Comparison Between Simulated and Observational Results of Galaxy Formation for Large Scale Structures

The Millennium simulation is the largest numerical simulation of how minor fluctuations in the density of the universe’s dark matter distribution are amplified by gravity to develop into the large scale structures(LSS) and galaxy clusters seen today(Springel et al. 2005). Although the simulations have been compared with the astronomical observations of the local universe, the simulations have not been widely compared with high redshift, early universe observations. In our study we compare the simulation data(Wang et al. 2008; Guo et al. 2008(in preparation)) for the first time with observations from the COSMOS survey(Scoville et al. 2006). Three quantities are proposed to characterize the structures and the structures distribution, namely the percent area occupied by LSS at each redshift, the average area of LSS and the shapes as characterized by the square root of the area divided by the circumference. We calculate these quantities for both the observations and the simulations, and quantify discrepancies between the existing simulations and observations. In particular, the simulations exhibit earlier development of dense structures than is seen in the observational data

Characterizing Uncertainty in Air Pollution Damage Estimates

This study uses Monte Carlo methods to characterize the uncertainty associated with per-ton damage estimates for 100 power plants in the contiguous United States (U.S.) This analysis focuses on damage estimates produced by an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for emissions of two local air pollutants: sulfur dioxide (SO2) and .ne particulate matter (PM2:5). For each power plant, the Monte Carlo procedure yields an empirical distribution for the damage per ton of SO2 and PM2:5:For a power plant in New York, one ton of SO2 produces $5,160 in damages with a 90$1,000 and $14,090. A ton of PM2:5 emitted from the same facility causes$17,790 worth of damages with a 90% percentile interval of $3,780 and$47,930. Results for the sample of 100 fossil-fuel .red power plants shows a strong spatial pattern in the marginal damage distributions. The degree of variability increases by plant location from east to west. This result highlights the importance of capturing uncertainty in air quality modeling in the empirical marginal damage distributions. Further, by isolating uncertainty at each module in the IAM we .nd that uncertainty associated with the dose-response parameter, which captures the in.uence of exposure to PM2:5 on adult mortality rates, the mortality valuation parameter, and the air quality model exert the greatest in.uence on cumulative uncertainty. The paper also demonstrates how the marginal damage distributions may be used to guide regulators in the design of more efficient market-based air pollution policy in the U.S.Monte Carlo, Air Pollution, Market-based Pollution Policy

Sinusoidal Modeling Applied to Spatially Variant Tropospheric Ozone Air Pollution

This paper demonstrates how parsimonious models of sinusoidal functions can be used to fit spatially variant time series in which there is considerable variation of a periodic type. A typical shortcoming of such tools relates to the difficulty in capturing idiosyncratic variation in periodic models. The strategy developed here addresses this deficiency. While previous work has sought to overcome the shortcoming by augmenting sinusoids with other techniques, the present approach employs station-specific sinusoids to supplement a common regional component, which succeeds in capturing local idiosyncratic behavior in a parsimonious manner. The experiments conducted herein reveal that a semi-parametric approach enables such models to fit spatially varying time series with periodic behavior in a remarkably tight fashion. The methods are applied to a panel data set consisting of hourly air pollution measurements. The augmented sinusoidal models produce an excellent fit to these data at three different levels of spatial detail.Air Pollution, Idiosyncratic component, Regional variation, Semiparametric model, Sinusoidal function, Spatial-temporal data, Tropospheric Ozone

The Ancillary Benefits from Climate Policy in the United States

This study investigates the benefits to human health that would occur in the United States (U.S.) due to reductions in local air pollutant emissions stemming from a federal policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). In order to measure the impacts of reduced emissions of local pollutants, this study considers a representative U.S. climate policy. Specifically, the climate policy modeled in this analysis is the Warner-Lieberman bill (S.2191) of 2008 and the paper considers the impacts of reduced emissions in the transport and electric power sectors. This analysis provides strong evidence that climate change policy in the U.S. will generate significant returns to society in excess of the benefits due to climate stabilization. The total health-related co-benefits associated with a representative climate policy over the years 2006 to 2030 range between $90 and$725 billion in present value terms depending on modeling assumptions. The majority of avoided damages are due to reduced emissions of SO2 from coal-fired power plants. Among the most important assumptions is whether remaining coal-fired generation capacity is permitted to “backslide” up to the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) cap on emissions. This analysis models two scenarios specifically related to this issue. Co-benefits increase from $90 billion, when the CAIR cap is met, to$256 billion if SO2 emissions are not permitted to exceed current emission rates. On a per ton basis, the co-benefit per ton of GHG emissions is projected to average between $2 and$14 ($2006). The per ton marginal abatement cost for the representative climate policy is estimated at$9 ($2006).

Boundary Terms and Three-Point Functions: An AdS/CFT Puzzle Resolved

${\cal N} = 8$ superconformal field theories, such as the ABJM theory at Chern-Simons level $k=1$ or $2$, contain 35 scalar operators ${\cal O}_{IJ}$ with $\Delta=1$ in the ${\bf 35}_v$ representation of SO(8). The 3-point correlation function of these operators is non-vanishing, and indeed can be calculated non-perturbatively in the field theory. But its AdS$_4$ gravity dual, obtained from gauged ${\cal N}=8$ supergravity, has no cubic $A^3$ couplings in its Lagrangian, where $A^{IJ}$ is the bulk dual of ${\cal O}_{IJ}$. So conventional Witten diagrams cannot furnish the field theory result. We show that the extension of bulk supersymmetry to the AdS$_4$ boundary requires the introduction of a finite $A^3$ counterterm that does provide a perfect match to the 3-point correlator. Boundary supersymmetry also requires infinite counterterms which agree with the method of holographic renormalization. The generating functional of correlation functions of the $\Delta=1$ operators is the Legendre transform of the on-shell action, and the supersymmetry properties of this functional play a significant role in our treatment.Comment: 67 page

