On the Role of Pre-Determined Rules for HRM Policies

Using simple game-theoretical models, this paper studies the role of pre-determined rules for HRM policies. We consider a model in which HRM decisions affect employees' self-images and thereby their motivation. We show that in the absence of written rules, managers are too reluctant (1) to differentiate between employees on the basis of their abilities, and (2) to terminate employment of employees on probation. Generally, organizations benefit from committing to strict rules for various HRM practices

Presidential Popularity and Reputation

This paper reports on the results of an empirical study of relationships between the popularity of US presidents and economic variables. Traditionally, these relationships are based on the hypothesis that voters hold the incumbent President responsible for the economic situation. We derive an alternative specification of popularity, based on the hypothesis that political parties perform better on different issues. Empirical evidence turns out to be strongly in favour of our hypothesis. Our findings have important implications for studies on government behaviour in which it is assumed that one of the objectives of administrations is to maximise votes

Discovery of a Second Transient Low-Mass X-ray Binary in the Globular Cluster NGC 6440

We have identified a new transient luminous low-mass X-ray binary, NGC 6440 X-2, with Chandra/ACIS, RXTE/PCA, and Swift/XRT observations of the globular cluster NGC 6440. The discovery outburst (July 28-31, 2009) peaked at L_X~1.5*10^36 ergs/s, and lasted for <4 days above L_X=10^35 ergs/s. Four other outbursts (May 29-June 4, Aug. 29-Sept. 1, Oct. 1-3, and Oct. 28-31 2009) have been observed with RXTE/PCA (identifying millisecond pulsations, Altamirano et al. 2009a) and Swift/XRT (confirming a positional association with NGC 6440 X-2), with similar peak luminosities and decay times. Optical and infrared imaging did not detect a clear counterpart, with best limits of V>21, B>22 in quiescence from archival HST imaging, g'>22 during the August outburst from Gemini-South GMOS imaging, and J>~18.5$ and K>~17 during the July outburst from CTIO 4-m ISPI imaging. Archival Chandra X-ray images of the core do not detect the quiescent counterpart, and place a bolometric luminosity limit of L_{NS}< 6*10^31 ergs/s (one of the lowest measured) for a hydrogen atmosphere neutron star. A short Chandra observation 10 days into quiescence found two photons at NGC 6440 X-2's position, suggesting enhanced quiescent emission at L_X~6*10^31 ergs/s . NGC 6440 X-2 currently shows the shortest recurrence time (~31 days) of any known X-ray transient, although regular outbursts were not visible in the bulge scans before early 2009. Fast, low-luminosity transients like NGC 6440 X-2 may be easily missed by current X-ray monitoring.Comment: 13 pages (emulateapj), 8 (color) figures, ApJ in press. Revised version adds 5th outburst (Oct./Nov. 2009), additional discussion of possible causes of short outburst recurrence time

Popularity functions, partisan effects, and support in parliament

This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. Estimation results of popularity functions validate the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity levels. There is also evidence of personality effects, of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects. Finally, we found that voters' evaluations of incumbents' performance regarding unemployment is affected by their support in Parliament when an incumbent faces more opposition in Parliament, voters are less likely to hold him responsible for unemployment increases.(undefined

Rationality of Direct Tax Revenue Forecasts under Asymmetric Losses: Evidence from Swiss Cantons

The current debt crisis has shed light on the importance of accurate fiscal forecasts. In particular, the accuracy of revenue forecasts is central since they set the limit within which expenditure should remain in order to reach fiscal balance. Therefore, forecasting tax revenue accurately is a key step in the implementation of sound fiscal policies. The current paper contributes to the empirical literature on budget predictions by providing new evidence about Swiss cantons. Using data from 26 Swiss cantons over 1944-2010, we apply the method developed by Elliott et al. (2005) to test the rationality of direct tax revenue forecasts. We mainly find that 1) when considering the percent forecast error, loss functions are asymmetric in a majority of cantons, 2) allowing for asymmetric losses, results of rationality tests are substantially altered in the sense that more cantons turn out to produce rational forecasts 3) when considering forecasts of growth rates, almost no evidence of asymmetric loss function is found and finally 4) forecasts of tax revenue growth rate turn out to be rational in a higher number of cantons than forecasts of levels of tax revenue

Decision Making with Asymmetric Information

Every day individuals make numerous choices. What is important for making the right choice is that individuals have good information about the consequences of the different alternatives. However, investigating the full consequences of the different alternatives is complicated and costly. Consequently, individuals sometimes do not possess all relevant information to take a decision. This thesis discusses models in which an agent decides whether or not to perform a task on behalf of the principal. A key element in the models we consider is incomplete and asymmetric information. Broadly, the thesis can be split up into two parts. The first part of the thesis deals with models in which the principal is better informed than the agent. The agent has to decide whether or not to perform a task, but lacks information about his ability. We analyze how the agent makes a self-assessment of his ability, based on appraisals of others (the principal) and experience. Based on this self-assessment the agent takes a decision. The second part of the thesis deals with models in which the agent is better informed than the principal. On behalf of the principal the agent takes a decision about a project. Sometimes agents do not act in the interest of the principal. We analyze how the principal can use retention contracts to discipline the agent. In the remainder of the Introduction we discuss the two parts of the thesis and we provide an overview of the chapters of this thesis