Unemployed in Germany: Factors Influencing the Risk of Losing the Job

Westerheide N, Kauermann G. Unemployed in Germany: Factors Influencing the Risk of Losing the Job. Research in World Economy. 2014;5(2):43-55.Unemployment is a central issue in modern economies and its analysis and investigation consists of two aspects. First, what is the risk of getting unemployed based on economic, local and individual characteristics and second, what is the chance of getting reemployed. In this paper we focus on the first question by making use of the massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency (IABS Scientific Use File ‘Regional File 1975 – 2004’) to model the risk of an individual to become unemployed between 2000 and 2004 in Germany. As individual covariates we include gender, age and education as fixed effects in our model. Beside these individual characteristics, regional as well as calendrical and economic information is considered and included as smooth functional effects in the model. As result of our data analysis we uncover strong educational and age specific effects as well as dominating calendrical and spatial effects on the individual's risk of getting unemployed

Adaptive servoventilation improves cardiac function and respiratory stability

Cheyne–Stokes respiration (CSR) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) is of major prognostic impact and expresses respiratory instability. Other parameters are daytime pCO2, VE/VCO2-slope during exercise, exertional oscillatory ventilation (EOV), and increased sensitivity of central CO2 receptors. Adaptive servoventilation (ASV) was introduced to specifically treat CSR in CHF. Aim of this study was to investigate ASV effects on CSR, cardiac function, and respiratory stability. A total of 105 patients with CHF (NYHA ≥ II, left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 40%) and CSR (apnoea–hypopnoea index ≥ 15/h) met inclusion criteria. According to adherence to ASV treatment (follow-up of 6.7 ± 3.2 months) this group was divided into controls (rejection of ASV treatment or usage <50% of nights possible and/or <4 h/night; n = 59) and ASV (n = 56) adhered patients. In the ASV group, ventilator therapy was able to effectively treat CSR. In contrast to controls, NYHA class, EF, oxygen uptake, 6-min walking distance, and NT-proBNP improved significantly. Moreover, exclusively in these patients pCO2, VE/VCO2-slope during exercise, EOV, and central CO2 receptor sensitivity improved. In CHF patients with CSR, ASV might be able to improve parameters of SDB, cardiac function, and respiratory stability

Penalized splines - estimation with longitudinal unemployment data : analyses of unemployment durations and unemployment risks in Germany

Westerheide N. Penalized splines - estimation with longitudinal unemployment data : analyses of unemployment durations and unemployment risks in Germany. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University; 2012

To move or not to move to find a new job: spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects

Kauermann G, Westerheide N. To move or not to move to find a new job: spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects. Journal of Applied Statistics. 2012;39(5):995-1009.The aim of this paper is to show the flexibility and capacity of penalized spline smoothing as estimation routine for modelling duration time data. We analyse the unemployment behaviour in Germany between 2000 and 2004 using a massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency. To investigate dynamic covariate effects and differences between competing job markets depending on the distance between former and recent working place, a functional duration time model with competing risks is used. It is build upon a competing hazard function where some of the smooth covariate effects are allowed to vary with unemployment duration. The focus of our analysis is on contrasting the spatial, economic and individual covariate effects of the competing job markets and on analysing their general influence on the unemployed's re-employment probabilities. As a result of our analyses, we reveal differences concerning gender, age and education. We also discover an effect between the newly formed and the old West German states. Moreover, the spatial pattern between the considered job markets differs

Unemployed in Germany: Factors Influencing the Risk of Losing the Job

Westerheide N, Kauermann G. Unemployed in Germany: Factors Influencing the Risk of Losing the Job. Research in World Economy. 2014;5(2):43-55.Unemployment is a central issue in modern economies and its analysis and investigation consists of two aspects. First, what is the risk of getting unemployed based on economic, local and individual characteristics and second, what is the chance of getting reemployed. In this paper we focus on the first question by making use of the massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency (IABS Scientific Use File ‘Regional File 1975 – 2004’) to model the risk of an individual to become unemployed between 2000 and 2004 in Germany. As individual covariates we include gender, age and education as fixed effects in our model. Beside these individual characteristics, regional as well as calendrical and economic information is considered and included as smooth functional effects in the model. As result of our data analysis we uncover strong educational and age specific effects as well as dominating calendrical and spatial effects on the individual's risk of getting unemployed

Flexible Modelling of Duration of Unemployment Using Functional Hazard Models and Penalized Splines: A Case Study Comparing Germany and the UK

