Input variables considered in logistic geographic distribution model.

*<p>See text for description of data sources.</p

Geographic distribution model predictions.

<p>Probability of encounter with <b>A</b>) Speckled hind and <b>B</b>) warsaw grouper relative to existing (blue) and proposed (black) marine protected areas. 25 fathom (45.72 m) bathymetric line in blue. Basemap courtesy of Esri Ocean Basemap and its partners.</p

Point observations.

<p><b>A</b>) Speckled hind and <b>B</b>) warsaw grouper encounters reported by various data sources. 25 fathom (45.7 m) bathymetric line in blue. Basemap courtesy of Esri Ocean Basemap and its partners.</p

Evaluation of existing (lower case) and proposed (italicized, all caps) no-take marine reserves for speckled hind and warsaw grouper relative to coverage of viable habitats and percent of grouper protected, as predicted by geographic distribution models.

<p>Output range for cross-validation best predictor (X-val) and best-fitting (AIC) models for speckled hind provided to characterize uncertainty. Note that geographic distribution model was unable to resolve probabilities south of 28′ latitude for warsaw grouper.</p><p><b>Note:</b> Assumes CHAPC no-anchoring provision results in 50% efficiency at eliminating bycatch mortality. Warsaw grouper percent stock estimates not generated south of 28° latitude. Oculina Bank CHAPC evaluation excludes Experimental Closed Area (ECA). Oculina Bank CHAPC Extension evaluation excludes Daytona Steeples and Daytona Ledge.</p

No-take marine reserve protection per unit area.

<p>Percent of <b>A</b>) known and probable habitat and <b>B</b>) speckled hind (black) and warsaw grouper (light gray) stock per square kilometer.</p

Point observations relative to habitat.

<p>Speckled hind (X) and warsaw grouper (+) encounters reported by various data sources versus habitat off Northeast Florida. Habitat data courtesy U.S. Navy, NOAA, and USGS (Andy David, NOAA, pers. comm.).</p

Point and spawning observations.

<p><b>A</b>) Point observations of speckled hind (X) and warsaw grouper (+) relative to bathymetry and <b>B</b>) anecdotal spawning or aggregation observations of speckled hind (yellow star) and warsaw grouper (green crosses) relative to speckled hind geographic distribution model output and rejected (dashed lines) and proposed (solid lines) marine protected areas east of Murrell's Inlet, SC. Basemap courtesy of Esri Ocean Basemap and its partners.</p

Existing and proposed protected areas.

<p>Existing (gray) marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA options (red) developed by the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council's MPA Expert Workgroup (SAFMC 2013).</p

Point data sources evaluated in meta-analysis, indicating whether data was included in spatial classification model (SCM) or geographic distribution model (GDM).

<p>Point data sources evaluated in meta-analysis, indicating whether data was included in spatial classification model (SCM) or geographic distribution model (GDM).</p

Evaluation of Alternatives to Winter Closure of Black Sea Bass Pot Gear: Projected Impacts on Catch and Risk of Entanglement with North Atlantic Right Whales <i>Eubalaena glacialis</i>

<p>Time–area closures have been widely used in fisheries management to prevent overfishing and reduce the bycatch of protected species. Due to quota overages and concerns about entanglement of federally protected North Atlantic right whales <i>Eubalaena glacialis</i>, the commercial harvest of Black Sea Bass <i>Centropristis striata</i> using pot gear has been prohibited in the southeastern United States in winter since 2009. Following the rebuilding of the Black Sea Bass stock and a change to the start date of the fishing year, the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (SAFMC) increased the commercial annual catch limit (ACL) and is considering twelve alternatives to the pot gear closure that would revise the timing and/or spatial extent of the closure. Changes to this closure could affect the annual catch of Black Sea Bass and increase the risk of right whale entanglement in pot gear. Using historical fishing effort, landings, and right whale sightings data, we projected Black Sea Bass landings and the relative risk of right whale entanglement for each closure alternative, expressed in relative risk units (RRU). We predict that the ACL would be caught, resulting in an in-season closure for most of the proposed SAFMC closure alternatives. The relative risk of entanglement, estimated from the spatial and temporal overlap of Black Sea Bass pot gear fishing effort and right whale relative abundance, was lower for some alternatives than for others, and the relative differences between alternatives were consistent among uncertainty scenarios. The SAFMC’s preferred alternative is projected to result in a relatively low increase in risk to North Atlantic right whales (3–15 RRU off North Carolina and 1–12 RRU off Florida–South Carolina). This framework demonstrates the use of temporally dynamic spatial overlays in assessing the impacts of time–area closures with multiple objectives.</p> <p>Received April 23, 2015; accepted January 15, 2016</p