Restrictions on pesticides and deliberate self-poisoning in Sri Lanka

Importance Deliberate self-poisoning using pesticides as a means of suicide is an important public health problem in low- and middle-income countries. Three highly toxic pesticides—dimethoate, fenthion, and paraquat—were removed from the market in Sri Lanka between 2008 and 2011. In 2015, less toxic pesticides (chlorpyrifos, glyphosate, carbofuran, and carbaryl) were restricted. Subsequent outcomes have not been well described.Objective To explore the association of pesticide bans with pesticide self-poisonings and in-hospital deaths.Design, Setting, and Participants In this cross-sectional study with an interrupted time series design, data were prospectively collected on all patients with deliberate self-poisonings presenting to 10 Sri Lankan hospitals between March 31, 2002, and December 31, 2019, and analyzed by aggregated types of poisoning. The correlates of pesticide bans were estimated within the pesticide group and on self-poisonings within other substance groups. The data analysis was performed between April 1, 2002, and December 31, 2019.Exposures Implementation of 2 sets of pesticide bans.Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes were changes in hospital presentations and in-hospital deaths related to pesticide self-poisoning as measured using segmented Poisson regression.Results A total of 79 780 patients (median [IQR] age, 24 [18-34] years; 50.1% male) with self-poisoning from all causes were admitted to the study hospitals, with 29 389 poisonings (36.8%) due to pesticides. A total of 2859 patients died, 2084 (72.9%) of whom had ingested a pesticide. The first restrictions that targeted acutely toxic, highly hazardous pesticides were associated with an abrupt and sustained decline of the proportion of poisonings with pesticides (rate ratio [RR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.92) over the study period and increases in poisonings with medications (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21) and household and industrial chemicals (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05-1.36). The overall case fatality of pesticides significantly decreased (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.26-0.42) following the implementation of the 2008 to 2011 restrictions of highly hazardous pesticides. Following the 2015 restrictions of low-toxicity pesticides, hospitalizations were unchanged, and the number of deaths increased (RR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.39-2.83).Conclusions and Relevance These findings support the restriction of acutely toxic pesticides in resource-poor countries to help reduce hospitalization for and deaths from deliberate self-poisonings and caution against arbitrary bans of less toxic pesticides while more toxic pesticides remain available

Alcohol-related suicide across Australia : a geospatial analysis

Background: The acute effects of alcohol consumption are a major risk factor for suicide. Positive blood alcohol concentrations are present in almost one-third of all suicides at time of death. These suicides are defined as alcohol-related suicides. This cross-sectional study examines the geospatial distribution/clustering of high proportions of alcohol-related suicides and reports on socioeconomic and demographic risk factors. Methods: National Coronial Information System (NCIS) data were used to calculate proportions of suicides with alcohol present at the time of death for each level 3 statistical areas (SA3) in Australia. A density analysis and hotspot cluster analysis were used to visualise and establish statistically significant clustering of areas with higher (hotspots) and lower (coldspots) proportions. Subsequently, socioeconomic and demographic risk factors for alcohol use and suicide were reported on for hot and cold spots. Results: Significant clustering of areas with higher proportions of alcohol-related suicide occurred in northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, as well as inland New South Wales and inland Queensland. Clustering of SA3s with significantly lower proportions occurred in major city and inner regional Sydney and Melbourne. Conclusion and implications for public health: Results from this study identify areas in which prevention strategies should target alcohol use and can be used to inform prevention strategy design. Additionally, hotspots and coldspots identified in this study can be used for further analysis to better understand contextual risk factors for alcohol-related suicide

Multiple imputation and access to likelihood based tools in missing data problems

Multiple imputation and maximum likelihood estimation (via the expectation- maximization algorithm) are two well-known methods readily used for analyzing data with missing values. While these two methods are often considered as being distinct from one another, multiple imputation (when using improper imputation) is actually equivalent to a stochastic expectation-maximization approximation to the likelihood. In this thesis we show how these two methods are equivalent, and further, exploit this result to show that familiar likelihood-based approaches can be used to enhance multiple imputation’s performance in: (1) model selection, where familiar Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) can be used to choose the imputation model that best fits the observed data; (2) hypothesis testing, where the familiar likelihood-ratio statistic can be used to perform composite hypothesis testing with multiple imputed data; (3) measurement error modelling, where familiar functional methods, such as Simulation-extrapolation and Corrected score, can be used to account for measurement error with multiple imputed data. We verify these results empirically and demonstrate the use of the methods on several classical missing data examples

Risk factors for indicators of opioid-related harms amongst people living with chronic non-cancer pain: Findings from a 5-year prospective cohort study

2020 The Authors Background: The literature suggests patient characteristics and higher opioid doses and long-term duration are associated with problematic opioid behaviours but no one study has examined the role of all these factors simultaneously in a long-term prospective cohort study. Methods: Five-year, community-based, prospective cohort of people prescribed opioids for chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP). Logistic mixed effect models with multiple imputation were used to address missing data. Oral morphine equivalent (OME) mg per day was categorised as: 0 mg OME/day, 1-49 mg OME/day (reference), 50-89 mg OME/day, 90-199 mg OME/day and 200mg+ OME/day. Patient risk factors included: age, gender, substance use, mental health history and pain-related factors. Main outcomes included: Prescribed Opioids Difficulties Scale (PODS), Opioid-Related Behaviours In Treatment (ORBIT) scale, and ICD-10 opioid dependence. Multiple confounders for problematic opioid behaviours were assessed. Findings: Of 1,514 participants 44.4% were male (95%CI 41.9-46.9) and their mean age was 58 years (IQR 48-67). Participants had a mean duration of pain of 10 years (IQR 4.5-20.0) and had been taking strong opioids for a median of four years (IQR 1.0-10.0). At baseline, median OME/day was 73 (IQR 35-148). At 5-years, 85% were still taking strong opioids. PODS moderate-high scores reduced from 59.9% (95%CI 58.8-61.0) at baseline to 51.5% (95%CI 50.0-53.0) at 5-years. Around 9% met criteria for ICD-10 opioid dependence at each wave. In adjusted mixed effect models, the risk factors most consistently associated with problematic opioid use were: younger age, substance dependence, mental health histories and higher opioid doses. Interpretation: Both patient risk factors and opioid dose are associated with problematic opioid use behaviours

Hospital-treated intentional self-poisoning events and in-hospital mortality in Tehran before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Hospital-treated intentional self-poisoning is common. The possibility of changed (increased) suicidal behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic has been raised. To compare frequencies in self-poisoning events (SPEs) and the proportions with in-hospital mortality, in the year prior to and following the official onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a population of hospital-treated self-poisoning patients in Iran. All self-poisoned patients admitted to Loghman-Hakim Hospital, a clinical toxicology specialty hospital in Tehran, were included. The frequency of SPEs was compared between the one-year periods immediately before and after the onset of COVID-19 pandemic using Poisson regression. Differences in proportions of in-hospital mortality were also compared using logistic regression. A total of 14,478 patients with 15,391 SPEs (8,863 [61.2%] females) were evaluated in the study. There was no difference in the overall frequency of SPEs (relative risk [RR] of 0.99 [CI95% 0.96–1.03]), but a small increase in males (RR 1.07; 1.02–1.13) and a minor decrease in females (RR 0.95; 0.91–0.99). In total, 330 patients died (2.3% of all SPEs). There was no difference in overall in-hospital mortality odds ratio (OR: 0.98 [0.79–1.22]), in females (OR = 1.14 [0.80–1.60]) or males (OR = 0.92 [0.69–1.23]). There was no change in the frequency of SPEs and no difference in the in-hospital mortality proportions, suggesting that the COVID-19 pandemic had little or no effect on these aspects of suicidal behavior in Iran

Risk factors for indicators of opioid-related harms amongst people living with chronic non-cancer pain: Findings from a 5-year prospective cohort study

Background: The literature suggests patient characteristics and higher opioid doses and long-term duration are associated with problematic opioid behaviours but no one study has examined the role of all these factors simultaneously in a long-term prospective cohort study. Methods: Five-year, community-based, prospective cohort of people prescribed opioids for chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP). Logistic mixed effect models with multiple imputation were used to address missing data. Oral morphine equivalent (OME) mg per day was categorised as: 0 mg OME/day, 1–49 mg OME/day (reference), 50–89 mg OME/day, 90–199 mg OME/day and 200mg+ OME/day. Patient risk factors included: age, gender, substance use, mental health history and pain-related factors. Main outcomes included: Prescribed Opioids Difficulties Scale (PODS), Opioid-Related Behaviours In Treatment (ORBIT) scale, and ICD-10 opioid dependence. Multiple confounders for problematic opioid behaviours were assessed. Findings: Of 1,514 participants 44.4% were male (95%CI 41.9–46.9) and their mean age was 58 years (IQR 48–67). Participants had a mean duration of pain of 10 years (IQR 4.5–20.0) and had been taking strong opioids for a median of four years (IQR 1.0–10.0). At baseline, median OME/day was 73 (IQR 35–148). At 5-years, 85% were still taking strong opioids. PODS moderate-high scores reduced from 59.9% (95%CI 58.8–61.0) at baseline to 51.5% (95%CI 50.0–53.0) at 5-years. Around 9% met criteria for ICD-10 opioid dependence at each wave. In adjusted mixed effect models, the risk factors most consistently associated with problematic opioid use were: younger age, substance dependence, mental health histories and higher opioid doses. Interpretation: Both patient risk factors and opioid dose are associated with problematic opioid use behaviours