Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?

In this paper we ask a question about the impact of monetary policy on total bank lending in the presence of a developed market for foreign currency denominated loans and potential substitutability between domestic and foreign currency loans. Our results, based on a panel of three biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) confirm the existence of the substitution effect between these loans. Restrictive monetary policy leads to a decrease in domestic currency lending but simultaneously accelerates foreign currency denominated loans. This makes the central bank's job harder with respect to providing both, monetary and financial stability

Reakcja polityki pieniężnej na wybuch pandemii COVID-19 w krajach stosujących strategię celu inflacyjnego

The monetary policy response to COVID-19 in various economies around the world was in many ways exceptional. This paper investigates several aspects of this response among 28 inflation targeters by looking at actions undertaken by selected monetary authorities at the outset of the pandemic-induced crisis. Evidently, the reviewed central banks assessed the pandemic to be a clear-cut case for loosening monetary policy. They promptly announced expansionary decisions, often at extraordinary meetings, using a possibly broad set of measures, with not much hesitation before reaching for unconventional ones. One of the key aspects of the response was how quickly the authorities reacted to the shock. It turned out that, on average, advanced economies announced their initial policy actions within a month, whereas emerging market economies were twice as fast. As shown by a simple econometric exercise, this difference can to a great extent be explained by the time when the first COVID-19 cases were recorded in a country, the stringency of the adopted pandemic restrictions, and the need for liquidity provisions in economies with less deep financial systems. Of relevance were also variables related to having room for manoeuvre with respect to nonstandard measures and the deviation of inflation from the target.Reakcja polityki pieniężnej na wybuch pandemii COVID-19 była pod wieloma względami wyjątkowa. Niniejszy artykuł bada kilka aspektów tej wyjątkowości wśród 28 banków centralnych stosujących strategię celu inflacyjnego, biorąc pod uwagę działania podejmowane przez wybrane władze monetarne na początku kryzysu związanego z pandemią. Analizowane banki centralne jednoznacznie uznały, że pandemia wymaga wyraźnego złagodzenia warunków monetarnych, co zaowocowało szybkim ogłoszeniem decyzji zwiększających ekspansywność polityki pieniężnej, podejmowanych często na nadzwyczajnych posiedzeniach i wykorzystujących możliwie szeroki zestaw instrumentów – bez nadmiernego wahania co do zastosowania również narzędzi niestandardowych. Jednym z kluczowych aspektów odpowiedzi banków centralnych na kryzys była również szybkość reakcji na szok. Okazało się, że średnio w gospodarkach rozwiniętych pierwsze decyzje łagodzące politykę pieniężną ogłoszono w ciągu miesiąca od wybuchu pandemii, podczas gdy w gospodarkach rozwijających się reakcja była dwukrotnie szybsza. Jak pokazało proste ćwiczenie ekonometryczne, różnica ta może być jednak w dużym stopniu wyjaśniona przez moment wykrycia pierwszych przypadków COVID-19 w danym kraju, rygorystycznością przyjętych ograniczeń antypandemicznych oraz potrzebą wsparcia płynnościowego gospodarek z mniej głębokim systemem finansowym. Znaczenie miały także zmienne dotyczące przestrzeni do wykorzystania niekonwencyjnych działań oraz odchylenie inflacji od celu inflacyjnego

Inflation Targets - What Factors Can Help to Explain Their Levels

Inflation targeting is nowadays used by around 40 countries, with each of them tailoring some features of the strategy to its own needs. This holds especially for deciding on the level of inflation targets. The analysis conducted in the paper aims at identifying factors affecting the choice of the target levels, with macroeconomic, structural and institutional characteristics of the reviewed economies being investigated. The main conclusion is that both backward- and forward-looking models can help to explain how inflation targets are set. Evidently inflation and GDP growth (past and forecast) together with information on a possibly ongoing disinflation process are of key importance, but – especially for emerging market economies – also inflation variance and the level of economic development seem to influence the target levels. Moreover, many of the institutional features related, among others, to transparency and accountability of the reviewed central banks, were found significant in the analysis

Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?

In this paper we ask a question about the impact of monetary policy on total bank lending in the presence of a developed market for foreign currency denominated loans and potential substitutability between domestic and foreign currency loans. Our results, based on a panel of three biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) confirm the existence of the substitution effect between these loans. Restrictive monetary policy leads to a decrease in domestic currency lending but simultaneously accelerates foreign currency denominated loans. This makes the central bank's job harder with respect to providing both, monetary and financial stability.domestic and foreign currency loans, substitution, monetary policy, financial stability, Central Europe