13 research outputs found

    Correlation among observed H1N1 peaks and simulated peaks based on different migration rate models.

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    <p>The simulations were performed using (A) an equal rate matrix, (B) a matrix of airline passengers flows, (C) standard phylogeographic estimates and (D) GLM phylogeographic estimates only considering air travel as a predictor. Spearman rank correlations () and mean absolute error (MAE; in days) considering all locations except for Mexico are provided for each comparison. The data points are colored according to the air communities represented in <a href="http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1003932#ppat-1003932-g001" target="_blank">Fig. 1</a>. The dotted lines represent a 1-to-1 correspondence between observed peaks and simulated H1N1 peaks.</p

    14 global air communities identified through a modularity maximization analyses of air transportation data.

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    <p>The colored dots represent the airports in each community for which passenger flux data was used in the analysis. The areas with corresponding colors represent the geographical area within the communities for which H3N2 sequence samples were available. The 14 communities and associated data are listed in <a href="http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1003932#ppat.1003932.s007" target="_blank">Text S1</a>.</p

    Predictors of global H3N2 diffusion among the 14 air communities and the 15 & 26 geographic locations.

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    <p>The inclusion probabilities are defined by the indicator expectations because they reflect the frequency at which the predictor is included in the model and therefore represent the support for the predictor. Indicator expectations corresponding to Bayes factor support values of 10 and 100 are represented by a thin and thick vertical line respectively in these bar plots. The contribution of each predictor, when included in the model (), where is the coefficient or effect size, is represented by the mean and credible intervals of the GLM coefficients on a log scale. NA<sup>1</sup>: no conditional effect size available because the predictor was never included in the model. We tested different population size and density measures, different incidence-based measures and different seasonal measures (<a href="http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1003932#ppat.1003932.s007" target="_blank">Text S1</a>), but only list the estimates for a representative predictor for the sake of clarity. The estimates for the full set of predictors are summarized for each sub-sampled data set in <a href="http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.1003932#ppat.1003932.s006" target="_blank">Fig. S5</a>. NA<sup>2</sup>: no indicator expectation or conditional effect size available because the predictor was not available for this discretization of the sequence data.</p

    Phylogeographic reconstruction and spatial history of the trunk lineage.

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    <p>Maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree colored according to the time spent in the air communities as inferred by the GLM diffusion model. The tree represents one of the three different sub-sampled data sets discretized according to the 14 air communities. Branches are colored according the Markov reward estimates for each location. The uncertainty of these estimates is represented by superimposing an additional gray color proportional to the Shannon entropy of the Markov reward values. The trunk lineage in the tree is represented by the thick upper branch path from the root to the nodes that represent the ancestors of samples that are exclusively from December 2006. The total time spent in each location (in years) along the trunk between 2002 and 2006 is plotted on the left of the tree. The trunk reward proportion for each location through time between 2002 and 2006 is summarized at the top of the tree. Both the total trunk time and the trunk reward proportions through time are averaged over the three sub-sampled data sets. In the trunk proportion through time plot, the number of Southeast Asian and Chinese samples are represented by a white full and dashed line respectively (secondary Y-axis).</p
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