BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management

As managers of agricultural and natural resources are confronted with uncertainties in global change impacts, the complexities associated with the interconnected cycling of nitrogen, carbon, and water present daunting management challenges. Existing models provide detailed information on specific sub-systems (e.g., land, air, water, and economics). An increasing awareness of the unintended consequences of management decisions resulting from interconnectedness of these sub-systems, however, necessitates coupled regional earth system models (EaSMs). Decision makers’ needs and priorities can be integrated into the model design and development processes to enhance decision-making relevance and “usability” of EaSMs. BioEarth is a research initiative currently under development with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest region that explores the coupling of multiple stand-alone EaSMs to generate usable information for resource decision-making. Direct engagement between model developers and non-academic stakeholders involved in resource and environmental management decisions throughout the model development process is a critical component of this effort. BioEarth utilizes a bottom-up approach for its land surface model that preserves fine spatial-scale sensitivities and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which makes it unique among many regional EaSMs. This paper describes the BioEarth initiative and highlights opportunities and challenges associated with coupling multiple stand-alone models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision-making

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON THE ATMOSPHERIC NITROGEN CYCLE IN THE UNITED STATES

Human activities have significantly increased reactive nitrogen (N) emissions and atmospheric deposition, causing a range of negative impacts on human and ecosystem health. The controlling factors for amount of N deposition and atmospheric transport are not well understood. This research aims to fill the gap by investigating the effects of inter-annual climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the atmospheric N cycle in the U.S.Wavelet analysis on seasonal inorganic N wet deposition measured at the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and the NINO3.4 SST climate index indicated that up to 62% and 53% of the 2- to 6-year variations of precipitation and N wet deposition in the U.S., respectively, can be explained by ENSO activity. During El Niño winters, N wet deposition rates were above normal in the southern U.S., while La Niña events were associated with higher N wet deposition to the Cascades, the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes regions.Atmospheric N budgets for the western U.S. and its sub-regions were compiled using the Weather Research and Forecasting and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) modeling system. The modeling study showed that total N deposition and net N transport over the western U.S. during the 1997/98 El Niño event vs. the 1998/99 La Niña event differed by 2-10% and 5-58%, respectively, with respect to the average of the two events.To support human and environmental impact studies, there is a need for improving model predictions at different time scales for time period ranging from episodic few days to multiple years. Spectral analysis revealed that the diurnal (11-36 hours) and baseline (> 21 days) components are the most important time scales present in observed ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matters (PM2.5) concentrations in the western U.S. Together these components captured more than 75% of the total variances. The CMAQ model results analyzed for different temporal components indicated that improvement in the baseline component could improve overall model performance for episodic to multi-year studies

BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management

As managers of agricultural and natural resources are confronted with uncertainties in global change impacts, the complexities associated with the interconnected cycling of nitrogen, carbon, and water present daunting management challenges. Existing models provide detailed information on specific sub-systems (e.g., land, air, water, and economics). An increasing awareness of the unintended consequences of management decisions resulting from interconnectedness of these sub-systems, however, necessitates coupled regional earth system models (EaSMs). Decision makers’ needs and priorities can be integrated into the model design and development processes to enhance decision-making relevance and “usability” of EaSMs. BioEarth is a research initiative currently under development with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest region that explores the coupling of multiple stand-alone EaSMs to generate usable information for resource decision-making. Direct engagement between model developers and non-academic stakeholders involved in resource and environmental management decisions throughout the model development process is a critical component of this effort. BioEarth utilizes a bottom-up approach for its land surface model that preserves fine spatial-scale sensitivities and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which makes it unique among many regional EaSMs. This paper describes the BioEarth initiative and highlights opportunities and challenges associated with coupling multiple stand-alone models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision-making