The epidemiological impact of an HIV vaccine on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Southern India

The potential epidemiological impact of preventive HIV vaccines on the HIV epidemic in Southern India is examined using a mathematical deterministic dynamic compartmental model. Various assumptions about the degree of protection offered by such a vaccine, the extent of immunological response of those vaccinated, and the duration of protection afforded are explored. Alternative targeting strategies for HIV vaccination are simulated and compared with the impact of conventional prevention interventions in high-risk groups and the general population. The impact of disinhibition (increased risk behavior due to the presence of a vaccine) is also considered. Vaccines that convey a high degree of protection in a share of or all of those immunized and that convey life-long immunity are the most effective in curbing the HIV epidemic. Vaccines that convey less than complete protection may also have substantial public health impact, but disinhibition can easily undo their effects and they should be used combined with conventional prevention efforts. Conventional interventions that target commercial sex workers and their clients to increase condom use can also be highly effective and can be implemented immediately, before the arrival of vaccines.Poverty and Health,Disease Control&Prevention,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Public Health Promotion,HIV AIDS,HIV AIDS,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Adolescent Health,HIV AIDS and Business,Health Service Management and Delivery

Combining evidence for association from transmission disequilibrium and case-control studies using single-nucleotide polymorphisms

The aim of the present analysis is to combine evidence for association from the two most commonly used designs in genetic association analysis, the case-control design and the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) design. The cases here are affected offspring from nuclear families and are used in both the case-control and TDT designs. As a result, inference from these designs is not independent. We applied a simple logistic regression method for combining evidence for association from case-control and TDT designs to single-nucleotide polymorphism data purchased on a region on chromosome 3, replicate 1 of the Aipotu population. Combining the evidence from the case-control and TDT designs yielded a 5–10% reduction in the standard errors of the relative risk estimates. The authors did not know the results before the analyses were conducted

Tuberculosis and sexually transmitted infections

To the Editor: Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is a necessary, but not sufficient, cause of tuberculosis (TB). Infection with HIV is the strongest known risk factor for disease progression to TB. In the absence of HIV infection, disease develops in 5% to 15% of infected persons. Unfortunately, the process of progression to disease is poorly understood. We hypothesize that, in addition to HIV, another sexually transmitted infection (STI) also increases such disease progression. Identification of this STI might suggest new approaches to disease control.Several associations between the risk for TB and lifestyle factors have been identified. [...]<br/

Tuberculosis and sexually transmitted infections

To the Editor: Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is a necessary, but not sufficient, cause of tuberculosis (TB). Infection with HIV is the strongest known risk factor for disease progression to TB. In the absence of HIV infection, disease develops in 5% to 15% of infected persons. Unfortunately, the process of progression to disease is poorly understood. We hypothesize that, in addition to HIV, another sexually transmitted infection (STI) also increases such disease progression. Identification of this STI might suggest new approaches to disease control.Several associations between the risk for TB and lifestyle factors have been identified. [...]<br/

Association between HCV infection and diabetes type 2 in Egypt: Is it time to split up?

Purpose: There is a conflicting evidence about the association between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and diabetes mellitus. The objective of this study was to assess this association in Egypt, the country with the highest HCV prevalence in the world. Methods: The source of data was from the Egypt Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2008. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses to account for known confounders, the association was investigated at two levels']: (1) HCV exposure (HCV antibody status) and diabetes mellitus and (2) diabetes mellitus and chronic HCV infection (HCV RNA status) among HCV-exposed individuals. Results: We found no evidence for an association between HCV antibody status and diabetes (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-1.19). However, among HCV-exposed individuals, we found an evidence for an association between diabetes and active HCV infection (adjusted OR = 2.44, 95% CI, 1.30-4.57). Conclusions: Although it does not appear that HCV exposure and diabetes are linked, there might be an association between diabetes and chronic HCV infection. The HCV-diabetes relationship may be more complex than previously anticipated. Therefore, a call for an "amicable divorce" to the HCV-diabetes relationship could be premature

Trends and Predictors of Syphilis Prevalence in the General Population: Global Pooled Analyses of 1103 Prevalence Measures Including 136 Million Syphilis Tests.

