Improving Orbit Estimates for Incomplete Orbits with a New Approach to Priors -- with Applications from Black Holes to Planets

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prior probability distributions (priors) that can improve orbital solutions for low-phase-coverage orbits, where data cover less than approximately 40% of an orbit. In instances of low phase coverage such as with stellar orbits in the Galactic center or with directly-imaged exoplanets, data have low constraining power and thus priors can bias parameter estimates and produce under-estimated confidence intervals. Uniform priors, which are commonly assumed in orbit fitting, are notorious for this. We propose a new observable-based prior paradigm that is based on uniformity in observables. We compare performance of this observable-based prior and of commonly assumed uniform priors using Galactic center and directly-imaged exoplanet (HR 8799) data. The observable-based prior can reduce biases in model parameters by a factor of two and helps avoid under-estimation of confidence intervals for simulations with less than about 40% phase coverage. Above this threshold, orbital solutions for objects with sufficient phase coverage such as S0-2, a short-period star at the Galactic center with full phase coverage, are consistent with previously published results. Below this threshold, the observable-based prior limits prior influence in regions of prior dominance and increases data influence. Using the observable-based prior, HR 8799 orbital analyses favor lower eccentricity orbits and provide stronger evidence that the four planets have a consistent inclination around 30 degrees to within 1-sigma. This analysis also allows for the possibility of coplanarity. We present metrics to quantify improvements in orbital estimates with different priors so that observable-based prior frameworks can be tested and implemented for other low-phase-coverage orbits.Comment: Published in AJ. 23 pages, 14 figures. Monte Carlo chains are available in the published article, or are available upon reques

Spatially varying density dependence drives a shifting mosaic of survival in a recovering apex predator (Canis lupus)

Understanding landscape patterns in mortality risk is crucial for promoting recovery of threatened and endangered species. Humans affect mortality risk in large carnivores such as wolves (Canis lupus), but spatiotemporally varying density dependence can significantly influence the landscape of survival. This potentially occurs when density varies spatially and risk is unevenly distributed. We quantified spatiotemporal sources of variation in survival rates of gray wolves (C. lupus) during a 21-year period of population recovery in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We focused on mapping risk across time using Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) models with time-dependent covariates, thus exploring a shifting mosaic of survival. Extended CPH models and time-dependent covariates revealed influences of seasonality, density dependence and experience, as well as individual-level factors and landscape predictors of risk. We used results to predict the shifting landscape of risk at the beginning, middle, and end of the wolf recovery time series. Survival rates varied spatially and declined over time. Long-term change was density-dependent, with landscape predictors such as agricultural land cover and edge densities contributing negatively to survival. Survival also varied seasonally and depended on individual experience, sex, and resident versus transient status. The shifting landscape of survival suggested that increasing density contributed to greater potential for human conflict and wolf mortality risk. Long-term spatial variation in key population vital rates is largely unquantified in many threatened, endangered, and recovering species. Variation in risk may indicate potential for source-sink population dynamics, especially where individuals preemptively occupy suitable territories, which forces new individuals into riskier habitat types as density increases. We encourage managers to explore relationships between adult survival and localized changes in population density. Density-dependent risk maps can identify increasing conflict areas or potential habitat sinks which may persist due to high recruitment in adjacent habitats

Nonlinear saturation of electrostatic waves: mobile ions modify trapping scaling

The amplitude equation for an unstable electrostatic wave in a multi-species Vlasov plasma has been derived. The dynamics of the mode amplitude $\rho(t)$ is studied using an expansion in $\rho$; in particular, in the limit $\gamma\rightarrow0^+$, the singularities in the expansion coefficients are analyzed to predict the asymptotic dependence of the electric field on the linear growth rate $\gamma$. Generically $|E_k|\sim \gamma^{5/2}$, as $\gamma\rightarrow0^+$, but in the limit of infinite ion mass or for instabilities in reflection-symmetric systems due to real eigenvalues the more familiar trapping scaling $|E_k|\sim \gamma^{2}$ is predicted.Comment: 13 pages (Latex/RevTex), 4 postscript encapsulated figures which are included using the utility "uufiles". They should be automatically included with the text when it is downloaded. Figures also available in hard copy from the authors ([email protected]

Undamped electrostatic plasma waves

Electrostatic waves in a collision-free unmagnetized plasma of electrons with fixed ions are investigated for electron equilibrium velocity distribution functions that deviate slightly from Maxwellian. Of interest are undamped waves that are the small amplitude limit of nonlinear excitations, such as electron acoustic waves (EAWs). A deviation consisting of a small plateau, a region with zero velocity derivative over a width that is a very small fraction of the electron thermal speed, is shown to give rise to new undamped modes, which here are named {\it corner modes}. The presence of the plateau turns off Landau damping and allows oscillations with phase speeds within the plateau. These undamped waves are obtained in a wide region of the $(k,\omega_{_R})$ plane ($\omega_{_R}$ being the real part of the wave frequency and $k$ the wavenumber), away from the well-known `thumb curve' for Langmuir waves and EAWs based on the Maxwellian. Results of nonlinear Vlasov-Poisson simulations that corroborate the existence of these modes are described. It is also shown that deviations caused by fattening the tail of the distribution shift roots off of the thumb curve toward lower $k$-values and chopping the tail shifts them toward higher $k$-values. In addition, a rule of thumb is obtained for assessing how the existence of a plateau shifts roots off of the thumb curve. Suggestions are made for interpreting experimental observations of electrostatic waves, such as recent ones in nonneutral plasmas.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figure