Westerheide N, Kauermann G. Flexible Modelling of Duration of Unemployment Using Functional Hazard Models and Penalized Splines: A Case Study Comparing Germany and the UK. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. 2012;16(1): 5.The intention of this paper is to demonstrate the flexibility and capacity of penalized spline smoothing as estimation routine for modelling duration time data. We investigate the unemployment behaviour in Germany and the UK between 1995 and 2005 based on data from national panel studies. Functional duration time models are used to investigate the dynamics of covariate effects. The focus of our analysis is on contrasting the two economies. The statistical model being employed is built upon the hazard function, where we allow all covariate effects to vary smoothly with time. As result of the analyses, we demonstrate that the most striking difference between the countries is that elderly unemployed in Germany have decreasing chances for reemployment compared to the UK

Flexible Modelling of Duration of Unemployment Using Functional Hazard Models and Penalized Splines: A Case Study Comparing Germany and the UK

The intention of this paper is to demonstrate the flexibility and capacity of penalized spline smoothing as estimation routine for modelling duration time data. We investigate the unemployment behaviour in Germany and the UK between 1995 and 2005 based on data from national panel studies. Functional duration time models are used to investigate the dynamics of covariate effects. The focus of our analysis is on contrasting the two economies. The statistical model being employed is built upon the hazard function, where we allow all covariate effects to vary smoothly with time. As result of the analyses, we demonstrate that the most striking difference between the countries is that elderly unemployed in Germany have decreasing chances for reemployment compared to the UK.

Symptoms of sleep apnoea in chronic heart failure-results from a prospective cohort study in 1,500 patients

Bitter T, Westerheide N, Hossain SM, Prinz C, Horstkotte D, Oldenburg O. Symptoms of sleep apnoea in chronic heart failure-results from a prospective cohort study in 1,500 patients. Sleep And Breathing. 2012;16(3):781-791.In patients with chronic heart failure, sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is a common co-morbidity worsening prognosis. The aim of this study was to investigate whether assessment of specific symptoms can elucidate presence of SDB in these patients. A prospective questionnaire scoring investigation on possible symptoms of sleep apnoea (nocturia, fatigue, daytime sleepiness, snoring, nocturnal sweating, witnessed apnoea's, nap) was conducted in 1,506 consecutive patients with stable chronic heart failure (LVEF a parts per thousand currency sign45%, NYHA a parts per thousand yen2). Afterwards, polysomnography or polygraphy, capillary blood gas analysis, echocardiography, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing were performed. Adjusted for all significant covariates, snoring (p < 0.01) was the only symptom independently associated with OSA, while witnessed apnoeas (p = 0.02) and fatigue (p = 0.03) independently predicted for CSR. As additional parameters, higher BMI (threshold 26.6; p < 0.01) and higher pCO(2) (threshold 37.6 mmHg; p < 0.01) were independently associated with OSA and male gender (p < 0.001) and lower pCO(2) (threshold 35.0 mmHg; p < 0.001) with CSA. Cumulative questionnaire score results did not sufficiently (OSA-sensitivity 0.40, specificity 0.74; CSA-sensitivity 0.57, specificity 0.59) predict SDB. Although in chronic heart failure patients with either OSA or CSA specific symptoms are apparent, combining clinical data, demographic data, and capillary blood gas analysis results appears favourable to determine the presence of SDB

Hypotensive effects of positive airway pressure ventilation in heart failure patients with sleep-disordered breathing

Oldenburg O, Bartsch S, Bitter T, et al. Hypotensive effects of positive airway pressure ventilation in heart failure patients with sleep-disordered breathing. Sleep And Breathing. 2012;16(3):753-757.Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) as well as central sleep apnoea (CSA) are highly prevalent in heart failure (HF) patients. Positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy is usually intended to treat OSA and CSA. The aim of the present study was to investigate immediate hemodynamic effects of PAP therapy in these patients. In 61 consecutive HF patients (NYHA a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand II, EF a parts per thousand currency signaEuro parts per thousand 45%) with moderate to severe OSA or CSA (AHI a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 15/h) blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) response to PAP therapy initiation was investigated during mask fitting with patients being awake and in supine position. While applying an endexspiratory pressure of 5.8 +/- 0.9 cm H2O, there was a significant decrease in systolic (-8.9 +/- 12.1 mmHg, p < 0.001) and diastolic BP (-5.1 +/- 9.2 mmHg, p < 0.001) without a change in HR (p = n.s.). At least a transient drop in mean arterial pressure a parts per thousand currency sign70 mmHg was seen in 10% of these patients. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant impact of baseline BP on potential BP drops: lower baseline BP was associated with BP drops. PAP therapy may cause unexpected hypotension especially in patients with low baseline BP as seen in HF patients treated according to current guidelines. Whether these hypotensive effects sustain, cause any harm to the patients and/or is responsible for non-acceptance or non-adherence of PAP therapy needs to be determined