Spatial modeling of personalized exposure dynamics: the case of pesticide use in small-scale agricultural production landscapes of the developing world

Background: Pesticide poisoning is a global health issue with the largest impacts in the developing countries where residential and small-scale agricultural areas are often integrated and pesticides sprayed manually. To reduce health risks from pesticide exposure approaches for personalized exposure assessment (PEA) are needed. We present a conceptual framework to develop a spatial individual-based model (IBM) prototype for assessing potential exposure of farm-workers conducting small-scale agricultural production, which accounts for a considerable portion of global food crop production. Our approach accounts for dynamics in the contaminant distributions in the environment, as well as patterns of movement and activities performed on an individual level under different safety scenarios. We demonstrate a first prototype using data from a study area in a rural part of Colombia, South America. Results: Different safety scenarios of PEA were run by including weighting schemes for activities performed under different safety conditions. We examined the sensitivity of individual exposure estimates to varying patterns of pesticide application and varying individual patterns of movement. This resulted in a considerable variation in estimates of magnitude, frequency and duration of exposure over the model runs for each individual as well as between individuals. These findings indicate the influence of patterns of pesticide application, individual spatial patterns of movement as well as safety conditions on personalized exposure in the agricultural production landscape that is the focus of our research. Conclusion: This approach represents a conceptual framework for developing individual based models to carry out PEA in small-scale agricultural settings in the developing world based on individual patterns of movement, safety conditions, and dynamic contaminant distributions. The results of our analysis indicate our prototype model is sufficiently sensitive to differentiate and quantify the influence of individual patterns of movement and decision-based pesticide management activities on potential exposure. This approach represents a framework for further understanding the contribution of agricultural pesticide use to exposure in the small-scale agricultural production landscape of many developing countries, and could be useful to evaluate public health intervention strategies to reduce risks to farm-workers and their families. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model

Using Landsat satellite data to support pesticide exposure assessment in California

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The recent U.S. Geological Survey policy offering Landsat satellite data at no cost provides researchers new opportunities to explore relationships between environment and health. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential for using Landsat satellite data to support pesticide exposure assessment in California.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>We collected a dense time series of 24 Landsat 5 and 7 images spanning the year 2000 for an agricultural region in Fresno County. We intersected the Landsat time series with the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) land use map and selected field samples to define the phenological characteristics of 17 major crop types or crop groups. We found the frequent overpass of Landsat enabled detection of crop field conditions (e.g., bare soil, vegetated) over most of the year. However, images were limited during the winter months due to cloud cover. Many samples designated as single-cropped in the CDWR map had phenological patterns that represented multi-cropped or non-cropped fields, indicating they may have been misclassified.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found the combination of Landsat 5 and 7 image data would clearly benefit pesticide exposure assessment in this region by 1) providing information on crop field conditions at or near the time when pesticides are applied, and 2) providing information for validating the CDWR map. The Landsat image time-series was useful for identifying idle, single-, and multi-cropped fields. Landsat data will be limited during the winter months due to cloud cover, and for years prior to the Landsat 7 launch (1999) when only one satellite was operational at any given time. We suggest additional research to determine the feasibility of integrating CDWR land use maps and Landsat data to derive crop maps in locations and time periods where maps are not available, which will allow for substantial improvements to chemical exposure estimation.</p

Using Geographic Information Systems for Exposure Assessment in Environmental Epidemiology Studies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are being used with increasing frequency in environmental epidemiology studies. Reported applications include locating the study population by geocoding addresses (assigning mapping coordinates), using proximity analysis of contaminant source as a surrogate for exposure, and integrating environmental monitoring data into the analysis of the health outcomes. Although most of these studies have been ecologic in design, some have used GIS in estimating environmental levels of a contaminant at the individual level and to design exposure metrics for use in epidemiologic studies. In this article we discuss fundamentals of three scientific disciplines instrumental to using GIS in exposure assessment for epidemiologic studies: geospatial science, environmental science, and epidemiology. We also explore how a GIS can be used to accomplish several steps in the exposure assessment process. These steps include defining the study population, identifying source and potential routes of exposure, estimating environmental levels of target contaminants, and estimating personal exposures. We present and discuss examples for the first three steps. We discuss potential use of GIS and global positioning systems (GPS) in the last step. On the basis of our findings, we conclude that the use of GIS in exposure assessment for environmental epidemiology studies is not only feasible but can enhance the understanding of the association between contaminants in our environment and disease

