Comparing the effects of different approaches to liberalising world grains markets

The success of the current Doha Round of the WTO negotiations on agriculture will require substantial reform in each of the three areas of market access, export subsidies and domestic support. Substantial improvement in market access for agricultural products will be an essential requirement for achieving a successful outcome. However, the extent of improvement in market access resulting from the current negotiations will largely depend on the form and the approach followed to reduce tariffs and expand tariff rate quotas. In this paper different approaches to expanding market access for grains area analysed using a partial equilibrium model. Simulated scenarios include linear reductions in applied tariffs and expansions in tariff rate quotas, which are contrasted with a scenario representing market access proposals of the Cairns Group of countries in the current WTO agricultural negotiations. The effects of these two trade liberalisation scenarios on world prices and trade are analysed and discussed. Results indicate that to achieve a meaningful gain in market access for grains, WTO members must agree to either directly reduce the current applied tariffs or make large percentage reductions to the WTO bound rates, which lead to effective reductions in the current applied rates.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Adaptive Governance: An Introduction and Implications for Public Policy

Adaptive governance is a concept from institutional theory that deals with the evolution of institutions for the management of shared assets, particularly common pool resources and other forms of natural capital. This paper is the first of a set of four papers on adaptive governance, providing a brief overview of the history of the concept, the distinguishing features of the literature, and key insights provided for economists and policy advisors. We argue that adaptive governance provides an interesting lens for examining the political economy of policy responses akin to the concept of market failure within economics, but applied to wider processes of social learning and collective choice, including collective choices about the scope and structure of institutions that govern lower level choices by individuals and organizations.adaptive governance, public policy, common pool resources, natural resource management, wicked problems, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

Integrated assessments of climate variability and change for Australian agriculture - Connecting the islands of knowledge

Key clients for regional or national assessment capabilities are government and industry policymakers, who must deal with constantly changing policy questions. For instance, adaptation to climate change has relatively recently come onto the policy agenda, as has the interaction between adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. 'Integrated assessment' has therefore become a common approach that attempts to demonstrate the policy relevance of science. It is intended to inform policies that ultimately lead to better risk management of agro-ecosystems (amongst other objectives). Increasingly policy stakeholders also demand realistic assessments of uncertainties that are associated with the scenarios underpinning such integrated assessments. This requires quantitative, probabilistic evaluation of risks and opportunities associated with specific scenarios that need to supplement the overall, qualitative assessments. Such evaluations can help to cut through the complexity of policy related issues without sacrificing the holistic perspective needed to maintain policy relevance. Using climate change as an example, we explore the role of quantitative models for integrated assessments and argue that a nested modelling approach (eg. climate model - biophysical model - socio-economic model - engagement model) to address all relevant disciplines, stakeholders and scales not only provides the quantitative information needed, but is also a valuable process to negotiate the complexities of the policy domain. This process might help us move more quickly from impact assessments (ie. unadapted responses) to well-structured scenario planning with adaptation, a process that is both policy and response informing

Defining Remoteness from Health Care: Integrated Research on Accessing Emergency Maternal Care in Indonesia<br />

The causes of maternal death are well known, and are largely preventable if skilled health care is received promptly. Complex interactions between geographic and socio-cultural factors affect access to, and remoteness from, health care but research on this topic rarely integrates spatial and social sciences. In this study, modeling of travel time was integrated with social science research to refine our understanding of remoteness from health care. Travel time to health facilities offering emergency obstetric care (EmOC) and population distribution were modelled for a district in eastern Indonesia. As an index of remoteness, the proportion of the population more than two hours estimated travel time from EmOC was calculated. For the best case scenario (transport by ambulance in the dry season), modelling estimated more than 10,000 fertile aged women were more than two hours from EmOC. Maternal mortality ratios were positively correlated with the remoteness index, however there was considerable variation around this relationship. In a companion study, ethnographic research in a subdistrict with relatively good access to health care and high maternal mortality identified factors influencing access to EmOC, including some that had not been incorporated into the travel time model. Ethnographic research provided information about actual travel involved in requesting and reaching EmOC. Modeled travel time could be improved by incorporating time to deliver request for care. Further integration of social and spatial methods and the development of more dynamic travel time models are needed to develop programs and policies to address these multiple factors to improve maternal health outcomes

Academic Entitlement in the Context of Learning Styles

This study explores the linkages between students&rsquo; sense of entitlement and their approaches to learning, based on survey research at a large public university in Canada.&nbsp; Through literature review and pilot testing, a questionnaire instrument was developed that measures four constructs:&nbsp; academic entitlement, deep learning, surface learning and strategic learning.&nbsp; Survey responses (n=1=2116) suggest that students approach learning in mixed ways, and that approaches to learning intersect with students&rsquo; sense of entitlement in complex ways.&nbsp; Overall, students&rsquo; scores on the sense of entitlement scale were found to be moderate, challenging some of the assertions about today&rsquo;s students that have been made in the popular press.&nbsp

