The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between credit default swap, bond and stock markets during the period 2000-2002. Focusing on the intertemporal comovement, we examine weekly and daily lead-lag relationships in a vector autoregressive model and the adjustment between markets caused by cointegration. First, we find that stock returns lead CDS and bond spread changes. Second, CDS spread changes Granger cause bond spread changes for a higher number of firms than vice versa. Third, the CDS market is significantly more sensitive to the stock market than the bond market and the magnitude of this sensitivity increases when credit quality becomes worse. Finally, the CDS market plays a more important role for price discovery than the corporate bond market.Credit risk; Credit spreads; Credit derivatives; Lead-lag relationship

Why business credit information sharing leads to better lending decisions

__Abstract__ Bad loans are made in boom times. Good loans are made in recessionary times. Lenders such as suppliers who provide trade credit or banks would be well advised to remember this simple dictum whenever they are approached for credit by a borrower not entirely familiar to them

Funding modes of German banks: structural changes and its implications

This paper examines funding modes of German banks and its implications for lending and profitability over the period 1992-2002. Analyzing individual-bank data from the Deutsche Bundesbank, we first find that deposits from customers lose ground in relative terms while interbank liabilities increase as a source of funding. Second, we cannot detect a negative impact of the relative decline in deposits on the lending business. In contrast, loans to customers become even slightly more important. Third, the decreasing ability of banks to mobilize deposits from customers and the substitution of deposits by interbank liabilities unfavorably affects the net interest results of savings banks

Checking account information and credit risk of bank customers

We investigate if information from checking accounts may help banks to monitor the credit risk of their customers. Analyzing a unique data set with more than 3 million account-month observations from the period 2002-2006, we find that the credit line usage, the cumulative number of limit violations, the account amplitude and credit payments exhibit an abnormal pattern approximately 12 months before default events. Differentiating by customer type reveals that checking account information is particularly helpful for monitoring small businesses and individuals. We condition the checking account behavior on customers' internal credit ratings and control for credit line changes as well as bank relationship characteristics like the number of accounts, distance and duration

The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets : an empirical analysis

This Paper analyses the empirical relationship between credit default swap, bond and stock markets during the period 2000-02. Focusing on the intertemporal comovement, we examine weekly and daily lead-lag relationships in a vector autoregressive model and the adjustment between markets caused by cointegration. First, we find that stock returns lead CDS and bond spread changes. Second, CDS spread changes Granger cause bond spread changes for a higher number of firms than vice versa. Third, the CDS market is significantly more sensitive to the stock market than the bond market and the magnitude of this sensitivity increases when credit quality becomes worse. Finally, the CDS market plays a more important role for price discovery than the corporate bond market

Soft information matters in SME lending

Loan data from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has shown that such positive attributes as good management skills and character – so-called ‘soft’ facts – can improve a borrower’s bargaining power with their bank and thus loan terms

Bargaining power and information in SME lending

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are informationally opaque and bank dependent. In SME lending, banks largely rely on soft information, because the scale and scope of hard information are limited. We analyze whether and how hard and soft information affects the borrower's bargaining power vis-à-vis its bank. We use the fact that, for a given credit rating, certain borrowers obtain better loan terms than others to define measures of relative bargaining power. Using SME loan data from the USA and Germany, we find that more favorable soft information (management skills and character) increases borrower bargaining power. We also show that more favorable soft than hard information improves borrower bargaining power. The results are not driven by manipulation or statistical limitations of the credit ratings. Our study suggests that soft information represents an important and direct determinant of borrower bargaining power, affecting the outcomes of the loan contracting process

Loan Growth and Riskiness of Banks

We investigate whether loan growth affects the riskiness of banks in 14 major western countries under "regular conditions". Using Bankscope data from more than 10,000 individual banks during 1997-2005, we test three hypotheses on the relation between past loan growth and loan losses, bank profitability, and bank solvency. Our empirical evidence supports the view that loan growth leads to a peak in loan loss provisions three years later, to a decrease in relative interest income, and to lower capital ratios. Further analyses reveal that loan growth also has a negative impact on risk-adjusted interest income. These results suggest that loan growth represents an important driver of bank risk

The Role of Banks in SME Finance

__Abstract__ Banks play a crucial role for the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs represent a large fraction of all firms in many economies and contribute significantly to employment and growth. But, SMEs are more informationally opaque, more risky, more financially constrained, and more bank-dependent than large firms, which creates serious challenges in SME finance. In this inaugural address, I focus on lending technologies to cope with key challenges in SME finance. I present evidence from two recent empirical studies. The first conclusion is that relationship lending works. Applying meta-analysis in a cross-country context, we show that, on average, borrowers benefit from relationship lending. SMEs obtain more credit and/or lower loan rates under relationship lending. Furthermore, bank competition makes benefits for borrowers more likely. The second conclusion is that trade credit has limited scope to replace bank debt when the latter is subject to a shock. SMEs in Europe have countered a shock to their bank debt to some extent with trade credit. However, substitution has become increasingly difficult during the financial crisis and was only possible for a subset of firms: the ones with better credit quality and intermediate financial constraints. Overall, a comprehensive understanding of lending technologies such as relationship lending and trade credit is critical for lenders, borrowers, and policymakers to ensure the proper functioning of SME finance