After Columbus: Explaining the Global Trade Boom 1500-1800

This paper documents the size and timing of the world inter-continental trade boom following the great voyages in the 1490s of Columbus, da Gama and their followers. Indeed, a trade boom followed over the subsequent three centuries. But what was its cause? The conventional wisdom in the world history literature offers globalization as the answer: it alleges that declining trade barriers, falling transport costs and overseas "discovery" explains the boom. In contrast, this paper reports the evidence that confirms unambiguously that there was no commodity price convergence between continents, something that would have emerged had globalization been a force that mattered. Thus, the trade boom must have been caused by some combination of European import demand and foreign export supply from Asia and the Americas. Furthermore, the behavior of the relative price of foreign importables in European cities should tell us which mattered most and when. We offer detailed evidence on the relative prices of such importables in European markets over the five centuries 1350-1850. We then offer a model which is used to decompose the sources of the trade boom 1500-1800.

After Columbus: Explaining the Global Trade Boom 1500-1800

This paper documents the size and timing of the world inter-continental trade boom following the greate voyages in the 1490s of Columbus, da Gama and their followers. Indeed, a trade boom followed over the subsequent three centuries. But what was its cause? The conventionnal wisdom in the world history literature offers globalization as the answer: it alleges that declining trade barriers falling transport costs and overseas "discovery" explains the boom. In contrast, this paper reports the evidence that confirms unambiguously that there was no commodity price convergence between continents, something that would have emerged had globalization been a force that mattered. Thus, the trade boom must have been caused by some combination of European import demand and foreign export supply from Asia and the Americas. Furthermore, the behavior of the relative price of foreign importables in European cities should tell us which mattered most and when. We offer detailed evidence on the relative prices of such importables in European markets over the five centuries 1350-1850. We then offer a model which is used to decompose the sources of the trade boom 1500-1800.

An attempt to observe economy globalization: the cross correlation distance evolution of the top 19 GDP's

Economy correlations between the 19 richest countries are investigated through their Gross Domestic Product increments. A distance is defined between increment correlation matrix elements and their evolution studied as a function of time and time window size. Unidirectional and Bidirectional Minimal Length Paths are generated and analyzed for different time windows. A sort of critical correlation time window is found indicating a transition for best observations. The mean length path decreases with time, indicating stronger correlations. A new method for estimating a realistic minimal time window to observe correlations and deduce macroeconomy conclusions from such features is thus suggested.Comment: to be published in the Dyses05 proceedings, in Int. J. Mod Phys C 15 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl