Competitive Structure of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in World Wheat Market: Gravity Model Approach

Due to an increase in export shares of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (KRU) the competition in global wheat market has become more intense during the last decade. Hence, this study aims to analyze the market structure of KRU over the period 2004-2010. By using the gravity trade model and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation method, this study confirms that the emergence of KRU increases the competition in international wheat market. The other main finding is that there is no evidence of market power of KRU wheat exporters over the South Caucasian and Central Asian countries

Estimating the Trade Duration of Kazakhstan’s Wheat Exports

The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models explicitly testing for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. The results imply that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depend on the market share of Russian wheat exports, abolishing restrictive export policies, and maintaining good trade relationships with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies

Determinants of Trade Duration of Kazakhstan's Wheat Exports

The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. We find that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depends on maintaining good trade relationships and free of export restrictions with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies