The Use of Putative Dialysis Initiation Time in Comparative Outcomes of Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease: Methodological Aspects

The latest data from the United States Renal Data Systems show over 134,000 individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) starting dialysis in the year 2019. ESKD patients on dialysis, the default treatment strategy, have high mortality and hospitalization, especially in the first year of dialysis. An alternative treatment strategy is (non-dialysis) conservative management (CM). The relative effectiveness of CM with respect to various patient outcomes, including survival, hospitalization, and health-related quality of life among others, especially in elderly ESKD or advanced chronic kidney disease patients with serious comorbidities, is an active area of research. A technical challenge inherent in comparing patient outcomes between CM and dialysis patient groups is that the start of follow-up time is “not defined” for patients on CM because they do not initiate dialysis. One solution is the use of putative dialysis initiation (PDI) time. In this work, we examine the validity of the use of PDI time to determine the start of follow-up for longitudinal retrospective and prospective cohort studies involving CM. We propose and assess the efficacy of estimating PDI time using linear mixed effects model of kidney function decline over time via simulation studies. We also illustrate how the estimated PDI time can be used to effectively estimate the survival distribution

One-Year Mortality after Contemporary Laparoscopic Bariatric Surgery: An Analysis of the Bariatric Outcomes Longitudinal Database.

BACKGROUND:Contemporary mortality after bariatric surgery is low and has been decreasing over the past 2 decades. Most studies have reported inpatient or 30-day mortality, which may not represent the true risk of bariatric surgery. The objective of this study was to examine 1-year mortality and factors predictive of 1-year mortality after contemporary laparoscopic bariatric surgery. STUDY DESIGN:Using the 2008 to 2012 Bariatric Outcomes Longitudinal Database (BOLD), data from 158,606 operations were analyzed, including 128,349 (80.9%) laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) and 30,257 (19.1%) laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) operations. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors associated with 1-year mortality for each type of procedure. RESULTS:The 30-day and 1-year mortality rates for LRYGB were 0.13% and 0.23%, respectively, and for LSG were 0.06% and 0.11%, respectively. Risk factors for 1-year mortality included older age (LRYGB: adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.05 per year, p < 0.001; LSG: AOR 1.08 per year, p < 0.001); male sex (LRYGB: AOR 1.88, p < 0.001); higher BMI (LRYGB: AOR 1.04 per unit, p < 0.001; LSG: AOR 1.05 per unit, p = 0.009); and the presence of 30-day leak (LRYGB: AOR 25.4, p < 0.001; LSG: AOR 35.8, p < 0.001), 30-day pulmonary embolism (LRYGB: AOR 34.5, p < 0.001; LSG: AOR 252, p < 0.001), and 30-day hemorrhage (LRYGB: AOR 2.34, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Contemporary 1-year mortality after laparoscopic bariatric surgery is much lower than previously reported, at <0.25%. It is important to continually refine techniques and perioperative management in order to minimize leaks, hemorrhage, and pulmonary embolus after bariatric surgery because these complications contribute to a higher risk of mortality

High-Dimensional Fixed Effects Profiling Models and Applications in End-Stage Kidney Disease Patients: Current State and Future Directions

Profiling analysis aims to evaluate health care providers, including hospitals, nursing homes, or dialysis facilities among others with respect to a patient outcome, such as 30-day unplanned hospital readmission or mortality. Fixed effects (FE) profiling models have been developed over the last decade, motivated by the overall need to (a) improve accurate identification or “flagging” of under-performing providers, (b) relax assumptions inherent in random effects (RE) profiling models, and (c) take into consideration the unique disease characteristics and care/treatment processes of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients on dialysis. In this paper, we review the current state of FE methodologies and their rationale in the ESKD population and illustrate applications in four key areas: profiling dialysis facilities for (1) patient hospitalizations over time (longitudinally) using standardized dynamic readmission ratio (SDRR), (2) identification of dialysis facility characteristics (e.g., staffing level) that contribute to hospital readmission, and (3) adverse recurrent events using standardized event ratio (SER). Also, we examine the operating characteristics with a focus on FE profiling models. Throughout these areas of applications to the ESKD population, we identify challenges for future research in both methodology and clinical studies

Rejoinder: Time-dynamic profiling with application to hospital readmission among patients on dialysis.

Standard profiling analysis aims to evaluate medical providers, such as hospitals, nursing homes, or dialysis facilities, with respect to a patient outcome. The outcome, for instance, may be mortality, medical complications, or 30-day (unplanned) hospital readmission. Profiling analysis involves regression modeling of a patient outcome, adjusting for patient health status at baseline, and comparing each provider's outcome rate (e.g., 30-day readmission rate) to a normative standard (e.g., national "average"). Profiling methods exist mostly for non time-varying patient outcomes. However, for patients on dialysis, a unique population which requires continuous medical care, methodologies to monitor patient outcomes continuously over time are particularly relevant. Thus, we introduce a novel time-dynamic profiling (TDP) approach to assess the time-varying 30-day readmission rate. TDP is used to estimate, for the first time, the risk-standardized time-dynamic 30-day hospital readmission rate, throughout the time period that patients are on dialysis. We develop the framework for TDP by introducing the standardized dynamic readmission ratio as a function of time and a multilevel varying coefficient model with facility-specific time-varying effects. We propose estimation and inference procedures tailored to the problem of TDP and to overcome the challenge of high-dimensional parameters when examining thousands of dialysis facilities

