattened out. Study 2 (N ∼ 50,000) extended these findings to longitudinal and mortality data: Although low contact frequency was associated with poor health and low survival rates, increasing the frequency of social interactions beyond a moderate level (monthly or weekly) was no longer associated with better health and longevity and, in some cases, was even related to worse health and increased mortality risks. Keywords: health, mortality, social contact frequency, nonlinear effect

Challenging assumptions of the enlargement literature : the impact of the EU on human and minority rights in Macedonia

This article argues that from the very start of the transition process in Macedonia, a fusion of concerns about security and democratisation locked local nationalist elites and international organisations intoa political dynamic that prioritised security over democratisation. This dynamic resulted in little progress in the implementation of human and minority rights until 2009, despite heavy EU involvement in Macedonia after the internal warfare of 2001. The effects of this informally institutionalised relationship have been overlooked by scholarship on EU enlargement towards Eastern Europe, which has made generalisations based on assumptions relevant to the democratisation of countries in Eastern Europe, but not the Western Balkans

Social perception of forecasters: People see forecasts of future outcomes as cues to forecasters’ desires, attitudes, and identity

While people’s forecasts of future outcomes are often guided by their preferences (“desirability bias”), it has not been explored yet whether people infer others’ preferences from their forecasts. Across three experiments and overall thirty judgments, forecasters who thought that a particular future outcome was likely (vs. unlikely) were perceived as having a stronger preference for this outcome. Individuals were more likely to infer preferences from forecasts in the presence of cues facilitating internal attributions and in case of outcomes characterized by an actual positive empirical association between desirability and likelihood judgments. Finally, making future forecasts inconsistent (vs. consistent) with one’s stated preferences made observers doubt forecasters’ expressed preferences and identity. Overall, these findings suggest that social observers tend to interpret future forecasts as cues to others’ identity, values and attitudes. Keywords: forecasts; desirability bias; person perception; social inferences; lay dispositionis

Struggling to be liked:The prospective effect of trait self-control on social desirability and the moderating role of agreeableness

Drawing from the literature on the interpersonal functions of self-control, we examined longitudinal associations between trait self-control and social desirability, using a survey of the general population in the Netherlands. Trait self-control at baseline was positively associated with social desirability at a follow-up, even when controlling for prior levels of social desirability. That is, high self-control contributed to individuals' tendency to give socially desirable responses in self-reports. This effect was moderated by individual differences in agreeableness. Highly agreeable individuals were more likely to “use” their self-regulatory resources to respond in a socially desirable manner, compared to less agreeable individuals, suggesting that individuals might use self-regulatory resources in a way consistent with the motivational bases of their personality