Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts

This paper reconciles contradictory findings obtained from forecast evaluations: the existence of systematic errors and the failure to reject rationality in the presence of such errors. Systematic errors in one economic state may offset the opposite types of errors in the other state such that the null of rationality is not rejected. A modified test applied to the Fed forecasts shows that the forecasts were ex post biased.Greenbook Forecasts, forecast evaluation, systematic errors

Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?

Recent research has documented that the Federal Reserve produces systematic errors in forecasting inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate, even though these forecasts are unbiased. We show that these systematic errors reveal that the Fed is “surprised” by real and inflationary cycles. Using a modified Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, we show that the Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one quarter ahead.Forecast Evaluation; Federal Reserve; Systematic Errors; Recessions

THE IMPACT OF INFANT-TODDLER SCREEN TIME ON SELF-REGULATION AND BEHAVIOR CHALLENGES: THE ROLE OF PARENTING STYLE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS

As young children are growing up in a digitally enmeshed world, there is growing concern about the developmental impacts of screen time. Given the importance of early rapid brain development, understanding the developmental outcomes of screen time in early childhood is critical. Current research suggests that excessive screen time may lead to delays in physical, cognitive, and language development. However, the impact of screen time on socio-emotional development among young children (0-5 years) is not well understood. Therefore, the present study examined the effects of screen time on social-emotional outcomes of 12-to-36-month-old children, specifically, the impact on self-regulation and behavior challenges per parent report. Additionally, the study examined the moderating effects of parenting style and socio-economic status on screen time and each of the outcome variables. Results demonstrated that screen time was significantly associated with self-regulation and behavior challenges. Also, screen time was related to socio-economic status. However, no moderating effects of parenting style and socio-economic status were found. The findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of screen time by specifically examining social-emotional development and by focusing on an age group that has generally not been considered. Future research is necessary to better understand developmentally appropriate screen time practices for young children to ensure optimal development of future generations

Implementing Risk Tools to Prevent Hospital Readmission

Implementing Risk Tools to Prevent Hospital Readmission Tara O’Connor Abstract Background: Readmission reduction is one of the most important opportunities for reducing cost in today’s health care system. Global Aim: To operationalize risk tools to reduce hospital readmissions by 5 percent by the end of 2017. Project Aim: To develop new transitions program (TP) processes that operationalizes the risk tools and ensures 70 percent of all readmission risk score patients referred receive a post discharge phone call within 48 hours, and are assessed for their risk of medication management issues as part of their initial assessment, by August 1st, 2017. Setting: The TP provides short term case management for patients transitioning home from hospital and other level of care. Quality Gap: An evidence-based means of identifying patients at risk for readmission and a standardized process for assessing medication management issues was previously lacking. Evidence: Intervention demonstrated in clinical trial to reduce readmissions requires timely post discharge follow-up, assessment of and interventions for medication management issues, education on the plan of care, and interventions that address the social barriers of health maintenance and promote patients’ and their caregivers’ capacity for self-management. Results: Through clinical leadership, utilization of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement’s (IHIs) model for improvement, and interdisciplinary collaboration, the TP team has developed new processes that preliminary data suggests are accomplishing the project aim

Subsidized Housing, Private Developers and Place: A Spatial Analysis of the Clustering of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Properties in the 25 Largest U.S. Cities

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program is the primary federal program for producing new units of affordable housing. The program provides financial incentives to private developers to develop and operate affordable rental housing. In recent years, evidence has emerged that the program has led to clusters of subsidized housing in some cities. It is hardly surprising that some clustering would exist in a program in which the housing is constructed and owned by private developers. Despite the significant number of units produced by the program and despite the potential tendency for clustering of units built under this program, the locational patterns within the LIHTC program remain largely unexamined. Instead, most studies of the LIHTC program have focused on the national level rather than on individual cities. In contrast to previous studies, this study seeks to improve our understanding of variations in the LIHTC program across cities. The hypothesis of this study is that, because private developers produce housing in the LIHTC program and because the factors that influence private developers vary across cities, there is likely to be significant variation in the locational patterns of LIHTC developments across cities. The results of this study show, among other things, that clustering of LIHTC properties exists in the study cities, this clustering is extreme in some cases, and the clusters are associated with high poverty tracts in some cities. Given the LIHTC program\u27s emphasis on market-driven policies and a similar emphasis in some other federal housing programs, such findings will likely be applicable to other affordable housing programs

Dr. Cortez F. Enloe, Jr. Collection

This collection is comprised of newspaper volumes, illustrated magazines, lantern slides, and 2 pamphlets donated by Dr. Cynthia H. Enloe. The materials were collected by the donor’s father Dr. Cortez F. Enloe, Jr. in 1930s Germany. The 4 newspaper volumes (February 1936- June 1936) belong to 4 publishers in Frankfurt, Munich, and Heidelberg: Volksgemeinschaft Heidelberger Beobachter, General Anzeiger der Stadt Frankfurt, Das Illustrierte Blatt, and Munchner Illustrierte Presse. The 10 magazine volumes (June 1936-May 1937) belong to 3 publishers in Munich and Berlin: Munchner Illustrierte Presse, Das Illustrierte Blatt, and Illustrierter Beobachter. These periodicals reveal the increasing influence of Nazi leadership on German media, as seen through the propagandizing of the Berlin Olympics and the 550th anniversary of Heidelberg University. The 9 lantern slides document the US Trial of Nazi Physicians in 1945; the images range from prisoner experimentation, the trial itself, and executions of the condemned. The collection also contains 3 booklets on the National Socialist Party, the anniversary of Heidelberg University, Communism in Germany, and Dr. Enloe’s corresponding notes

Preserving a Legacy of Literary Lives: Re-connecting Patrons to one of our most Dynamic Digital Collections

This poster describes a project at West Chester University to re-digitize the Philips Autograph Library Collection. Combining the efforts of the Special Collections, Cataloging, and Interlibrary Loan Departments, the goal is to improve and enhance access to this unique and valuable WCU treasure