Loan Growth and Riskiness of Banks

Abstract

We investigate whether loan growth affects the riskiness of banks in 14 major western countries under "regular conditions". Using Bankscope data from more than 10,000 individual banks during 1997-2005, we test three hypotheses on the relation between past loan growth and loan losses, bank profitability, and bank solvency. Our empirical evidence supports the view that loan growth leads to a peak in loan loss provisions three years later, to a decrease in relative interest income, and to lower capital ratios. Further analyses reveal that loan growth also has a negative impact on risk-adjusted interest income. These results suggest that loan growth represents an important driver of bank risk