Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Estimation of Hamilton’s Random Field Regression Model

This is a revised and extended version of the authors’ 2003 Trinity Economic Paper. It describes Hamilton’s (2001) approach to nonlinear econometric modelling and some of the methods of nonlinear optimization, as before, but adds significantly to the investigation of Hamilton’s Gauss program for the implementation of his methodology. Specifically, it reports on the performance of this program using data relating to Hamilton’s US Phillips curve example, the use of two versions of the Gauss software and a range of numerical optimization options. It also examines the impact of changes in initial parameter estimates, the use of algorithm switching strategies, and the e?ects of changes in the sample data on the results produced by Hamilton’s procedure. The new results presented suggest some further clear conclusions that will be of value to those using Hamilton’s method.

Discussion of nuclear explosive operation process changes generated by a preliminary hazard assessment

Hazard assessments (HAs) are being used to support the US Department of Energy (DOE) Integrated Safety Process (SS-21), Nuclear Explosive Safety Study Group (NESSG), and Environmental Safety and Health (ES and H) initiatives. The HAs are used to identify hazards associated with nuclear explosive operations involving tooling and procedural processes. In general, a HA is a formal, systematic, in-depth method for evaluating a set of possible accident scenarios associated with a process. Two assessments of a nuclear explosive surveillance process have been performed or are in progress: (1) a preliminary HA of current operations to focus efforts on maximizing safety improvements during subsequent process redesign and track overall improvement following process redesign (completed) and (2) a rolling assessment of hazards present in conceptual solutions and solutions to improve safety (in progress). The preliminary HA was used to focus the process design teams on problem areas. The rolling assessment is evaluating how well problem areas were eliminated or mitigated. This paper summarizes the preliminary HA, how it focused the design teams on problem areas found by the assessment, and the rolling assessment of solutions generated by the process design team

CV20016

This report provides the main results and findings of the nineteenth annual underwater television survey on the Aran, Galway Bay and Slyne head Nephrops grounds, ICES assessment area; Functional Unit 17. The survey was multi-disciplinary in nature collecting UWTV, CTD and other ecosystem data. In 2020 a total of 44 UWTV stations were successfully completed, 34 on the Aran Grounds, 5 on Galway Bay and 5 on Slyne Head patches. The mean burrow density observed in 2020, adjusted for edge effect, was medium at 0.29 burrows/m². The final krigged burrow abundance estimate for the Aran Grounds was 359 million burrows with a CV (Coefficient of Variance; relative standard error) of 4%. The final abundance estimate for Galway Bay was 27 million and for Slyne Head was 7 million, with CVs of 13% and 4% respectively. The total abundance estimates have fluctuated considerably over the time series. The 2020 combined abundance estimate (394 million burrows) is 20% lower than in 2019, and it is below the MSY Btrigger reference point (540 million burrows). Using the 2020 estimate of abundance and updated stock data implies catches between 443 and 508 tonnes in 2021 that correspond to the F ranges in the EU multi annual plan for Western Waters, assuming that discard rates and fishery selection patterns do not change from the average of 2017–2019. Virgularia mirabilis was the only sea-pen species observed on the UWTV footage. Trawl marks were present at 7% of the Aran stations surveyed

CV19017

This report provides the results of the seventh underwater television on the ‘Porcupine Bank Nephrops grounds’ ICES assessment area; Functional Unit 16. The survey was multi-disciplinary in nature collecting UWTV, CTD and other ecosystem data. In total 65 UWTV stations were successfully completed in a randomised 6 nautical mile isometric grid covering the full spatial extent of the stock. The mean burrow density observed in 2019, adjusted for edge effect, was 0.14 burrows/m². The final krigged abundance estimate was 1010 million burrows with a relative standard error of 5% and an estimated stock area of 7,130 km2. The 2019 abundance estimate was 9.5% lower than in 2018. Using the 2019 estimate of abundance and updated stock data implies catches between 2127 and 2637 tonnes in 2020 that correspond to the F ranges in the EU multi annual plan for Western Waters (assuming that all catch is landed). Four species of sea-pen; Virgularia mirabilis, Funiculina quadrangularis, Pennatula phosphorea and the deepwater sea-pen Kophobelemnon stelliferum were observed during the survey. Trawl marks were also observed on 31% of the stations surveyed

