Precipitation extremes under climate change

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.Comment: Accepted in Current Climate Change Report

Drug problems and social exclusion: the development of heroin careers in risk environments.

The location-specificd rug scenesi dentified in Ireland and the UK in the 1980s indicated that problem drug use had a particular social and spatial focus in urban working-class communities, particularly those affected by unemployment and deprivation. This thesis explores localised drug problems in a number of disadvantaged neighbourhoods of Dublin by locating the perspective and experience of heroin users within the context of the social and economic contexts in which they live and operate. Taking a critical interpretivist methodological approach, the concepts of social exclusion and risk environments are used as heuristic devices for understanding the context in which problematic drug careers develop in marginalised areas. Using a multi-method research design, the study draws on secondary demographic, socioeconomic and policy data to provide a contextual framework of risk environments. The study then explores the development of heroin careers and the lived experience of social exclusion through in-depth qualitative interviews with sixty-one heroin users and an ethnographic study of the five socially excluded Dublin neighbourhoods in which they lived. An inductive analysis of the themes arising from the data describes the interactive dynamics at play in which social and structural processes are seen to both facilitate, and be facilitated by, local drug problems. The multiple and interconnected risks that drug users are seen to encounter at both a micro and macro environmental level contributes to our knowledge of localised drug problems and their relationship with social exclusion, and leads to the development of the concept of a risk environment for drug problems with consequent potential for informing grounded policy interventions

Stochastic Models for the Kinematics of Moisture Transport and Condensation in Homogeneous Turbulent Flows

The transport of a condensing passive scalar is studied as a prototype model for the kinematics of moisture transport on isentropic surfaces. Condensation occurs whenever the scalar concentration exceeds a specified local saturation value. Since condensation rates are strongly nonlinear functions of moisture content, the mean moisture flux is generally not diffusive. To relate the mean moisture content, mean condensation rate, and mean moisture flux to statistics of the advecting velocity field, a one-dimensional stochastic model is developed in which the Lagrangian velocities of air parcels are independent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (Gaussian colored noise) processes. The mean moisture evolution equation for the stochastic model is derived in the Brownian and ballistic limits of small and large Lagrangian velocity correlation time. The evolution equation involves expressions for the mean moisture flux and mean condensation rate that are nonlocal but remarkably simple. In a series of simulations of homogeneous two-dimensional turbulence, the dependence of mean moisture flux and mean condensation rate on mean saturation deficit is shown to be reproducible by the one-dimensional stochastic model, provided eddy length and time scales are taken as given. For nonzero Lagrangian velocity correlation times, condensation reduces the mean moisture flux for a given mean moisture gradient compared with the mean flux of a noncondensing scalar

The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM

A wide range of hydrological cycles and general circulations was simulated with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) by varying the optical thickness of the longwave absorber. While the idealized GCM does not capture the full complexity of the hydrological cycle, the wide range of climates simulated allows the systematic development and testing of theories of how precipitation and moisture transport change as the climate changes. The simulations show that the character of the response of the hydrological cycle to variations in longwave optical thickness differs in different climate regimes. The global-mean precipitation increases linearly with surface temperature for colder climates, but it asymptotically approaches a maximum at higher surface temperatures. The basic features of the precipitation–temperature relation, including the rate of increase in the linear regime, are reproduced in radiative–convective equilibrium simulations. Energy constraints partially account for the precipitation–temperature relation but are not quantitatively accurate. Large-scale condensation is most important in the midlatitude storm tracks, and its behavior is accounted for using a stochastic model of moisture advection and condensation. The precipitation associated with large-scale condensation does not scale with mean specific humidity, partly because the condensation region moves upward and meridionally as the climate warms, and partly because the mean condensation rate depends on isentropic specific humidity gradients, which do not scale with the specific humidity itself. The local water vapor budget relates local precipitation to evaporation and meridional moisture fluxes, whose scaling in the subtropics and extratropics is examined. A delicate balance between opposing changes in evaporation and moisture flux divergence holds in the subtropical dry zones. The extratropical precipitation maximum follows the storm track in warm climates but lies equatorward of the storm track in cold climates

Moist Convection and the Thermal Stratification of the Extratropical Troposphere

Simulations with an aquaplanet general circulation model show that sensible and latent heat transport by large-scale eddies influences the extratropical thermal stratification over a wide range of climates, even in relatively warm climates with small meridional surface temperature gradients. Variations of the lapse rate toward which the parameterized moist convection in the model relaxes atmospheric temperature profiles demonstrate that the convective lapse rate only marginally affects the extratropical thermal stratification in Earth-like and colder climates. In warmer climates, the convective lapse rate does affect the extratropical thermal stratification, but the effect is still smaller than would be expected if moist convection alone controlled the thermal stratification. A theory for how large-scale eddies modify the thermal stratification of dry atmospheres is consistent with the simulation results for colder climates. For warmer and moister climates, however, theories and heuristics that have been proposed to account for the extratropical thermal stratification are not consistent with the simulation results. Theories for the extratropical thermal stratification will generally have to take transport of sensible and latent heat by large-scale eddies into account, but moist convection may only need to be taken into account regionally and in sufficiently warm climates