Sertraline May Improve Language Developmental Trajectory in Young Children with Fragile X Syndrome: A Retrospective Chart Review

Young children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) often experience anxiety, irritability, and hyperactivity related to sensory hyperarousal. However, there are no medication recommendations with documented efficacy for children under 5 years old of age with FXS. We examined data through a chart review for 45 children with FXS, 12-50 months old, using the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) for baseline and longitudinal assessments. All children had clinical level of anxiety, language delays based on MSEL scores, and similar early learning composite (ELC) scores at their first visit to our clinic. Incidence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) was similar in both groups. There were 11 children who were treated with sertraline, and these patients were retrospectively compared to 34 children who were not treated with sertraline by chart review. The baseline assessments were done at ages ranging from 18 to 44 months (mean 26.9, SD 7.99) and from 12 to 50 months (mean 29.94, SD 8.64) for treated and not treated groups, respectively. Mean rate of improvement in both expressive and receptive language development was significantly higher in the group who was treated with sertraline (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0071, resp.). This data supports the need for a controlled trial of sertraline treatment in young children with FXS

Dialysate Potassium and Mortality in a Prospective Hemodialysis Cohort.

BackgroundStudies examining the association of dialysate potassium concentration and mortality in hemodialysis patients show conflicting findings. We hypothesized that low dialysate potassium concentrations are associated with higher mortality, particularly in patients with high pre-dialysis serum potassium concentrations.MethodsWe evaluated 624 hemodialysis patients from the prospective Malnutrition, Diet, and Racial Disparities in Kidney Disease study recruited from 16 outpatient dialysis facilities over 2011-2015 who underwent protocolized collection of dialysis treatment characteristics every 6 months. We examined the association of dialysate potassium concentration, categorized as 1, 2, and 3 mEq/L, with all-cause mortality risk in the -overall cohort, and stratified by pre-dialysis serum potassium (< 5 vs. ≥5 mEq/L) using case-mix adjusted Cox models.ResultsIn baseline analyses, dialysate potassium concentrations of 1 mEq/L were associated with higher mortality, whereas concentrations of 3 mEq/L were associated with similar mortality in the overall cohort (reference: 2 mEq/L): adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs; 95% CI) 1.70 (1.01-2.88) and 0.95 (0.64-1.39), respectively. In analyses stratified by serum potassium, baseline dialysate potassium concentrations of 1 mEq/L were associated with higher mortality in patients with serum potassium ≥5 mEq/L but not in those with serum potassium < 5 mEq/L: aHRs (95% CI) 2.87 (1.51-5.46) and 0.74 (0.27-2.07), respectively (p interaction = 0.04). These findings were robust with incremental adjustment for serum potassium, potassium-binding resins, and potassium-modifying medications.ConclusionLow (1 mEq/L) dialysate potassium -concentrations were associated with higher mortality, particularly in hemodialysis patients with high pre-dialysis serum potassium. Further studies are needed to identify therapeutic strategies that mitigate inter-dialytic serum potassium accumulation and subsequent high dialysate serum potassium gradients in this population

Association of thyroid status prior to transition to end-stage renal disease with early dialysis mortality.

BackgroundAdvanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, including those receiving dialysis, have a high prevalence of thyroid dysfunction. Although hypothyroidism is associated with higher death risk in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, no studies have examined whether thyroid status in the pre-ESRD period impacts mortality after dialysis initiation.MethodsAmong US veterans with CKD identified from the national Veterans Affairs database that transitioned to dialysis over the period from October 2007 to September 2011, we examined the association of pre-ESRD serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels averaged over the 1-year pre-dialysis ('prelude') period with all-cause mortality in the first year following dialysis initiation.ResultsAmong 15 335 patients in the 1-year prelude cohort, TSH levels >5.0 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality in expanded case-mix Cox models (reference: TSH 0.5-5.0 mIU/L): adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 (1.07-1.33). Similar findings were observed for TSH >5.0 mIU/L and mortality in the 2- and 5-year cohorts: aHRs (95% CI) 1.11 (1.02-1.21) and 1.15 (1.07-1.24), respectively. Analyses of finer gradations of TSH in the 1-year prelude cohort demonstrated that incrementally higher levels >5.0 mIU/L were associated with increasingly higher mortality in expanded case-mix models (reference: TSH 0.5-3.0 mIU/L): aHRs (95% CI) 1.18 (1.04-1.33) and 1.28 (1.03-1.59) for TSH levels >5.0-10.0 mIU/L and >10.0 mIU/L, respectively. In the 2- and 5-year cohorts, mortality associations persisted most strongly for those with TSH >10.0 mIU/L, particularly after laboratory covariate adjustment.ConclusionsAmong new ESRD patients, there is a dose-dependent relationship between higher pre-ESRD TSH levels >5.0 mIU/L and post-ESRD mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of TSH reduction with thyroid hormone supplementation in this population

Predialysis Kidney Function and Its Rate of Decline Predict Mortality and Hospitalizations After Starting Dialysis.