Agricultural Pesticide Use and Hypospadias in Eastern Arkansas

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the relationship between hypospadias and proximity to agricultural pesticide applications using a GIS-based exposure method. METHODS: We obtained information for 354 cases of hypospadias born between 1998 and 2002 in eastern Arkansas; 727 controls were selected from birth certificates. We classified exposure on pounds of pesticides (estimated by crop type) applied or persisting within 500 m of each subject’s home during gestational weeks 6 to 16. We restricted our analyses to 38 pesticides with some evidence of reproductive, developmental, estrogenic, and/or antiandrogenic effects. We estimated timing of pesticide applications using crop phenology and published records. RESULTS: Gestational age at birth [odds ratio (OR) = 0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.83–0.99], parity (OR = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65–0.95), and delaying prenatal care until the third trimester (OR = 4.04; 95% CI, 1.46–11.23) were significantly associated with hypospadias. Risk of hypospadias increased by 8% for every 0.05-pound increase in estimated exposure to diclofop-methyl use (OR = 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01–1.15). Pesticide applications in aggregate (OR = 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70–0.96) and applications of alachlor (OR = 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35–0.89) and permethrin (OR = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.16–0.86) were negatively associated with hypospadias. CONCLUSIONS: Except for diclofop-methyl, we did not find evidence that estimated exposure to pesticides known to have reproductive, developmental, or endocrine-disrupting effects increases risk of hypospadias. Further research on the potential effects of exposure to diclofop-methyl is recommended

Modeled nitrate levels in well water supplies and prevalence of abnormal thyroid conditions among the Old Order Amish in Pennsylvania

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nitrate is a widespread contaminant of drinking water supplies, especially in agricultural areas. Nitrate intake from drinking water and dietary sources can interfere with the uptake of iodide by the thyroid, thus potentially impacting thyroid function.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We assessed the relation of estimated nitrate levels in well water supplies with thyroid health in a cohort of 2,543 Old Order Amish residing in Lancaster, Chester, and Lebanon counties in Pennsylvania for whom thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels were measured during 1995-2008. Nitrate measurement data (1976-2006) for 3,613 wells in the study area were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey and we used these data to estimate concentrations at study participants' residences using a standard linear mixed effects model that included hydrogeological covariates and kriging of the wells' residuals. Nitrate levels estimated by the model ranged from 0.35 mg/L to 16.4 mg/L N-NO₃^-, with a median value of 6.5 mg/L, which was used as the cutpoint to define high and low nitrate exposure. In a validation analysis of the model, we calculated that the sensitivity of the model was 67% and the specificity was 93%. TSH levels were used to define the following outcomes: clinical hyperthyroidism (n = 10), clinical hypothyroidism (n = 56), subclinical hyperthyroidism (n = 25), and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 228).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In women, high nitrate exposure was significantly associated with subclinical hypothyroidism (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.11-2.32). Nitrate was not associated with subclinical thyroid disease in men or with clinical thyroid disease in men or women.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although these data do not provide strong support for an association between nitrate in drinking water and thyroid health, our results do suggest that further exploration of this hypothesis is warranted using studies that incorporate individual measures of both dietary and drinking water nitrate intake.</p

Estimating Water Supply Arsenic Levels in the New England Bladder Cancer Study

Background: Ingestion of inorganic arsenic in drinking water is recognized as a cause of bladder cancer when levels are relatively high (≥ 150 µg/L). The epidemiologic evidence is less clear at the low-to-moderate concentrations typically observed in the United States. Accurate retrospective exposure assessment over a long time period is a major challenge in conducting epidemiologic studies of environmental factors and diseases with long latency, such as cancer. Objective: We estimated arsenic concentrations in the water supplies of 2,611 participants in a population-based case–control study in northern New England. Methods: Estimates covered the lifetimes of most study participants and were based on a combination of arsenic measurements at the homes of the participants and statistical modeling of arsenic concentrations in the water supply of both past and current homes. We assigned a residential water supply arsenic concentration for 165,138 (95%) of the total 173,361 lifetime exposure years (EYs) and a workplace water supply arsenic level for 85,195 EYs (86% of reported occupational years). Results: Three methods accounted for 93% of the residential estimates of arsenic concentration: direct measurement of water samples (27%; median, 0.3 µg/L; range, 0.1–11.5), statistical models of water utility measurement data (49%; median, 0.4 µg/L; range, 0.3–3.3), and statistical models of arsenic concentrations in wells using aquifers in New England (17%; median, 1.6 µg/L; range, 0.6–22.4). Conclusions: We used a different validation procedure for each of the three methods, and found our estimated levels to be comparable with available measured concentrations. This methodology allowed us to calculate potential drinking water exposure over long periods

