A dynamic network approach for the study of human phenotypes

The use of networks to integrate different genetic, proteomic, and metabolic datasets has been proposed as a viable path toward elucidating the origins of specific diseases. Here we introduce a new phenotypic database summarizing correlations obtained from the disease history of more than 30 million patients in a Phenotypic Disease Network (PDN). We present evidence that the structure of the PDN is relevant to the understanding of illness progression by showing that (1) patients develop diseases close in the network to those they already have; (2) the progression of disease along the links of the network is different for patients of different genders and ethnicities; (3) patients diagnosed with diseases which are more highly connected in the PDN tend to die sooner than those affected by less connected diseases; and (4) diseases that tend to be preceded by others in the PDN tend to be more connected than diseases that precede other illnesses, and are associated with higher degrees of mortality. Our findings show that disease progression can be represented and studied using network methods, offering the potential to enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of human diseases. The dataset introduced here, released concurrently with this publication, represents the largest relational phenotypic resource publicly available to the research community.Comment: 28 pages (double space), 6 figure

Improving Diversity of Demographic Representation in Large Language Models via Collective-Critiques and Self-Voting

A crucial challenge for generative large language models (LLMs) is diversity: when a user's prompt is under-specified, models may follow implicit assumptions while generating a response, which may result in homogenization of the responses, as well as certain demographic groups being under-represented or even erased from the generated responses. In this paper, we formalize diversity of representation in generative LLMs. We present evaluation datasets and propose metrics to measure diversity in generated responses along people and culture axes. We find that LLMs understand the notion of diversity, and that they can reason and critique their own responses for that goal. This finding motivated a new prompting technique called collective-critique and self-voting (CCSV) to self-improve people diversity of LLMs by tapping into its diversity reasoning capabilities, without relying on handcrafted examples or prompt tuning. Extensive empirical experiments with both human and automated evaluations show that our proposed approach is effective at improving people and culture diversity, and outperforms all baseline methods by a large margin.Comment: To appear at EMNLP 2023 main conferenc

Crossing an Etalon with a Diffraction Grating for Use in Remote Sensing

iv, 27 p.Space Physics Research laboratory, University of Michiga

Limits of predictability in human mobility

A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis

Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility

Predictable Travel Routines While people rarely perceive their actions to be random, current models of human activity are fundamentally stochastic. Processes that rely on human mobility patterns, like the prediction of new epidemics, traffic engineering, or city planning, could benefit from highly accurate predictive models. To investigate the predictability of human dynamics, Song et al. (p. 1018 ) used the recorded trajectories of millions of mobile phone users, collected by mobile phone companies and anonymized for research purposes. They hypothesized that given the wide range of travel patterns that different users follow, there would be significant differences between their predictability as well: Users who travel less should be easier to predict than those who are constantly on the road. Surprisingly, there was 93% predictability across the whole user base, and individuals' predictability did not in general fall significantly below 80%. </jats:p

Dynamics of Ranking Processes in Complex Systems

The world is addicted to ranking: everything, from the reputation of scientists, journals, and universities to purchasing decisions is driven by measured or perceived differences between them. Here, we analyze empirical data capturing real time ranking in a number of systems, helping to identify the universal characteristics of ranking dynamics. We develop a continuum theory that not only predicts the stability of the ranking process, but shows that a noise-induced phase transition is at the heart of the observed differences in ranking regimes. The key parameters of the continuum theory can be explicitly measured from data, allowing us to predict and experimentally document the existence of three phases that govern ranking stability