Background: This study assessed levels, trends, and associations of observed syphilis prevalence in the general adult population using global pooled analyses. Methods: A standardized database of syphilis prevalence was compiled by pooling systematically gathered data. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted using data from the period 1990-2016 to estimate pooled measures and assess predictors and trends. Countries were classified by World Health Organization region. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: The database included 1103 prevalence measures from 136 million syphilis tests across 154 countries (85% from women in antenatal care). Global pooled mean prevalence (weighted by region population size) was 1.11% (95% confidence interval [CI], .99-1.22). Prevalence predictors were region, diagnostic assay, sample size, and calendar year interacting with region. Compared to the African Region, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was 0.42 (95% CI, .33-.54) for the Region of the Americas, 0.13 (95% CI, .09-.19) for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 0.05 (95% CI, .03-.07) for the European Region, 0.21 (95% CI, .16-.28) for the South-East Asia Region, and 0.41 (95% CI, .32-.53) for the Western Pacific Region. Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay (TPHA) only or rapid plasma reagin (RPR) only, compared with dual RPR/TPHA diagnosis, produced higher prevalence (AOR >1.26), as did smaller sample-size studies (2.16). Prevalence declined in all regions; the annual AORs ranged from 0.84 (95% CI, .79-.90) in the Eastern Mediterranean to 0.97 (95% CI, .97-1.01) in the Western Pacific. The pooled mean male-to-female prevalence ratio was 1.00 (95% CI, .89-1.13). Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of results. Conclusions: Syphilis prevalence has declined globally over the past 3 decades. Large differences in prevalence persist among regions, with the African Region consistently the most affected

HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemiological synergy: Misguided observational evidence? A modelling study

Objectives To investigate whether observational studies of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections have the capacity to assess the HIV/HSV-2 epidemiological synergy. Methods An individual-based Monte Carlo model was used to simulate HIV/HSV-2 epidemics in two scenarios: no HIV/HSV-2 biological interaction and HSV-2 seropositivity enhancing HIV acquisition. Cross-sectional observational studies were simulated by sampling individuals from the population to assess resulting crude and adjusted ORs of the HIV/HSV-2 association. Meta-analyses were conducted to estimate the pooled mean ORs. Impact of under-reporting of sexual behaviour and misc

Underreporting of meningococcal disease incidence in the Netherlands: results from a capture-recapture analysis based on three registration sources with correction for false positive diagnoses.

In order to come to a reliable evaluation of the effectiveness of the chosen vaccination policy regarding meningococcal disease, the completeness of registrations on meningococcal disease in the Netherlands was estimated with the capture-recapture method. Data over 1993-1998 were collected from (A) mandatory notifications (n = 2926); (B) hospital registration (n = 3968); (C) laboratory surveillance (n = 3484). As the standard capture-recapture method does not take into account false positive diagnoses, we developed a model to adjust for the lack of specificity of our sources. We estimated that 1363 cases were not registered in any of the three sources in the period of study. The completeness of the three sources was therefore estimated at 49% for source A, 67% for source B and 58% for source C. After adjustment for false positive diagnoses, the completeness of source A, B, and C was estimated as 52%, 70% and 62%, respectively. The capture-recapture methods offer an attractive approach to estimate the completeness of surveillance sources and hence contribute to a more accurate estimate of the disease burden under study. However, the method does not account for higher-order interactions or presence of false positive diagnoses. Being aware of these limitations, the capture-recapture method still elucidates the (in)completeness of sources and gives a rough estimate of this (in)completeness. This makes a more accurate monitoring of disease incidence possible and hence attributes to a more reliable foundation for the design and evaluation of health interventions such as vaccination programs