Resolving the Metallicity Distribution of the Stellar Halo with the H3 Survey

The Galactic stellar halo is predicted to have formed at least partially from the tidal disruption of accreted dwarf galaxies. This assembly history should be detectable in the orbital and chemical properties of stars. The H3 Survey is obtaining spectra for 200,000 stars and, when combined with Gaia data, is providing detailed orbital and chemical properties of Galactic halo stars. Unlike previous surveys of the halo, the H3 target selection is based solely on magnitude and Gaia parallax; the survey therefore provides a nearly unbiased view of the entire stellar halo at high latitudes. In this paper we present the distribution of stellar metallicities as a function of Galactocentric distance and orbital properties for a sample of 4232 kinematically selected halo giants to 100 kpc. The stellar halo is relatively metal-rich, = -1.2, and there is no discernible metallicity gradient over the range 6 30 kpc, respectively. The Sagittarius stream dominates the metallicity distribution at 20-40 kpc for stars on prograde orbits. The Gaia-Enceladus merger remnant dominates the metallicity distribution for radial orbits to approximate to 30 kpc. Metal-poor stars with [Fe/H] < -2 are a small population of the halo at all distances and orbital categories. We associate the "in situ" stellar halo with stars displaying thick disk chemistry on halo-like orbits; such stars are confined to vertical bar z vertical bar < 10 kpc. The majority of the stellar halo is resolved into discrete features in chemical-orbital space, suggesting that the bulk of the stellar halo formed from the accretion and tidal disruption of dwarf galaxies. The relatively high metallicity of the halo derived in this work is a consequence of the unbiased selection function of halo stars and, in combination with the recent upward revision of the total stellar halo mass, implies a Galactic halo metallicity that is typical for its mass.This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

On Geometric Ergodicity of Skewed - SVCHARME models

Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility models with skewness driven by hidden Markov Chain with switching

A Lower Limit on the Mass of Our Galaxy from the H3 Survey

The timing argument provides a lower limit on the mass of the Milky Way. We find, using a sample of 32 stars at $R > 60$ kpc drawn from the H3 Spectroscopic Survey and mock catalogs created from published numerical simulations, that M$_{200} > 0.91\times 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$ with 90% confidence. We recommend using this limit to refine the allowed prior mass range in more complex and sophisticated statistical treatments of Milky Way dynamics. The use of such a prior would have significantly reduced many previously published uncertainty ranges. Our analysis suggests that the most likely value of M$_{200}$ is $\sim 1.4 \times 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$, but establishing this as the Milky Way mass requires a larger sample of outer halo stars and a more complete analysis of the inner halo stars in H3. The imminent growth in the sample of outer halo stars due to ongoing and planned surveys will make this possible.Comment: 8 pages, submitted for publicatio

Evidence from the H3 Survey that the Stellar Halo is Entirely Comprised of Substructure

In the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm the Galactic stellar halo is predicted to harbor the accreted debris of smaller systems. To identify these systems, the H3 Spectroscopic Survey, combined with $Gaia$, is gathering 6D phase-space and chemical information in the distant Galaxy. Here we present a comprehensive inventory of structure within 50 kpc from the Galactic center using a sample of 5684 giants at $|b|>40^{\circ}$ and $|Z|>2$ kpc. We identify known structures including the high-$\alpha$ disk, the in-situ halo (disk stars heated to eccentric orbits), Sagittarius (Sgr), $Gaia$-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE), the Helmi Streams, Sequoia, and Thamnos. Additionally, we identify the following new structures: (i) Aleph ([Fe/H]$=-0.5$), a low eccentricity structure that rises a surprising 10 kpc off the plane, (ii, iii) Arjuna ([Fe/H]$=-1.2$) and I'itoi ([Fe/H]$<-2$), which comprise the high-energy retrograde halo along with Sequoia, and (iv) Wukong ([Fe/H]$=-1.6$), a prograde phase-space overdensity chemically distinct from GSE. For each structure we provide [Fe/H], [$\alpha$/Fe], and orbital parameters. Stars born within the Galaxy are a major component at $|Z|\sim$2 kpc ($\approx$60$\%$), but their relative fraction declines sharply to $\lesssim$5$\%$ past 15 kpc. Beyond 15 kpc, $>$80$\%$ of the halo is built by two massive ($M_{\star}\sim10^{8}-10^{9}M_{\odot}$) accreted dwarfs: GSE ([Fe/H]$=-1.2$) within 25 kpc, and Sgr ([Fe/H]$=-1.0$) beyond 25 kpc. This explains the relatively high overall metallicity of the halo ([Fe/H]$\approx-1.2$). We attribute $\gtrsim$95$\%$ of the sample to one of the listed structures, pointing to a halo built entirely from accreted dwarfs and heating of the disk.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. Key results in Figures 18-21. Summary of individual structures in Sec. 3.3 and Table 1. Comments very welcome