Development of an enhanced health-economic model and cost-effectiveness analysis of tiotropium + olodaterol Respimat® fixed-dose combination for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients in Italy

Background: The objective of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination (FDC) of tiotropium + olodaterol Respimat® FDC with tiotropium alone for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the Italian health care setting using a newly developed patient-level Markov model that reflects the current understanding of the disease. Methods: While previously published models have largely been based around a cohort approach using a Markov structure and GOLD stage stratification, an individual-level Markov approach was selected for the new model. Using patient-level data from the twin TOnado trials assessing Tiotropium + olodaterol Respimat® FDC versus tiotropium, outcomes were modelled based on the trough forced expiratory volume (tFEV1) of over 1000 patients in each treatment arm, tracked individually at trial visits through the 52-week trial period, and after the trial period it was assumed to decline at a constant rate based on disease stage. Exacerbation risk was estimated based on a random-effects logistic regression analysis of exacerbations in UPLIFT. Mortality by age and disease stage was estimated from an analysis of TIOSPIR trial data. Cost of bronchodilators and other medications, routine management, and costs of treatment for moderate and severe exacerbations for the Italian setting were included. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted over a 15-year time horizon from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. Results: Aggregating total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each treatment cohort over 15 years and comparing tiotropium + olodaterol Respimat® FDC with tiotropium alone, resulted in mean incremental co