Competitive reactions and the cross-sales effects of advertising and promotion.

Abstract: How do competitors react to each other's price-promotion and advertising actions? How do these reactions influence the net sales impact we observe? We answer these questions by performing a large-scale empirical study of the short-run and long-run reactions to promotion and advertising shocks in over 400 consumer product categories, over a four-year time span.Competitive reaction can be passive, accommodating or retaliatory. We first develop a series of expectations on the type and intensity of reaction behavior, and on the moderators of this behavior. These expectations are assessed in two ways. First, vector-autoregressive models quantify the short-run and long-run effect of a promotion or advertising action on competitive sales and on competitive reactions. By cataloging the numerical results, we are able to formulate empirical generalizations of reaction behavior ('how do they react?'). Second, we estimate structural models of reaction intensity, in function of various market and competitive characteristics ('what are the drivers of reaction?'). Finally, by comparing our findings on reaction behavior with those on promotion and advertising effectiveness, we are able to evaluate competitive reaction behavior ('are they reacting as they should?').A major finding is that competitive reaction is predominantly passive. When it is present, it is usually retaliatory in the same instrument, but accommodating or retaliatory in a different instrument. There are very few long-run consequences of any type of reaction behavior. We also report on several moderating effects that are in line with expectations, and that support the presence of a certain amount of rationality in competitive reaction behavior.The net impact of the over-time effects of advertising and price-promotion attacks, competitive reactions and the sales effectiveness of each, is that competitors' sales are generally not affected, and especially not in the long run. We weigh the evidence that this sales neutrality is 'natural' (i.e., due to the nature of consumer response) versus 'managed' (i.e., due to the vigilance and effectiveness of competitors), and conclude in favor of the former.

Measuring Short- and Long-run Promotional Effectiveness on Scanner Data Using Persistence Modeling

The use of price promotions to stimulate brand and firm performance is increasing. We discuss how (i) the availability of longer scanner data time series, and (ii) persistence modeling, have lead to greater insights into the dynamic effects of price promotions, as one can now quantify their immediate, short-run, and long-run effectiveness. We review recent methodological developments, and illustrate how the analysis of numerous brands and product categories has resulted in various empirical generalizations. Finally, we argue that persistence modeling should not only be applied to traditional performance metrics such as sales, but also to metrics such as firm value and customer equity

Competitive Reactions and the Cross-Sales Effects of Advertising and Promotion

How do competitors react to each other's price-promotion and advertising actions? How do these reactions influence the net sales impact we observe? We answer these questions by performing a large-scale empirical study of the short-run and long-run reactions to promotion and advertising shocks in over 400 consumer product categories, over a four-year time span. Competitive reaction can be passive, accommodating or retaliatory. We first develop a series of expectations on the type and intensity of reaction behavior, and on the moderators of this behavior. These expectations are assessed in two ways. First, vector-autoregressive models quantify the short-run and long-run effect of a promotion or advertising action on competitive sales and on competitive reactions. By cataloging the numerical results, we are able to formulate empirical generalizations of reaction behavior ("how do they react?"). Second, we estimate structural models of reaction intensity, in function of various market and competitive characteristics ("what are the drivers of reaction?"). Finally, by comparing our findings on reaction behavior with those on promotion and advertising effectiveness, we are able to evaluate competitive reaction behavior ("are they reacting as they should?"). A major finding is that competitive reaction is predominantly passive. When it is present, it is usually retaliatory in the same instrument, but accommodating or retaliatory in a different instrument. There are very few long-run consequences of any type of reaction behavior. We also report on several moderating effects that are in line with expectations, and that support the presence of a certain amount of rationality in competitive reaction behavior. The net impact of the over-time effects of advertising and price-promotion attacks, competitive reactions and the sales effectiveness of each, is that competitors' sales are generally not affected, and especially not in the long run. We weigh the evidence that this sales neutrality is "natural" (i.e., due to the nature of consumer response) versus "managed" (i.e., due to the vigilance and effectiveness of competitors), and conclude in favor of the former

Competitive reactions and the cross-sales effects of advertising and promotion

Abstract: How do competitors react to each other's price-promotion and advertising actions? How do these reactions influence the net sales impact we observe? We answer these questions by performing a large-scale empirical study of the short-run and long-run reactions to promotion and advertising shocks in over 400 consumer product categories, over a four-year time span.Competitive reaction can be passive, accommodating or retaliatory. We first develop a series of expectations on the type and intensity of reaction behavior, and on the moderators of this behavior. These expectations are assessed in two ways. First, vector-autoregressive models quantify the short-run and long-run effect of a promotion or advertising action on competitive sales and on competitive reactions. By cataloging the numerical results, we are able to formulate empirical generalizations of reaction behavior ('how do they react?'). Second, we estimate structural models of reaction intensity, in function of various market and competitive characteristics ('what are the drivers of reaction?'). Finally, by comparing our findings on reaction behavior with those on promotion and advertising effectiveness, we are able to evaluate competitive reaction behavior ('are they reacting as they should?').A major finding is that competitive reaction is predominantly passive. When it is present, it is usually retaliatory in the same instrument, but accommodating or retaliatory in a different instrument. There are very few long-run consequences of any type of reaction behavior. We also report on several moderating effects that are in line with expectations, and that support the presence of a certain amount of rationality in competitive reaction behavior.The net impact of the over-time effects of advertising and price-promotion attacks, competitive reactions and the sales effectiveness of each, is that competitors' sales are generally not affected, and especially not in the long run. We weigh the evidence that this sales neutrality is 'natural' (i.e., due to the nature of consumer response) versus 'managed' (i.e., due to the vigilance and effectiveness of competitors), and conclude in favor of the former.status: publishe

Rejoinder for - Measuring short- and long-run promotional effectiveness on scanner data using persistence modelling. Comment by J.-B. Kamieczak

The over-time impact of a marginal price promotion was studied. When the brand's price is suddenly cut as part of a repositioning envisioned by the brand's new management, two opposing forces will be at work that determine the ultimate impact of the price reduction. There is a difference between a price-promotional elasticity and an elasticity to regular price changes. The shock content of both the up- and downward price movements will gradually diminish, and any asymmetric effects, if present, will diminish over time.status: publishe

The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions

Although price promotions have increased in both commercial use and quantity of academic research over the last decade, most of the attention has been focused on their effects on brand choice and brand sales. By contrast, little is known about the conditions under which price promotions expand short-run and long-run category demand, even though the benefits of category expansion can be substantial to manufacturers and retailers alike. This paper studies the category-demand effects of consumer price promotions across 560 consumer product categories over a 4-year period. The data describe national sales in Dutch supermarkets and cover virtually the entire marketing mix, i.e., prices, promotions, advertising, distribution, and new-product activity. We focus on the estimation of main effects (i.e., the dynamic category expansive impact of price promotions) as well as the moderating effects of marketing intensity and competition (both conduct and structure) on short- and long-run promotional effectiveness. The research design uses modern multivariate time-series analysis to disentangle short-run and long-run effects. First, we conduct a series of unit-root tests to determine whether or not category demand is stationary or evolving over time. The results are incorporated in the specification of vector-autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX models). The impulse-response functions derived from these VARX models provide estimates of the short- and long-term effects of price promotions on category demand. These estimates, in turn, are used as dependent variables in a series of second-stage regressions that assess the explanatory power of marketing intensity and competition. Several model validation tests support the robustness of the empirical findings. We present our results in the form of empirical generalizations on the main effects of price promotions on category demand in the short and the long run and through statistical tests on how these effects change with marketing intensity and competition. The findings generate an overall picture of the power and limitations of consumer price promotions in expanding category demand, as follows. Category demand is found to be predominantly stationary, either around a fixed mean or a deterministic trend. Although the total net short-term effects of price promotions are generally strong, with an average elasticity of 2.21 and a more conservative median elasticity of 1.75, they rarely exhibit persistent effects. Instead, the effects dissipate over a time period lasting approximately 10 weeks on average, and their long-term impact is essentially zero. By contrast, the successful introduction of new products into a category is more frequently associated with a permanent category-demand increase. Several moderating effects on price-promotion effectiveness exist. More frequent promotions increase their effectiveness, but only in the short run. The use of nonprice advertising reduces the category-demand effects of price promotions, both in the short run and in the long run. Competitive structure matters as well: The less oligopolistic the category, the smaller the short-run effectiveness of price promotions. At the same time, we find that the dominant form of competitive reaction, either in price promotion or in advertising, is no reaction. Short-run category-demand effectiveness of price promotions is lower in categories experiencing major new-product introductions. Finally, both the short- and long-run price promotion effectiveness is higher in perishable product categories. The paper discusses several managerial implications of these empirical findings and suggests various avenues for future research. Overall, we conclude that the power of price promotions lies primarily in the preservation of the status quo in the category.Category Demand, Empirical Generalizations, Long-Term Promotion Effects, Competitive Strategy, Marketing Mix, Econometric Models, Time-Series Analysis

Understanding the timing and magnitude of advertising spending patterns

Notwithstanding the fact that advertising is one of the most used marketing tools, little is known about what is driving (i) the timing and (ii) the magnitude of advertising actions. Building on normative theory, the authors develop a parsimonious model that captures this dual investment process. They explain advertising spending patterns as observed in the market, and investigate the impact of company, competitive, and category-related factors on these decisions, thereby introducing the novel concept of Ad-sensor. Analyses are based on a unique combination of (i) weekly advertising data on 748 CPG brands in 129 product categories in the UK, (ii) household panel purchase data, and (iii) data on new product introductions. The analyzed brands include both large and small brands, both frequent and infrequent advertisers, thus providing a more complete and correct overview of the market. The results show that advertising spending patterns can be explained as real-life applications of the normative literature, in which advertising and advertising goodwill management are embedded in dynamic (s,S) inventory systems. Adstock and Ad-sensor show a positive effect on both timing and magnitude decision. Competitive reasoning is found to have little to no effect on advertising decisions, whereas category-related factors do show an impact. The extent to which campaigning strategies are more or less the outcome of advertising goodwill management systems, however, varies across brands as a function of their relative size and advertising frequency.status: publishe