Recent advances in the development of a European Mars climate model in Oxford

Since the early 1990s, efforts have been under way in Oxford to develop a range of numerical weather and climate prediction models for various studies of the Martian atmosphere and near-surface environment. Early versions of the Oxford model were more in the way of 'process models', aimed at relatively idealised studies e.g. of baroclinic instability[1] and low-level western boundary currents in the cross-equatorial solsticial Hadley circulation[2]. Since the mid-1990s, however, the group in Oxford have worked closely with the modelling group at LMD in Paris to develop a joint suite of more sophisticated and comprehensive numerical models of Mars' atmosphere. This collaboration, partly sponsored in recent years by the European Space Agency in connection with the associated development of a climate database for Mars[3], culminated in a suite of global circulation models[4], in which both groups share a library of parametrisation schemes, but in which the Oxford team use a spectral representation of horizontal fields (in the form of spherical harmonics) and the LMD group use a grid-point finite difference representation. These models were described in some detail by Forget et al.[4], and their preliminary validation and use in the construction of first versions of the European Mars Climate Database by Lewis et al.[3]. In the present report, we will review further developments which have taken place since the latter papers were published. Aspects of these developments which are common to both the LMD and Oxford groups will also be covered in the companion contribution by Forget et al. in this meeting, and so will only be touched on briefly here. Instead, we will concentrate on those advances which are more specific to the Oxford version of the model. In the following sections, we outline the main new developments to the model formulation since 1999. Subsequent sections then describe some recent examples where the new model is being utilised to advance a diverse range of studies of Mars atmospheric science

A statistical network analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Cuba

The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light onto the spread of HIV and the role of contact-tracing. Clustering based on modularity optimization provides a better visualization and understanding of the network, in combination with the study of covariates. The graph has a globally low but heterogeneous density, with clusters of high intraconnectivity but low interconnectivity. Though descriptive, our results pave the way for incorporating structure when studying stochastic SIR epidemics spreading on social networks

Matching Kasteleyn Cities for Spin Glass Ground States

As spin glass materials have extremely slow dynamics, devious numerical methods are needed to study low-temperature states. A simple and fast optimization version of the classical Kasteleyn treatment of the Ising model is described and applied to two-dimensional Ising spin glasses. The algorithm combines the Pfaffian and matching approaches to directly strip droplet excitations from an excited state. Extended ground states in Ising spin glasses on a torus, which are optimized over all boundary conditions, are used to compute precise values for ground state energy densities.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures; minor clarification

Interfaces (and Regional Congruence?) in Spin Glasses

We present a general theorem restricting properties of interfaces between thermodynamic states and apply it to the spin glass excitations observed numerically by Krzakala-Martin and Palassini-Young in spatial dimensions d=3 and 4. We show that such excitations, with interface dimension smaller than d, cannot yield regionally congruent thermodynamic states. More generally, zero density interfaces of translation-covariant excitations cannot be pinned (by the disorder) in any d but rather must deflect to infinity in the thermodynamic limit. Additional consequences concerning regional congruence in spin glasses and other systems are discussed.Comment: 4 pages (ReVTeX); 1 figure; submitted to Physical Review Letter

Mean-field solution of the small-world network model

The small-world network model is a simple model of the structure of social networks, which simultaneously possesses characteristics of both regular lattices and random graphs. The model consists of a one-dimensional lattice with a low density of shortcuts added between randomly selected pairs of points. These shortcuts greatly reduce the typical path length between any two points on the lattice. We present a mean-field solution for the average path length and for the distribution of path lengths in the model. This solution is exact in the limit of large system size and either large or small number of shortcuts.Comment: 14 pages, 2 postscript figure

Bounds for the time to failure of hierarchical systems of fracture

For years limited Monte Carlo simulations have led to the suspicion that the time to failure of hierarchically organized load-transfer models of fracture is non-zero for sets of infinite size. This fact could have a profound significance in engineering practice and also in geophysics. Here, we develop an exact algebraic iterative method to compute the successive time intervals for individual breaking in systems of height $n$ in terms of the information calculated in the previous height $n-1$. As a byproduct of this method, rigorous lower and higher bounds for the time to failure of very large systems are easily obtained. The asymptotic behavior of the resulting lower bound leads to the evidence that the above mentioned suspicion is actually true.Comment: Final version. To appear in Phys. Rev. E, Feb 199