CV19022

This report provides the main results of the 2019 underwater television survey on the ‘Labadie, Jones and Cockburn Banks’ ICES assessment area; Functional Unit 20-21. The 2019 survey was multi-disciplinary in nature collecting UWTV, and other ecosystem data. A total of 95 UWTV stations were completed at 6 nm intervals over a randomised isometric grid design. The mean burrow density was 0.06 burrows/m2 compared with 0.27 burrows/m2 in 2018. The 2019 geostatistical abundance estimate was 617 million, a 77% decrease on the abundance for 2018, with a CV of 5% which is well below the upper limit of 20% recommended by SGNEPS 2012. Low densities were observed throughout the ground. Using the 2019 estimate of abundance and updated stock data implies catch in 2020 that correspond to the F ranges in the EU multi annual plan for Western Waters are between 1131 and 1150 tonnes (assuming that discard rates and fishery selection patterns do not change from the average of 2016–2018). One species of sea-pen (Virgularia mirabilis) were recorded as present at the stations surveyed. Trawl marks were observed at 32% of the stations surveyed

CE20006

The 2020 Irish Anglerfish and Megrim Survey (IAMS) took place from 23rd February to 18th March (area 7bcjk) and 12-21st April 2020 (area 6a) on RV Celtic Explorer. The main objective of the survey is to obtain biomass and abundance indices for anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and L. budegassa) and megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis and L. boscii) in areas 6a (south of 58°N) and 7 (west of 8°W). Secondary objectives are to collect data on the distribution, relative abundance and biology of other commercially exploited species. For the second year, additional sampling took place in deep water (up to 1,500m) in order to monitor the recovery of exploited deep-water species following the decline of the deep-water fisheries in Irish waters. The IAMS survey is coordinated with the Scottish Anglerfish and Megrim Survey (SIAMISS) and uses the same gear and fishing practices

Physical interpretation of gauge invariant perturbations of spherically symmetric space-times

By calculating the Newman-Penrose Weyl tensor components of a perturbed spherically symmetric space-time with respect to invariantly defined classes of null tetrads, we give a physical interpretation, in terms of gravitational radiation, of odd parity gauge invariant metric perturbations. We point out how these gauge invariants may be used in setting boundary and/or initial conditions in perturbation theory.Comment: 6 pages. To appear in PR

CV20019

This report provides the main results of the eleventh underwater television survey of the various Nephrops patches in Functional Unit 19. The survey was multi-disciplinary in nature collecting UWTV, multi-beam and other ecosystem data. In 2020 a total 42 UWTV stations were successfully completed. The mean density estimates varied considerably across the different patches. The 2020 raised abundance estimate was a 20% decrease from the 2019 estimate and at 320 million burrows is below the MSY Btrigger reference point (430 million). Using the 2020 estimate of abundance and updated stock data implies catch in 2021 that correspond to the F ranges in the EU multi annual plan for Western Waters are between 531 and 595 tonnes (assuming that discard rates and fishery selection patterns do not change from the average of 2017–2019). Two species of sea pen were observed; Virgularia mirabilis and Pennatula phosphorea which have been observed on previous surveys of FU19. Trawl marks were observed at 26% of the stations surveyed

Effect of omitting post-milking teat disinfection on the mastitis infection rate of dairy cows over a full lactation

Abstract Fifty-six autumn calving Holstein-Friesian dairy cows were milked as one herd over a complete lactation. Right-sided teats were disinfected post-milking by submersing teats in a chlorohexadine solution, while teat disinfectant was omitted on left-sided teats. Milk samples were taken from individual quarters to measure SCC on thirteen occasions during the lactation. Mean somatic cell count was lower (P<0.01) in milk from disinfected compared to non-disinfected quarters over the full lactation. The number of clinical infections was also significantly lower (P<0.001) in disinfected compared to nondisinfected quarters. Omitting teat disinfection also resulted in a higher (P<0.01) number of non-haemolytic staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus pathogens in those quarters compared to disinfected quarters