Nested Dynamics of Metropolitan Processes and Policies - MELBOURNE

BACKGROUND PAPERS FOR THE METROPOLITAN STUDY: 1 -- The Project "Nested Dynamics of Metropolitan Processes and Policies" was initiated by the Regional and Urban Development Group in 1983 and work on this collaborative study started in 1983. This series of contributions represent "entry tickets" to the Project, i.e., initial statements by authors from individual metropolitan regions that are participating in the Project's network. The aim of these papers is threefold. First, to provide some background information describing the processes of change within four principal subsystems: population, housing, economy, and transportation. Second, to identify major trends and crucial policy issues which are to constitute a focus for the subsequent analytical and modeling work. Third, to facilitate comparative studies of development paths among these regions and the dynamic interdependencies between the above subsystems. The background material contained in this paper pertains to the Melbourne metropolitan region

What can mathematical models bring to the control of equine influenza?

Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is increasingly regarded as an important tool in the development of disease prevention and control measures. This article brings together key findings from various modelling studies conducted over the past 10 years that are of relevance to those on the front line of the battle against equine influenza

The influence of a menthol and ethanol soaked garment on human temperature regulation and perception during exercise and rest in warm, humid conditions

This study assessed whether donning a garment saturated with menthol and ethanol (M/E) can improve evaporative cooling and thermal perceptions versus water (W) or nothing (CON) during low intensity exercise and rest in warm, humid conditions often encountered in recreational/occupational settings. It was hypothesised there would be no difference in rectal (Tre) and skin (Tsk) temperature, infra-red thermal imagery of the chest/back, thermal comfort (TC) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) between M/E, W and CON, but participants would feel cooler in M/E versus W or CON. Methods - Six volunteers (mean [SD] 22 [4] years, 72.4 [7.4] kg and 173.6 [3.7] cm) completed (separate days) three, 60-min tests in 30 °C, 70%rh, in a balanced order. After 15-min of seated rest participants donned a dry (CON) or 80 mL soaked (M/E, W) long sleeve shirt appropriate to their intervention. They then undertook 30-min of low intensity stepping at a rate of 12 steps/min on a 22.5 cm box, followed by 15-min of seated rest. Measurements included heart rate (HR), Tre, Tsk (chest/back/forearm), thermal imaging (back/chest), thermal sensation (TS), TC and RPE. Data were reported every fifth minute as they changed from baseline and the area under the curves were compared by condition using one-way repeated measures ANOVA, with an alpha level of 0.05. Results - Tre differed by condition, with the largest heat storage response observed in M/E (p<0.05). Skin temperature at the chest/back/forearm, and thermal imaging of the chest all differed by condition, with the greatest rate of heat loss observed in W and M/E respectively (p<0.01). Thermal sensation differed by condition, with the coolest sensations observed in M/E (p<0.001). No other differences were observed. Conclusions - Both M/E and W enhanced evaporative cooling compared CON, but M/E causes cooler sensations and a heat storage response, both of which are likely mediated by menthol

Matching of experimental and statistical-model thermonuclear reaction rates at high temperatures

We address the problem of extrapolating experimental thermonuclear reaction rates toward high stellar temperatures (T>1 GK) by using statistical model (Hauser-Feshbach) results. Reliable reaction rates at such temperatures are required for studies of advanced stellar burning stages, supernovae, and x-ray bursts. Generally accepted methods are based on the concept of a Gamow peak. We follow recent ideas that emphasized the fundamental shortcomings of the Gamow peak concept for narrow resonances at high stellar temperatures. Our new method defines the effective thermonuclear energy range (ETER) by using the 8th, 50th, and 92nd percentiles of the cumulative distribution of fractional resonant reaction rate contributions. This definition is unambiguous and has a straightforward probability interpretation. The ETER is used to define a temperature at which Hauser-Feshbach rates can be matched to experimental rates. This matching temperature is usually much higher compared to previous estimates that employed the Gamow peak concept. We suggest that an increased matching temperature provides more reliable extrapolated reaction rates since Hauser-Feshbach results are more trustwhorthy the higher the temperature. Our ideas are applied to 21 (p,γ), (p,α), and (α,γ) reactions on A=20-40 target nuclei. For many of the cases studied here, our extrapolated reaction rates at high temperatures differ significantly from those obtained using the Gamow peak concept

