Stochastic Perturbations of Periodic Orbits with Sliding

Vector fields that are discontinuous on codimension-one surfaces are known as Filippov systems and can have attracting periodic orbits involving segments that are contained on a discontinuity surface of the vector field. In this paper we consider the addition of small noise to a general Filippov system and study the resulting stochastic dynamics near such a periodic orbit. Since a straight-forward asymptotic expansion in terms of the noise amplitude is not possible due to the presence of discontinuity surfaces, in order to quantitatively determine the basic statistical properties of the dynamics, we treat different parts of the periodic orbit separately. Dynamics distant from discontinuity surfaces is analyzed by the use of a series expansion of the transitional probability density function. Stochastically perturbed sliding motion is analyzed through stochastic averaging methods. The influence of noise on points at which the periodic orbit escapes a discontinuity surface is determined by zooming into the transition point. We combine the results to quantitatively determine the effect of noise on the oscillation time for a three-dimensional canonical model of relay control. For some parameter values of this model, small noise induces a significantly large reduction in the average oscillation time. By interpreting our results geometrically, we are able to identify four features of the relay control system that contribute to this phenomenon.Comment: 44 pages, 9 figures, submitted to: J Nonlin. Sc

Assessment of different urban traffic control strategy impacts on vehicle emissions

This paper investigates the influence of traffic signal control strategy on vehicle emissions, vehicle journey time and total throughput flow within a single isolated four-armed junction. Two pre-timed signal plans are considered, one with two-stages involving permissive-only opposing turns and the other with four-stages which has no conflicting traffic. Additionally, the increase in efficiency by utilising actuated signal timing where green time is re-optimised as flow values vary is investigated. A microscopic traffic simulation model is used to model flows and AIRE (Analysis of Instantaneous Road Emissions) microscopic emissions model is utilised to out- put emission levels from the flow data. A simple junction model shows that the two-stage signal plan is more efficient in both emis- sions and journey time. However, as the level of opposed turning vehicles and conflicting movement increases, the two-stage model moves to being the inferior signal plan choice and the four-stage plan outputs fewer emissions than the two-stage plan. A real-world example of a four-armed junction has been used in this study and from the traffic survey data and existing junction layout; it is rec- ommended that a two-stage plan is used as it produces lower amounts of emissions and shorter journey times compared to a four-stage plan. The results also show that nitrogen oxides (NOx) are the most sensitive to changes in flow followed by carbon dioxide (CO2), Black Carbon and then particulate matter (PM10)

Energy-balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed

New methodology for assessing the probability of contaminating Mars

Methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will be contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. The present NASA methods are extended to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Different types of microbial release are distinguished, and for each release mechanism a probability of growth is computed. Using this new methodology, an assessment was carried out for the 1975 Viking landings on Mars. The resulting probability of contamination for each Viking lander is 6 x 10 to the -6 power, and is amenable to revision as additional information becomes available

Assessment of the probability of contaminating Mars

New methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will by biologically contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. Present NASA methods are based on the Sagan-Coleman formula, which states that the probability of contamination is the product of the expected microbial release and a probability of growth. The proposed new methodology extends the Sagan-Coleman approach to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Three different types of microbial release are distinguished in the model for assessing the probability of contamination. The number of viable microbes released by each mechanism depends on the bio-burden in various locations on the spacecraft and on whether the spacecraft landing is accomplished according to plan. For each of the three release mechanisms a probability of growth is computed, using a model for transport into an environment suited to microbial growth

Empirical constraints on vacuum decay in the stringy landscape

It is generally considered as self evident that the lifetime of our vacuum in the landscape of string theory cannot be much shorter than the current age of the universe. Here I show why this lower limit is invalid. A certain type of ``parallel universes'' is a necessary consequence of the string-landscape dynamics and might well allow us to ``survive'' vacuum decay. As a consequence our stringy vacuum's lifetime is empirically unconstrained and could be very short. Based on this counter-intuitive insight I propose a novel type of laboratory experiment that searches for an apparent violation of the quantum-mechanical Born rule by gravitational effects on vacuum decay. If the lifetime of our vacuum should turn out to be shorter than 6 x 10^{-13} seconds such an experiment is sufficiently sensitive to determine its value with state-of-the-art equipment.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, proposes a laboratory experimen

The Angular Diameter and Fundamental Parameters of Sirius A

The Sydney University Stellar Interferometer (SUSI) has been used to make a new determination of the angular diameter of Sirius A. The observations were made at an effective wavelength of 694.1 nm and the new value for the limb-darkened angular diameter is 6.048 +/- 0.040mas (+/-0.66%). This new result is compared with previous measurements and is found to be in excellent agreement with a conventionally calibrated measurement made with the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) at 2.176 microns (but not with a second globally calibrated VLTI measurement). A weighted mean of the SUSI and first VLTI results gives the limb-darkened angular diameter of Sirius A as 6.041 +/- 0.017mas (+/-0.28%). Combination with the Hipparcos parallax gives the radius equal to 1.713 +/- 0.009R_sun. The bolometric flux has been determined from published photometry and spectrophotometry and, combined with the angular diameter, yields the emergent flux at the stellar surface equal to (5.32+/- 0.14)x10^8 Wm^-2 and the effective temperature equal to 9845 +/- 64 K. The luminosity is 24.7 +/- 0.7 L_sun.Comment: Accepted for publication in PAS