Influence of Tap Water Quality and Household Water Use Activities on Indoor Air and Internal Dose Levels of Trihalomethanes

Individual exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) in tap water can occur through ingestion, inhalation, or dermal exposure. Studies indicate that activities associated with inhaled or dermal exposure routes result in a greater increase in blood THM concentration than does ingestion. We measured blood and exhaled air concentrations of THM as biomarkers of exposure to participants conducting 14 common household water use activities, including ingestion of hot and cold tap water beverages, showering, clothes washing, hand washing, bathing, dish washing, and indirect shower exposure. We conducted our study at a single residence in each of two water utility service areas, one with relatively high and the other low total THM in the residence tap water. To maintain a consistent exposure environment for seven participants, we controlled water use activities, exposure time, air exchange, water flow and temperature, and nonstudy THM sources to the indoor air. We collected reference samples for water supply and air (pre–water use activity), as well as tap water and ambient air samples. We collected blood samples before and after each activity and exhaled breath samples at baseline and postactivity. All hot water use activities yielded a 2-fold increase in blood or breath THM concentrations for at least one individual. The greatest observed increase in blood and exhaled breath THM concentration in any participant was due to showering (direct and indirect), bathing, and hand dishwashing. Average increase in blood THM concentration ranged from 57 to 358 pg/mL due to these activities. More research is needed to determine whether acute and frequent exposures to THM at these concentrations have public health implications. Further research is also needed in designing epidemiologic studies that minimize data collection burden yet maximize accuracy in classification of dermal and inhalation THM exposure during hot water use activities

Determinants of Agricultural Pesticide Concentrations in Carpet Dust

Background: Residential proximity to agricultural pesticide applications has been used as a surrogate for exposure in epidemiologic studies, although little is known about the relationship with levels of pesticides in homes

Assessing exposure in epidemiologic studies to disinfection by-products in drinking water: report from an international workshop.

The inability to accurately assess exposure has been one of the major shortcomings of epidemiologic studies of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water. A number of contributing factors include a) limited information on the identity, occurrence, toxicity, and pharmacokinetics of the many DBPs that can be formed from chlorine, chloramine, ozone, and chlorine dioxide disinfection; b) the complex chemical interrelationships between DBPs and other parameters within a municipal water distribution system; and c) difficulties obtaining accurate and reliable information on personal activity and water consumption patterns. In May 2000, an international workshop was held to bring together various disciplines to develop better approaches for measuring DBP exposure for epidemiologic studies. The workshop reached consensus about the clear need to involve relevant disciplines (e.g., chemists, engineers, toxicologists, biostatisticians and epidemiologists) as partners in developing epidemiologic studies of DBPs in drinking water. The workshop concluded that greater collaboration of epidemiologists with water utilities and regulators should be encouraged in order to make regulatory monitoring data more useful for epidemiologic studies. Similarly, exposure classification categories in epidemiologic studies should be chosen to make results useful for regulatory or policy decision making

Carpet-dust chemicals as measures of exposure: Implications of variability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing interest in using chemicals measured in carpet dust as indicators of chemical exposures. However, investigators have rarely sampled dust repeatedly from the same households and therefore little is known about the variability of chemical levels that exist within and between households in dust samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We analyzed 9 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 6 polychlorinated biphenyls, and nicotine in 68 carpet-dust samples from 21 households in agricultural communities of Fresno County, California collected from 2003-2005. Chemical concentrations (ng per g dust) ranged from < 2-3,609 for 9 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from < 1-150 for 6 polychlorinated biphenyls, and from < 20-7,776 for nicotine. We used random-effects models to estimate variance components for concentrations of each of these carpet-dust chemicals and calculated the variance ratio, λ, defined as the ratio of the within-household variance component to the between-household variance component. Subsequently, we used the variance ratios calculated from our data, to illustrate the potential effect of measurement error on the attenuation of odds ratios in hypothetical case-control studies. We found that the median value of the estimated variance ratios was 0.33 (range: 0.13-0.72). Correspondingly, in case-control studies of associations between these carpet-dust chemicals and disease, given the collection of only one measurement per household and a hypothetical odds ratio of 1.5, we expect that the observed odds ratios would range from 1.27 to 1.43. Moreover, for each of the chemicals analyzed, the collection of three repeated dust samples would limit the expected magnitude of odds ratio attenuation to less than 20%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that attenuation bias should be relatively modest when using these semi-volatile carpet-dust chemicals as exposure surrogates in epidemiologic studies.</p