Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations

A coincidence in time between the volatility break associated with the "Great Moderation" and large changes in the pattern of conditional and unconditional correlations between output, hours and labor productivity was detected by Galí and Gambetti (2009). We provide a novel explanation for these findings, based on the major changes that occurred in the U.S. design of labor compensation around the mid-1980s. These include a substantial increase in the incidence of performance pay coupled with a higher responsiveness of real wages to the business cycle. We capture this shift in the structure of labor compensation in a Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model and show that, by itself, it generates the disappearance of the procyclical response of labor productivity to non-technology shocks and a reduction of the contractionary effects of technology shocks on hours worked. Moreover, it accounts for a large share of the observed drop in output volatility after 1984 and for most of the observed changes in unconditional correlations.procyclical productivity, wage rigidities, performance pay.

Investment and the Exchange Rate

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the investment decisions of a sample of Italian manufacturing firms. The results support the view that a depreciation of the exchange rate has a positive effect on investment through the revenue channel, and a negative effect through the cost channel. The magnitude of these effects varies over time with changes in the firm’s external orientation, as measured by the share of foreign sales over total sales and the reliance on imported inputs. Consistent with the predictions of our theoretical framework, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on investment is stronger for firms with low monopoly power and for those facing a high degree of import penetration in the domestic market. We also provide evidence that the degree of substitutability between domestically-produced and imported inputs influences the effect through the expenditure side.exchange rate, investment, Firm's exposure

Unobserved Factor Utilization, Technology Shocks and Business Cycles

We derive a measure of technological change using firm-level panel data and controlling for imperfect competition, increasing returns and unobserved factor utilization. We show that the latter variable accounts for a relevant portion of the cyclicality of the Solow residual. Our key finding is that technological shocks result in a contraction of inputs on impact. Whilst this result is hard to reconcile with the transmission mechanism of real business cycle models, it is consistent with simple sticky-price models. Using survey information on the frequency and size of price revisions, we show that the evidence on the contractionary effects of technology shocks is indeed much stronger for firms with stickier prices.factor hoarding, technology shocks, business cycles

Pricing behavior and the comovement of productivity and labor: evidence from firm-level data

Recent contributions have suggested that technology shocks have a negative short-run effect on labor input, contrary to the predictions of standard flexible-price models of the business cycle. Some authors have interpreted this finding as evidence in favor of stickyprice models, while others have either augmented flexible-price models in a number of ways or disputed the empirical finding itself. In this paper we estimate a number of alternative measures of TFP growth for a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms and find a negative impact of productivity shocks on labor input. Furthermore, by relying on the firmlevel reported frequency of price reviews, we find that the contractionary effect is strong for firms with stickier prices, but it is weaker or not significant for firms with more flexible prices, consistently with the prediction of sticky-price models.Productivity shocks, Labor input, price stickiness

Labor effort over the business cycle

Unobservable labor utilization is recognized as a crucial feature of economic fluctuations. Yet very little is known on the behavior of work effort over the business cycle. By using firm-level panel data drawn from two high-quality sources, we obtain a microeconomic estimate of variable labor effort from a dynamic cost minimization set-up. We argue that, contrary to common assumptions, the relationship between effort and hours is not monotonic. During a recovery, if a critical level of hours per capita is reached (say, because of labor market rigidities), every additional hour is worked with decreasing effort, due to physical fatigue. We provide supporting evidence by estimating the structural parameters of a Taylor approximation of the effort function. Corroborating evidence has been obtained by estimating the elasticity of effort with respect to hours at different business cycle conditions.labor effort, factor hoarding, business cycles

Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on the firm's exposure to foreign sales and its reliance on imported inputs. Further, we show that, for given international orientation, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Further, wage adjustments are also shown to provide a channel through which firms react to currency shocks. Finally, gross job flows within the firm are found to depend on exchange rate fluctuations, although the effect on job creation is predominant.Employment, Exchange Rate, Firm's Foreign Exposure

Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and

In this paper we compare the dynamic properties of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM) with those of QUEST III, the endogenous growth model of the European Commission (DG ECFIN) in the version calibrated for Italy. We consider an array of shocks often examined in policy simulations and investigate their implications on macro variables. In doing so, we analyse the main transmission channels in the two models and provide a comparative assessment of the magnitude and the persistence of the effects, trying to ascertain whether the responses to shocks are consistent with the predictions of economic theory. We show that, despite substantial differences between the two models, the responses of the key variables are qualitatively similar when we consider competition enhancing policies and labour productivity improvements. On the other hand, we observe quantitative disparities between the two models, mainly due to the forward-looking behaviour and the endogenous growth mechanism incorporated into the QUEST model but not in ITEM. The simulation results show that Quest III is a powerful tool to capture the effects of structural economic reforms, like competitionenhancing policies or innovation-promoting policies. On the other hand, owing to the breakdown of fiscal variables in a large number of components, ITEM is arguably more suitable for the quantitative evaluation of fiscal policy and the study of the impact of reforms on the public sector balance sheet.Economic Modelling, DSGE, Structural Reforms, Italy

The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. The model has a quarterly frequency and includes 371 variables. Out of these, 124 are exogenous and 247 endogenous. The model structure features 36 behavioral equations and 211 identities. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economic environment on both the demand and the supply side. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue side. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variation of variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, variables that exert their effects on the demand side have only temporary effects on output. We also perform in-sample dynamic simulation of the model. This allows us to derive simulated values of all the endogenous variables which can be compared with the corresponding actual values. This allows us to appraise, for each aggregate, whether the simulated values track the observed data.Macroeconometric models; Economic Policy

Digital technologies and productivity. A firm-level investigation

We characterize the process of digital transformation of Italian firms and the impact on TFP. Using information of unusual breadth on different types of investments in digital technologies, we consider various dimensions of digital adoption such as whether firms invested in advanced domains (like AI) or bundles of more than one technology. We investigate the effects of digital technologies on productivity using alternative criteria to classify firms as digital adopters. With our baseline definition, the estimated effect on the percentage change in TFP between 2015 and 2018 is about one percentage point (0.97). With more restrictive definitions of digital adoption, the estimated impact is found to be larger, and it is largest when digital adoption is associated with investments in at least one AI-related technology. We also show that, in general, the effect of digital adoption is more sizeable in the service sector, in larger firms and in older firms