Weather-Layer Dynamics of Baroclinic Eddies and Multiple Jets in an Idealized General Circulation Model

The general circulation and the behavior of multiple jets and baroclinic eddies are described for an atmosphere in which meridional potential temperature gradients and eddies are confined to a weather layer. The weather layer is separated from the frictional lower boundary by a statically stable barotropic layer with significant mass. Closure of the zonal momentum budget in the resulting circulation is achieved through ageostrophic meridional cells that extend to the lower boundary, at which momentum is dissipated. In a series of simulations with a multilevel primitive equation model, dynamic changes in the static stability of the weather layer are found to be critical in determining the scaling of the baroclinic eddies, an effect not captured in quasigeostrophic models. For simulations with a single jet in each hemisphere, the static stability of the weather layer adjusts so that a significant inverse energy cascade to scales larger than the Rossby deformation radius does not occur. The eddy length is found to scale with both the Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines scale. Simulations with larger planetary radii and low pole-to-equator temperature gradients exhibit multiple jets in each hemisphere. Eddy lengths and energies for the jet nearest the equator in each hemisphere have the same scaling as those in the single-jet simulations. Similar scalings are found for jets farther poleward but with different constants of proportionality that are consistent with more supercritical eddies. The local eddy length is found to have only a weak variation with latitude, and the local meridional jet spacing is found to scale with the local eddy length in all cases. Insights from the weather-layer simulations may be relevant to circulations in gas giant planets and the ocean

The velocity-scalar cross spectrum of stretched spiral vortices

The stretched-spiral vortex model is used to calculate the velocity-scalar cross spectrum for homogeneous, isotropic turbulence in the presence of a mean scalar gradient. The only nonzero component of the cospectrum is that contributed by the velocity component in the direction of the imposed scalar gradient while the quadrature spectrum is identically zero, in agreement with experiment. For the velocity field provided by the stretched-spiral vortex, the velocity-scalar spectrum can be divided into two additive components contributed by the velocity components along the vortex axis, and in the plane normal to this axis, respectively. For the axial velocity field, a new exact solution of the scalar convection-diffusion equation is found exhibiting scalar variation in the direction of the vortex tube axis. An asymptotic expression was found for the cospectrum contributed by this solution and the axial velocity, with the leading order term showing a k–5/3 range. This term is produced by the winding of the initial axial velocity field by the axisymmetric vortex core. The next order term gives a k–7/3 range, and arises from the lowest order effect of the nonaxisymmetric vorticity on the evolution of the axial velocity. Its coefficient can be of either sign or zero depending on the initial conditions. The contribution to the cospectrum from the velocity in the plane of the vortex is also calculated, but no universal high wave number asymptotic form is found. The integrals are evaluated numerically and it is found that the resulting cospectrum does not remain of one sign. Its form depends on the choice of the vortex core velocity profile and time cutoff in the spectral integrals. The one-dimensional cospectrum contributed by the axial velocity is compared with the experimental data of Mydlarski and Warhaft [J. Fluid Mech. 358, 135–175 (1998)]

Effect of Schmidt number on the velocity–scalar cospectrum in isotropic turbulence with a mean scalar gradient

We consider transport of a passive scalar by an isotropic turbulent velocity field in the presence of a mean scalar gradient. The velocity–scalar cospectrum measures the distribution of the mean scalar flux across scales. An inequality is shown to bound the magnitude of the cospectrum in terms of the shell-summed energy and scalar spectra. At high Schmidt number, this bound limits the possible contribution of the sub-Kolmogorov scales to the scalar flux. At low Schmidt number, we derive an asymptotic result for the cospectrum in the inertial–diffusive range, with a -11/3 power law wavenumber dependence, and a comparison is made with results from large-eddy simulation. The sparse direct-interaction perturbation (SDIP) is used to calculate the cospectrum for a range of Schmidt numbers. The Lumley scaling result is recovered in the inertial–convective range and the constant of proportionality was calculated. At high Schmidt numbers, the cospectrum is found to decay exponentially in the viscous–convective range, and at low Schmidt numbers, the -11/3 power law is observed in the inertial–diffusive range. Results are reported for the cospectrum from a direct numerical simulation at a Taylor Reynolds number of 265, and a comparison is made at Schmidt number order unity between theory, simulation and experiment

Monastic hospitality : explorations

In a theoretical model, religious retreats are placed by Lynch (2005a) within the category of traditional commercial homes, noting that the essence of a commercial home is the use of the home as a vehicle for generating income. Lynch (2005b:539) describes the 'commercial home host' as "the principal contact whom the guest encounters when staying in the commercial home," and further states that "the host is central to the product experience in commercial homes. Successful stays from a guest perspective are dependent upon the quality of host-guest interactions" (Lynch 2005c:541). This chapter explores the provision of hospitality within Benedictine Monastries in order to contribute to insights on the commercial home, and starts by locating them within the context of literature on religious tourism and the umbrella term 'religious retreat house'