Equipment and Supply Readiness

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThis goal of this research is to produce resource allocation decision support for the Marine Corps. Decision support is expected to be in the form of a readiness model, referred to as the Resource and Equipment Readiness model (RER model), which will inform resource allocations towards improving unit-level DRRS "R" ratings. The RER model itself is necessary due to the large amount of information that will be included; however, the RER model is only a vehicle for investigating resource allocation questions. Thus, the model will help to investigate the utility of resources allocation decisions on readiness. The anticipated results of the research project will be decision support to increase the effectiveness of resource allocation.HQMC Programs & Resources (P&R)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Warfighting Readiness PESTONI Study

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThe acquisition process for United States (U.S.) military systems has been developed and extended over its history to procure military capable systems. Adversary militaries from around the world are also acquiring systems with the intent to create opposition to those procured by the U.S. military. This ongoing process results in a canvas of capabilities and specifically the capability gaps between the U.S. military and its adversaries. As such, the identified capability gaps are a focus area for acquiring military systems. Programs of record (PoRs) are organizational avenue for addressing known capability gaps. However, underperforming PoRs are a known challenge in this process; underperforming PoRs are unable to deliver the expected capabilities. The result increases the risk of an underperforming U.S. military that lacks the necessary capabilities to compete with its adversaries. The project proposed within this document is intended to investigate this challenge and offer an initial solution.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Warfighting Readiness PESTONI Study

NPS NRP Project PosterThe acquisition process for United States (U.S.) military systems has been developed and extended over its history to procure military capable systems. Adversary militaries from around the world are also acquiring systems with the intent to create opposition to those procured by the U.S. military. This ongoing process results in a canvas of capabilities and specifically the capability gaps between the U.S. military and its adversaries. As such, the identified capability gaps are a focus area for acquiring military systems. Programs of record (PoRs) are organizational avenue for addressing known capability gaps. However, underperforming PoRs are a known challenge in this process; underperforming PoRs are unable to deliver the expected capabilities. The result increases the risk of an underperforming U.S. military that lacks the necessary capabilities to compete with its adversaries. The project proposed within this document is intended to investigate this challenge and offer an initial solution.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Warfighting Readiness PESTONI Study

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe acquisition process for United States (U.S.) military systems has been developed and extended over its history to procure military capable systems. Adversary militaries from around the world are also acquiring systems with the intent to create opposition to those procured by the U.S. military. This ongoing process results in a canvas of capabilities and specifically the capability gaps between the U.S. military and its adversaries. As such, the identified capability gaps are a focus area for acquiring military systems. Programs of record (PoRs) are organizational avenue for addressing known capability gaps. However, underperforming PoRs are a known challenge in this process; underperforming PoRs are unable to deliver the expected capabilities. The result increases the risk of an underperforming U.S. military that lacks the necessary capabilities to compete with its adversaries. The project proposed within this document is intended to investigate this challenge and offer an initial solution.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Modeling and Simulation for Lifetime Predictions

NPS NRP Project PosterModeling and Simulation for Lifetime PredictionsNaval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Modeling and Simulation for Lifetime Predictions

NPS NRP Executive SummaryModeling and Simulation for Lifetime PredictionsNaval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Integration of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) into Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE)

NPS NRP Project PosterIn recent years, the expansion of new technology has resulted in a more challenging design process. This has inflated in complexity of the system as well as its operational sustainment including managing documentation, root causing failures, tracking changes, etc. With the increased challenge seen in designing modern system, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has emerged as a paradigm shift to transition the system's design into the digital space. With this transition comes clear and authoritative advantages such as a single source of design truth, a more complete analysis of the system, an improved communication among members of the program, the reuse of models, and many more [Carol, 2016]. While these advantages have been observed in specific uses of MBSE, the ability to employ MBSE is currently limited by the availability of both the knowledge of its employment and the availability of models. Among other topic areas, this limitation includes reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM). To expand the capability of MBSE, this research investigates the various elements of modeling RAM (i.e., the development of a RAM domain model). (Carol, 2016) E. Carroll and R. Malins, "Systematic literature review: How is model-based systems engineering justified," Sandia National Laboratories, 2016.Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC), Division CraneASN(RDA) - Research, Development, and AcquisitionThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Integration of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) into Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE)

NPS NRP Executive SummaryIn recent years, the expansion of new technology has resulted in a more challenging design process. This has inflated in complexity of the system as well as its operational sustainment including managing documentation, root causing failures, tracking changes, etc. With the increased challenge seen in designing modern system, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has emerged as a paradigm shift to transition the system's design into the digital space. With this transition comes clear and authoritative advantages such as a single source of design truth, a more complete analysis of the system, an improved communication among members of the program, the reuse of models, and many more [Carol, 2016]. While these advantages have been observed in specific uses of MBSE, the ability to employ MBSE is currently limited by the availability of both the knowledge of its employment and the availability of models. Among other topic areas, this limitation includes reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM). To expand the capability of MBSE, this research investigates the various elements of modeling RAM (i.e., the development of a RAM domain model). (Carol, 2016) E. Carroll and R. Malins, "Systematic literature review: How is model-based systems engineering justified," Sandia National Laboratories, 2016.Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC), Division CraneASN(RDA) - Research, Development, and AcquisitionThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

A framework to model reliability and failures in complex systems during the early engineering design process

An open area of research in complex systems is to move reliability and failure assessments earlier in the engineering design process. When compared to later design, early decisions are cost effective and have a large impact on the system. Standard methods are limited by the availability of data and often rely on detailed representations of the system. This dissertation will focus on this need by developing an Early Design Reliability and Failure Modeling framework. This framework presents a suite of engineering design methods used to assess reliability and failure modes during the early design process. Several instances are provided to show how specialized data sets can be developed that are specific to early design applications. Specific importance in this dissertation will be placed on design theory and methodology to support decision making. Overall these methods address important early design considerations including the automated identification and mitigation of high-occurrence failure modes, the abstraction level of failure modes and mechanisms, quantifying uncertainty and functional reliability, a customer's risk of losing functionality, a system's risk to a set of failure modes, and the behavior modeling of important failure modes

A method of identifying and analyzing irrational system behavior in a system of systems

The article of record as published may be found at https://10.1002/sys.21520System of interest (SoI) failures can sometimes be traced to an unexpected behavior occurring within another system that is a member of the system of systems (SoS) with the SoI. This article presents a method for use when designing an SoI that helps to analyze an SoS for unexpected behaviors from existing SoS members during the SoI’s conceptual functional modeling phase of system architecture. The concept of irrationality initiators—unanticipated or unexpected failure flows emitted from one system that adversely impact an SoI, which appear to be impossible or irra- tional to engineers developing the new system—is introduced and implemented in a quantitative risk analysis method. The method is implemented in the failure flow identification and propagation framework to yield a probability distribution of failure paths through an SoI in the SoS. An example of a network of autonomous vehicles operating in a partially denied environment is presented to demonstrate the method. The method presented in this paper allows practitioners to more easily identify potential failure paths and prioritize fixing vulnerabilities in an SoI during functional modeling when significant changes can still be made with minimal impact to cost and schedule.This research is partially supported by the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD),∗ and Danmarks Tekniske Universitet