First Measurements with NeXtRAD, a Polarimetric X/L Band Radar Network

NeXtRAD is a fully polarimetric, X/L Band radar network. It is a development of the older NetRAD system and builds on the experience gained with extensive deployments of NetRAD for sea clutter and target measurements. In this paper we will report on the first measurements with NeXtRAD, looking primarily at sea clutter and some targets, as well as early attempts at calibration using corner reflectors, and an assessment of the polarimetric response of the system. We also highlight innovations allowing for efficient data manipulation post measurement campaigns, as well as the plans for the coming years with this system

Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

Supporting User-Defined Functions on Uncertain Data

Uncertain data management has become crucial in many sensing and scientific applications. As user-defined functions (UDFs) become widely used in these applications, an important task is to capture result uncertainty for queries that evaluate UDFs on uncertain data. In this work, we provide a general framework for supporting UDFs on uncertain data. Specifically, we propose a learning approach based on Gaussian processes (GPs) to compute approximate output distributions of a UDF when evaluated on uncertain input, with guaranteed error bounds. We also devise an online algorithm to compute such output distributions, which employs a suite of optimizations to improve accuracy and performance. Our evaluation using both real-world and synthetic functions shows that our proposed GP approach can outperform the state-of-the-art sampling approach with up to two orders of magnitude improvement for a variety of UDFs. 1

Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations can quantify the value of learning about particular subsets of uncertain parameters in decision models. Published case studies have used different computational approaches. This article examines the computation of partial EVPI estimates via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. The mathematical definition shows 2 nested expectations, which must be evaluated separately because of the need to compute a maximum between them. A generalized Monte Carlo sampling algorithm uses nested simulation with an outer loop to sample parameters of interest and, conditional upon these, an inner loop to sample remaining uncertain parameters. Alternative computation methods and shortcut algorithms are discussed and mathematical conditions for their use considered. Maxima of Monte Carlo estimates of expectations are biased upward, and the authors show that the use of small samples results in biased EVPI estimates. Three case studies illustrate 1) the bias due to maximization and also the inaccuracy of shortcut algorithms 2) when correlated variables are present and 3) when there is nonlinearity in net benefit functions. If relatively small correlation or nonlinearity is present, then the shortcut algorithm can be substantially inaccurate. Empirical investigation of the numbers of Monte Carlo samples suggests that fewer samples on the outer level and more on the inner level could be efficient and that relatively small numbers of samples can sometimes be used. Several remaining areas for methodological development are set out. A wider application of partial EVPI is recommended both for greater understanding of decision uncertainty and for analyzing research priorities

Present and Future CP Measurements

We review theoretical and experimental results on CP violation summarizing the discussions in the working group on CP violation at the UK phenomenology workshop 2000 in Durham.Comment: 104 pages, Latex, to appear in Journal of Physics

Genome-wide profiling of methylation identifies novel targets with aberrant hyper-methylation and reduced expression in low-risk myelodysplastic syndromes

Gene expression profiling signatures may be used to classify the subtypes of Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients. However, there are few reports on the global methylation status in MDS. The integration of genome-wide epigenetic regulatory marks with gene expression levels would provide additional information regarding the biological differences between MDS and healthy controls. Gene expression and methylation status were measured using high-density microarrays. A total of 552 differentially methylated CpG loci were identified as being present in low-risk MDS; hypermethylated genes were more frequent than hypomethylated genes. In addition, mRNA expression profiling identified 1005 genes that significantly differed between low-risk MDS and the control group. Integrative analysis of the epigenetic and expression profiles revealed that 66.7% of the hypermethylated genes were underexpressed in low-risk MDS cases. Gene network analysis revealed molecular mechanisms associated with the low-risk MDS group, including altered apoptosis pathways. The two key apoptotic genes BCL2 and ETS1 were identified as silenced genes. In addition, the immune response and micro RNA biogenesis were affected by the hypermethylation and underexpression of IL27RA and DICER1. Our integrative analysis revealed that aberrant epigenetic regulation is a hallmark of low-risk MDS patients and could have a central role in these diseases. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved