Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?

Abstract

In this paper we ask a question about the impact of monetary policy on total bank lending in the presence of a developed market for foreign currency denominated loans and potential substitutability between domestic and foreign currency loans. Our results, based on a panel of three biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) confirm the existence of the substitution effect between these loans. Restrictive monetary policy leads to a decrease in domestic currency lending but simultaneously accelerates foreign currency denominated loans. This makes the central bank's job harder with respect to providing both, monetary and financial stability