ObjectiveTo determine whether kidney function level and its rate of decline in the immediate predialysis period among veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) predict postdialysis mortality and hospitalization.Patients and methodsIn 19,985 veterans transitioning to ESRD during the period October 1, 2007, to March 30, 2014, we examined kidney function and its slope over the final year of the pre-ESRD(prelude) period. Two categories of low vs high estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, dichotomized at 10 mL/min/1.73 m2) and slow vs fast slope (dichotomized at -10 mL/min/1.73 m2/y) were combined into 4 groups. Their associations with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and hospitalization rates were examined in adjusted models accounting for clinical characteristics and laboratory measurements at transition.ResultsPatients, 66±11 years old, and 34% blacks, had a median (interquartile range) eGFR at transition and slope of 9.7 (7.1-13.3) mL/min/1.73 m2 and -10.5 (-18.8 to -5.9) mL/min/1.73 m2/y, respectively. Patients with a low eGFR and slow slope had the lowest 12-month all-cause and CV mortality risks and hospitalization rate. Conversely, patients with high eGFR and fast slope had the highest risk of all-cause and CV mortality and hospitalization rate compared with patients with a low eGFR and slow slope. This relationship persisted in sensitivity analyses, including propensity scoring.ConclusionA kidney profile of a low eGFR and slow slope in the prelude period is associated with favorable early dialysis outcomes in veteran patients. Trials to examine a more conservative approach to dialysis are warranted

Thyroid Status and Death Risk in US Veterans With Chronic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE:Given that patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) have a disproportionately higher prevalence of hypothyroidism compared with their non-CKD counterparts, we sought to determine the association between thyroid status, defined by serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels, and mortality among a national cohort of patients with NDD-CKD. PATIENTS AND METHODS:Among 227,422 US veterans with stage 3 NDD-CKD with 1 or more TSH measurements during the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2012, we first examined the association of thyroid status, defined by TSH categories of less than 0.5, 0.5 to 5.0 (euthyroidism), and more than 5.0 mIU/L, with all-cause mortality. We then evaluated 6 granular TSH categories: less than 0.1, 0.1 to less than 0.5, 0.5 to less than 3.0, 3.0 to 5.0, more than 5.0 to 10.0, and more than 10.0 mIU/L. We concurrently examined thyroid status, thyroid-modulating therapy, and mortality in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS:In expanded case-mix adjusted Cox analyses, compared with euthyroidism, baseline and time-dependent TSH levels of more than 5.0 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] [95% CI], 1.19 [1.15-1.24] and 1.23 [1.19-1.28], respectively), as were baseline and time-dependent TSH levels of less than 0.5 mIU/L (aHRs [95% CI], 1.18 [1.15-1.22] and 1.41 [1.37-1.45], respectively). Granular examination of thyroid status showed that incrementally higher TSH levels of 3.0 mIU/L or more were associated with increasingly higher mortality in baseline and time-dependent analyses, and TSH categories of less than 0.5 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality (reference, 0.5-<3.0 mIU/L) in baseline analyses. In time-dependent analyses, untreated and undertreated hypothyroidism and untreated hyperthyroidism were associated with higher mortality (reference, spontaneous euthyroidism), whereas hypothyroidism treated-to-target showed lower mortality. CONCLUSION:Among US veterans with NDD-CKD, high-normal TSH (≥3.0 mIU/L) and lower TSH (<0.5 mIU/L) levels were associated with higher death risk. Interventional studies identifying the target TSH range associated with the greatest survival in patients with NDD-CKD are warranted

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Sertraline in Young Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Objective: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors like sertraline have been shown in observational studies and anecdotal reports to improve language development in young children with fragile X syndrome (FXS). A previous controlled trial of sertraline in young children with FXS found significant improvement in expressive language development as measured by the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) among those with comorbid autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in post hoc analysis, prompting the authors to probe whether sertraline is also indicated in nonsyndromic ASD. Methods: The authors evaluated the efficacy of 6 months of treatment with low-dose sertraline in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 58 children with ASD aged 24 to 72 months. Results: 179 subjects were screened for eligibility, and 58 were randomized to sertraline (32) or placebo (26). Eight subjects from the sertraline arm and five from the placebo arm discontinued. Intent-to-treat analysis showed no significant difference from placebo on the primary outcomes (MSEL expressive language raw score and age equivalent combined score) or secondary outcomes. Sertraline was well tolerated, with no difference in side effects between sertraline and placebo groups. No serious adverse events possibly related to study treatment occurred. Conclusion: This randomized controlled trial of sertraline treatment showed no benefit with respect to primary or secondary outcome measures. For the 6-month period, treatment in young children with ASD appears safe, although the long-term side effects of low-dose sertraline in early childhood are unknown. Clinical Trial Registration: www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT02385799