Searching in HI for Massive Low Surface Brightness Galaxies: Samples from HyperLeda and the UGC

A search has been made for 21 cm HI line emission in a total of 350 unique galaxies from two samples whose optical properties indicate they may be massive The first consists of 241 low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies of morphological type Sb and later selected from the HyperLeda database and the the second consists of 119 LSB galaxies from the UGC with morphological types Sd-m and later. Of the 350 unique galaxies, 239 were observed at the Nancay Radio Telescope, 161 at the Green Bank Telescope, and 66 at the Arecibo telescope. A total of 295 (84.3%) were detected, of which 253 (72.3%) appear to be uncontaminated by any other galaxies within the telescope beam. Finally, of the total detected, uncontaminated galaxies, at least 31 appear to be massive LSB galaxies, with a total HI mass $\ge$ 10$^{10}$ M$_{sol}$, for H$_0$ = 70 km/s/Mpc. If we expand the definition to also include galaxies with significant total (rather than just gas) mass, i.e., those with inclination-corrected HI line width W$_{50}$,cor > 500 km/s, this bring the total number of massive LSB galaxies to 41. There are no obvious trends between the various measured global galaxy properties, particularly between mean surface brightness and galaxy mass.Comment: 71 pages, including all tables and figures; Accepted by A

Phase transition in the collisionless regime for wave-particle interaction

Gibbs statistical mechanics is derived for the Hamiltonian system coupling self-consistently a wave to N particles. This identifies Landau damping with a regime where a second order phase transition occurs. For nonequilibrium initial data with warm particles, a critical initial wave intensity is found: above it, thermodynamics predicts a finite wave amplitude in the limit of infinite N; below it, the equilibrium amplitude vanishes. Simulations support these predictions providing new insight on the long-time nonlinear fate of the wave due to Landau damping in plasmas.Comment: 12 pages (RevTeX), 2 figures (PostScript

Absolute Energy Calibration of X-ray TESs with 0.04 eV Uncertainty at 6.4 keV in a Hadron-Beam Environment

A performance evaluation of superconducting transition-edge sensors (TESs) in the environment of a pion beam line at a particle accelerator is presented. Averaged across the 209 functioning sensors in the array, the achieved energy resolution is 5.2 eV FWHM at Co $K_{\alpha}$ (6.9 keV) when the pion beam is off and 7.3 eV at a beam rate of 1.45 MHz. Absolute energy uncertainty of $\pm$0.04 eV is demonstrated for Fe $K_{\alpha}$ (6.4 keV) with in-situ energy calibration obtained from other nearby known x-ray lines. To achieve this small uncertainty, it is essential to consider the non-Gaussian energy response of the TESs and thermal cross-talk pile-up effects due to charged-particle hits in the silicon substrate of the TES array.Comment: Accepted for publication in J. Low Temperature Physics, special issue for the proceedings of the Low Temperature Detectors 16 conferenc

Epigenetic status of argininosuccinate synthetase and argininosuccinate lyase modulates autophagy and cell death in glioblastoma.

Arginine deprivation, either by nutritional starvation or exposure to ADI-PEG20, induces adaptive transcriptional upregulation of ASS1 and ASL in glioblastoma multiforme ex vivo cultures and cell lines. This adaptive transcriptional upregulation is blocked by neoplasia-specific CpG island methylation in either gene, causing arginine auxotrophy and cell death. In cells with methylated ASS1 or ASL CpG islands, ADI-PEG20 initially induces a protective autophagic response, but abrogation of this by chloroquine accelerates and potentiates cytotoxicity. Concomitant methylation in the CpG islands of both ASS1 and ASL, observed in a subset of cases, confers hypersensitivity to ADI-PEG20. Cancer stem cells positive for CD133 and methylation in the ASL CpG island retain sensitivity to ADI-PEG20. Our results show for the first time that epigenetic changes occur in both of the two key genes of arginine biosynthesis in human cancer and confer sensitivity to therapeutic arginine deprivation. We demonstrate that methylation status of the CpG islands, rather than expression levels per se of the genes, predicts sensitivity to arginine deprivation. Our results suggest a novel therapeutic strategy for this invariably fatal central nervous system neoplasm for which we have identified robust biomarkers and which overcomes the limitations to conventional chemotherapy imposed by the blood/brain barrier