Polarisation of equine pregnancy outcome is associated with a maternal MHC class I allele

Identification of risk factors which are associated with severe clinical signs can assist in the management of disease outbreaks and indicate future research areas. Pregnancy loss during late gestation in the mare compromises welfare, reduces fecundity and has financial implications for horse owners. This retrospective study focussed on the identification of risk factors associated with pregnancy loss among 46 Thoroughbred mares on a single British stud farm, with some but not all losses involving equid herpesvirus-1 (EHV-1) infection. In a sub-group of 30 mares, association between pregnancy loss and the presence of five common Thoroughbred horse haplotypes of the equine Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) was assessed. This involved development of sequence specific, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reactions and in several mares, EHV-1 specific, cytotoxic T lymphocyte activity. Of the 46 mares, 10 suffered late gestation pregnancy loss or neonatal foal death, five of which were EHV-1 positive. Maternal factors including age, parity, number of EHV-1 specific vaccinations and the number of days between final vaccination and foaling or abortion were not significantly associated with pregnancy loss. In contrast, a statistically significant association between the presence of the MHC class I B2 allele and pregnancy loss was identified, regardless of the fetus / foal’s EHV-1 status (p=0.002). In conclusion, this study demonstrated a significantly positive association between pregnancy loss in Thoroughbred mares and a specific MHC class I allele in the mother. This association requires independent validation and further investigation of the mechanism by which the mare’s genetic background contributes to pregnancy outcome

Remeasurement of the 193 keV resonance in O17(p,α)N14

A recently discovered resonance at 193 keV determines the thermonuclear rates of the O17 +p reactions at temperatures important for the nucleosynthesis in classical novae (T=0.1-0.4 GK). We report on a remeasurement of this resonance in the O17(p,α)N14 reaction by using a different kind of target compared to the previous study. Special emphasis is placed on Monte Carlo simulations of the experiment in order to better understand certain effects that have been disregarded previously. Our measured value of the resonance strength amounts to (ωγ)pα=(1.66±0.17)×10-3 eV, in agreement with the previously reported result. As a byproduct of our study, we find that the inhomogeneity of the foil placed in front of the α-particle detector determines the resolution in the pulse-height spectrum, and thus constrains the signal-to-noise ratio in searches of very weak (p,α) resonances

What can mathematical models bring to the control of equine influenza?

Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is increasingly regarded as an important tool in the development of disease prevention and control measures. This article brings together key findings from various modelling studies conducted over the past 10 years that are of relevance to those on the front line of the battle against equine influenza

Measurement of O17(p,γ)F18 between the narrow resonances at Erlab=193 and 519keV

The O17(p,γ)F18 reaction sensitively influences hydrogen burning nucleosynthesis in a number of stellar sites, including classical novae. These thermonuclear explosions, taking place in close binary star systems, produce peak temperatures in the range of T=100-400 MK. Recent results indicate that the thermonuclear rates for this reaction in this particular temperature range are dominated by the direct capture process. We report on the measurement of the O17(p,γ)F18 cross section between the narrow resonances at Erlab=193 and 519keV, where the S factor is expected to vary smoothly with energy. We extract the direct capture contribution from the total cross section and demonstrate that earlier data are inconsistent with our results

Gamow peak in thermonuclear reactions at high temperatures

The Gamow peak represents one of the most important concepts in the study of thermonuclear reactions in stars. It is widely used in order to determine, at a given plasma temperature, the effective stellar energy region in which most charged-particle induced nuclear reactions occur. It is of importance in the design of nuclear astrophysics measurements, including those involving radioactive ion beams, and for the determination of stellar reaction rates. We demonstrate that the Gamow peak concept breaks down under certain conditions if a nuclear reaction proceeds through narrow resonances at elevated temperatures. It is shown that an effective stellar energy window does indeed exist in which most thermonuclear reactions take place at a given temperature, but that this energy window can differ significantly from the commonly used Gamow peak. We expect that these findings are especially important for thermonuclear reactions in the advanced burning stages of massive stars and in explosive stellar environments