Herschel Survey of the Palomar-Green QSOs at Low Redshift

We investigate the global cold dust properties of 85 nearby (z < 0.5) QSOs, chosen from the Palomar-Green sample of optically luminous quasars. We determine their infrared spectral energy distributions and estimate their rest-frame luminosities by combining Herschel data from 70 to 500 microns with near-infrared and mid-infrared measurements from the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). In most sources the far-infrared (FIR) emission can be attributed to thermally heated dust. Single temperature modified black body fits to the FIR photometry give an average dust temperature for the sample of 33~K, with a standard deviation of 8~K, and an average dust mass of 7E6 Solar Masses with a standard deviation of 9E6 Solar Masses. Estimates of star-formation that are based on the FIR continuum emission correlate with those based on the 11.3 microns PAH feature, however, the star-formation rates estimated from the FIR continuum are higher than those estimated from the 11.3 microns PAH emission. We attribute this result to a variety of factors including the possible destruction of the PAHs and that, in some sources, a fraction of the FIR originates from dust heated by the active galactic nucleus and by old stars.Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ

An Investigation of the Kinetics and Equilibrium Chemistry of Cold-Brew Coffee: Caffeine and Chlorogenic Acid Concentrations as a Function of Roasting Temperature and Grind Size

Abstract: Recently, both small and large commercial coffee brewers have begun offering cold-brew coffee drinks to customers with the claims that these cold-water extracts contain fewer bitter acids due to brewing conditions (Toddy website, 2016) while still retaining the flavor profile. Dunkin Donuts’ website suggests that the cold-water and long brewing times allow the coffee to reach “... its purest form.” With very little research existent on the chemistry of cold brew coffee consumers are left to the marketing strategies of Starbucks and other companies regarding the contents of cold-brew coffee. This research analyzes the caffeine and chlorogenic acid (3-CGA) content of cold-brew coffee as a function of brewing time, grind size, and roasting temperature of coffee beans sourced from the Kona region of Hawaii using high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC). Coarse and medium grinds of both dark and medium roasts were analyzed by mixing 350mL of filtered water with 35g of coffee grinds under constant stirring at 20°C. Sampling was performed every 15 minutes for the first hour, then every 30 minutes for the next ten to twelve hours, with a final sample being drawn at 24hours. Equilibrium concentrations for both 3-CGA and caffeine were reached following 600 minutes. The caffeine concentrations ranged from 935mg/L to 1475mg/L. Variation was seen as a function of roasting temperature, and less so grind size. The 3-CGA concentrations were found to range from 345mg/L to 547mg/L. In both cases, the medium roast coarse grind coffee produced the highest concentrations of caffeine and 3-CGA while dark roast coarse grind produced the lowest concentrations of caffeine and 3-CGA. Hot brew experiments agreed well with caffeine and 3-CGA extraction concentrations in both dark roast coffees, showing very similar final concentrations. The medium roast coffees showed deviation from the hot brew coffees with respect to caffeine, indicating the need for additional experimentation to determine the role of water temperature in the availability of caffeine during extraction

The road half traveled

This brief reviews the extensive evidence on agricultural market reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa and summarizes the impact reforms have had on market performance, agricultural production, use of modern inputs, and poverty. It offers eight recommendations for completing the reform process and developing a new agenda for agricultural markets in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The road half traveled

During the past two decades, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa undertook extensive economic reforms to reduce the role of the government and increase the role of the market in their economies. Because of the importance of the agricultural sector in the region, agricultural market reforms occupied a central place in these liberalization efforts. Agricultural reforms included the removal of price controls, deregulation of agricultural marketing, closure of state-owned enterprises that monopolized agricultural trade, and changes in the foreign exchange market to provide greater incentives for exports. The expectation was that improving price incentives for farmers and reducing government intervention in the agricultural sector would be enough to generate a supply response and allow well-functioning markets to emerge quickly. Almost two decades later, the general consensus is that the reform programs in Sub-Saharan Africa have not met expectations. At the beginning of the 21st century, Sub-Saharan Africa confronts a number of daunting problems: extensive hunger, malnutrition, poverty, resource degradation, and the spread of AIDS. Because the majority of the region's population remains dependent on agriculture for its livelihood, well-functioning and efficient agricultural markets continue to be key to improving Sub-Saharan Africa's economic health. This report reviews the extensive evidence on agricultural market reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa and summarizes the impact reforms have had on market performance, agricultural production, use of modern inputs,and poverty. The report offers eight recommmendations for completing the reform process and developing a new agenda for agricultural markets in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Reforming agricultural markets in Africa

"Since the early 1980s, almost all African governments have embarked on economic reform programs to reduce state intervention in the economy and to allow markets to play a larger role. In the agricultural sector these programs were designed to eliminate price controls on agricultural commodities, disband or privatize state farms and state-owned enterprises, reduce the heavy taxation of agricultural exports, phase out subsidies on fertilizer and other inputs, and allow greater competition in agricultural markets. These measures have been highly controversial. Proponents argue that the reforms have improved market efficiency, reduced budget deficits, stimulated export production, and increased the share of the final price received by farmers. Opponents argue that the reforms have destabilized agricultural prices, widened the income distribution gap, and reduced access to low-cost inputs. Reforming Agricultural Markets in Africa by Mylène Kherallah, Christopher Delgado, Eleni Gabre-Madhin, Nicholas Minot, and Michael Johnson, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press for IFPRI, reviews the experience of the last 20 years. It evaluates the degree to which the reforms have actually been implemented, their impact on agricultural production and prices, and the net effect on the well-being of African households." Author's Introduction.