Prediction of chronic postsurgical pain in adults: A protocol for multivariable prediciton model development

INTRODUCTION: Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) is a condition that affects an estimated 10%–50% of adults, depending on the surgical procedure. CPSP often interferes with activities of daily living and may have a negative impact on quality of life, emotional and physical well-being. Clinical prediction models can help clinicians target preventive strategies towards patients at high-risk of CPSP. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a clinically applicable and generalisable prediction model for CPSP in adults. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This research will be a prospective single-centre observational cohort study in Denmark spanning approximately 1 year or until a predefined number of patients are recruited (n=1526). Adult patients aged 18 years and older scheduled to undergo surgery will be recruited at Aarhus University Hospital. The primary outcome is CPSP 3 months after surgery defined as average pain intensity at rest or on movement ≥3 on numerical rating scale (NRS) within the past week, and/or average pain interference ≥3 on NRS among any of seven short-form Brief Pain Inventory items in the past week (general activity, mood, walking ability, normal work (including housework), relations with other people, sleep and enjoyment of life). Logistic regression will be used to conduct multivariate analysis. Predictive model performance will be evaluated by discrimination, calibration and model classification. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This research has been approved by Central Region Denmark and will be conducted in accordance with the Danish Data Protection Act and Declaration of Helsinki. Study findings will be disseminated through conference presentations and peer-reviewed publication. A CPSP risk calculator (CPSP-RC) will be developed based on predictors retained in the final models. The CPSP-RC will be made available online and as a mobile application to be easily accessible for clinical use and future research including validation and clinical impact assessments. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04866147

Recommendations for action: a community meeting in preparation for a mass-casualty opioid overdose event in Southeastern Ontario

Abstract Given the steady rise of overdose morbidity and mortality in North America, and increasing frequency of sudden clusters of non-fatal and fatal overdoses in other jurisdictions, regional preparedness plans to respond effectively to clusters of overdoses may reduce the impact of such events on the population. On the 27th of February 2017 in Kingston, Ontario, KFL&A Public Health, in collaboration with public health partners, hosted a full-day workshop involving table-top exercises and discussions for service partners on how to prepare for, respond to, and manage a mass-casualty event secondary to opioid overdose in Southeastern Ontario. The workshop assisted in identifying the various challenges faced by service partners, provided an understanding of the roles and responsibilities of partner agencies, and helped to determine next steps in preparation to address a mass opioid overdose situation at the local level. This report suggests key roles and responsibilities of partners involved in responding to a mass-casualty event secondary to opioid overdose, recommendations to address the feedback and challenges raised throughout the workshop, and a protocol to help determine when to activate an Incident Management System (IMS)

Additional file 1: of Recommendations for action: a community meeting in preparation for a mass-casualty opioid overdose event in Southeastern Ontario

Case definition of suspected opioid overdose syndrome. (DOCX 44 kb