US Household Demand for Organic Fruit

We estimate US household monthly elasticities of demand for some of the more popular organic fruits. To our knowledge, this is the first US-wide, multi-year analysis of price and income elasticities for various organic fruits. We calculate elasticities of demand for low-income, middle class, and rich income bracket households using three estimation techniques: two econometric methods and one machine learning method (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)). Demand estimates are based on Nielsen scanner data from approximately 60,000 households collected from 2011 to 2013. Generally, we find that own-price conditional and unconditional elasticities of demand for organic fruits are negative. Unconditional elasticity magnitudes tend to be largest in the representative middle-class household. Income elasticities of demand measurements are inconsistent and often statistically insignificant. This finding is consistent with the survey literature finding that many consumers buy organic food for mostly moral or ethical reasons. We run two policy experiments: a 10% subsidy of organic fruits, and a 10% tax on conventional fruits. Our hypothetical policies engender a stronger reaction among the general public than habitual buyers of organic fruit; unconditional purchase and expenditure elasticities are generally larger than conditional purchase and expenditure elasticities. Finally, we find that elasticities measured with the LASSO technique are not radically different than those measured with econometric methods. The most noticeable difference between the two analytical techniques is that LASSO is more likely to find price and income elasticities of demand that indistinguishable from zero, both substantively and statistically

Identifying the Opportunity Cost of Critical Habitat Designation under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

We determine the effect of the US Endangered Species Act’s Critical Habitat designation on land use change from 1992 to 2011. We find that the rate of change in developed land (constructed material) and agricultural land is not significantly affected by Critical Habitat designation. Therefore, Sections 7 and 9 of the Endangered Species Act do not appear to be more heavily applied in lands designated as Critical Habitat areas versus lands within listed species’ ranges, but without critical habitat designation. Further, there does not appear to be any extraordinary conservation activity in critical habitat areas; for example, environmental non-profits and land trusts do not appear to be concentrating activity in these areas. Before we conclude that the opportunity cost of Critical Habitat designation is negligible we need to examine the land management impacts of designation

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Complex Multiorgan System Trauma

With growing experience, the indications for salvage extracorporeal membrane oxygenation continue to expand. We describe a successful application of extracorporeal support in a polytrauma patient presenting with profound hypothermia, respiratory failure, and whom was later found to have an intracranial hemorrhage. We advocate the role of salvage therapy even in patients with complex pathophysiology despite perceived relative or absolute contraindications to extracorporeal support

China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security

Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in Europe, building Beijing’s soft power, weakening allied geopolitical solidarity, and potentially reprising the role it played in the 2010s, when its investments in Europe expanded dramatically. More specifically, there is concern over China’s investments in infrastructure and sensitive technologies relevant to American and allied military operations and capabilities. Whether Europe is prepared and able to parry Beijing’s economic statecraft is somewhat unclear, given varied attitudes toward China and the patchwork of investment screening mechanisms across the continent. Regardless, the outcomes will have significant implications for US security and for the Defense Department specifically. In support of US European Command (EUCOM) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) assembled an interdisciplinary team to examine these issues and offer actionable policy recommendations for military leaders and decisionmakers on both sides of the Atlantic. Study sponsors (nonfunding): United States European Command, United States Department of Homeland Securityhttps://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1945/thumbnail.jp

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and \u3e10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision

Reversible Resistance Induced by FLT3 Inhibition: A Novel Resistance Mechanism in Mutant FLT3-Expressing Cells

Clinical responses achieved with FLT3 kinase inhibitors in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are typically transient and partial. Thus, there is a need for identification of molecular mechanisms of clinical resistance to these drugs. In response, we characterized MOLM13 AML cell lines made resistant to two structurally-independent FLT3 inhibitors.MOLM13 cells were made drug resistant via prolonged exposure to midostaurin and HG-7-85-01, respectively. Cell proliferation was determined by Trypan blue exclusion. Protein expression was assessed by immunoblotting, immunoprecipitation, and flow cytometry. Cycloheximide was used to determine protein half-life. RT-PCR was performed to determine FLT3 mRNA levels, and FISH analysis was performed to determine FLT3 gene expression.We found that MOLM13 cells readily developed cross-resistance when exposed to either midostaurin or HG-7-85-01. Resistance in both lines was associated with dramatically elevated levels of cell surface FLT3 and elevated levels of phosphor-MAPK, but not phospho-STAT5. The increase in FLT3-ITD expression was at least in part due to reduced turnover of the receptor, with prolonged half-life. Importantly, the drug-resistant phenotype could be rapidly reversed upon withdrawal of either inhibitor. Consistent with this phenotype, no significant evidence of FLT3 gene amplification, kinase domain mutations, or elevated levels of mRNA was observed, suggesting that protein turnover may be part of an auto-regulatory pathway initiated by FLT3 kinase activity. Interestingly, FLT3 inhibitor resistance also correlated with resistance to cytosine arabinoside. Over-expression of FLT3 protein in response to kinase inhibitors may be part of a novel mechanism that could contribute to clinical resistance

Dynamic ham-sandwich cuts in the plane

We design efficient data structures for dynamically maintaining a ham-sandwich cut of two point sets in the plane subject to insertions and deletions of points in either set. A ham-sandwich cut is a line that simultaneously bisects the cardinality of both point sets. For general point sets, our first data structure supports each operation in O(n1/3+ε) amortized time and O(n4/3+ε) space. Our second data structure performs faster when each point set decomposes into a small number k of subsets in convex position: it supports insertions and deletions in O(logn) time and ham-sandwich queries in O(klog4n) time. In addition, if each point set has convex peeling depth k , then we can maintain the decomposition automatically using O(klogn) time per insertion and deletion. Alternatively, we can view each convex point set as a convex polygon, and we show how to find a ham-sandwich cut that bisects the total areas or total perimeters of these polygons in O(klog4n) time plus the O((kb)polylog(kb)) time required to approximate the root of a polynomial of degree O(k) up to b bits of precision. We also show how to maintain a partition of the plane by two lines into four regions each containing a quarter of the total point count, area, or perimeter in polylogarithmic time.Engineering and Applied Science

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the U.S.

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous U.S. to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared to a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover, natural landscapes, and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.Keywords: econometric model, land-use change, ecosystem services, food production, biodiversity, timber, carbonThis is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by [publisher] and can be found at: http://www.pnas.org/