Re-examining the role of structural change and nonlinearities in a Phillips curve model for South Africa

Abstract: Although studies generally find evidence of a Phillips curve-type relationship in South Africa, uncertainty remains about the relevance of the model over a relatively long sample period, and whether conventional output gap measures are suitable proxies for demand pressure. This paper reviews research which shows that the Phillips curve model prevails over an extended sample, provided that the benchmark specifications include major structural changes in the balance-of-payments and labour market, and account for shifts in the root causes of inflation. When this is done, a linear specification with an output gap in levels correctly predicts the non-trended inflation pattern over the period 1971(Q1)-1984(Q4), whereas a piecewise concave curve with an output gap in growth rates accurately forecasts the decelerating inflation pattern during 1986(Q1)-2001(Q2). A novel feature of the concave model is that it remains statistically robust and structurally stable when it is estimated until 2015(Q4). The concave model imparts a disinflationary bias, which suggests that monetary policy should be more expansionary during downswing phases of the business cycle and neutral during upswing phases. The analysis also considers how the shape of the Phillips curve might change if the balance-of-payments constraint on demand is relaxed in a significant way

The Stability of Money Demand in South Africa, 1965-1997

After the adoption of more market-oriented monetary policy measures in 1980, the South African Reserve Bank primarily relied on setting predetermined growth targets for M3 to achieve its primary objective of price stability. The main purpose of this paper is to test empirically whether there exists a stable long-run demand for money function over the period 1965-1997. The empirical results suggest that there exists a stable long-run demand for money function for M3 in South Africa, while the demand for M1 and M2 display parameter instability following financial reforms since 1980. The results largely support the South African Reserve Bank's view that the M3 money stock could serve as an indicator for monetary policy

The Relation Between Money, Income and Prices in South Africa

The main purpose of this paper is to determine whether inflation in South Africa has been caused by excessive monetary expansion over the period 1966-1997, or whether the money supply has merely been passive in the inflationary process. The analysis first draws on Friedman and Schwartz's (1982) theoretical exposition to transform South Africa's stable M3 money demand function into a theory of money, income and prices. Long-run price equations are then estimated with consumer price inflation as the relevant inflation variable, given that the M3 money demand function is deflated by consumer price inflation. To validate the econometric interpretation of the long-run price equations, causality tests based on the methodology developed by Pesaran et al. (1996) together with non-nested tests are used. These show that money and 'excess' money are endogenous to consumer price inflation and broad measures of inflation. The most important policy implication of an endogenously determined money supply is that a long-run analysis of inflation in South Africa should search beyond the realms of the Central Bank alone, and focus on the potential inflationary impact of structural and/or cost-push forces of inflation

The Forecasting Ability of a Cointegrated VAR Demand System with Endogeneous vs. Exogenous Expenditure Variable: An application to the UK imports of tourism from neighbouring countries

This paper uses Sims’s VAR methodology, as an alternative to Deaton and Muellbauer’s AIDS approach, to establish the long-run relationships between I(1) variables: tourism shares, tourism prices and UK tourism budget. The VAR deterministic components and sets of exogenous and endogenous variables are established, and the Johansen’s rank test is used to determine the cointegrated vectors in the system. The structural form of the cointegrated VAR is identified and the long-run parameters are estimated under several theoretical restrictions. The restricted cointegrated VAR reveals itself a theoretically consistent and statistically robust means to analyse the long-run demand behaviour of UK tourists and an accurate forecaster of the destinations’ shares.

Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?

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Explaining differences in the productivity of investment across countries in the context of ‘new growth theory’

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of investment across 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980-2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The productivity of investment is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a country’s gross investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection algorithm. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability are the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment and the determinants of productivity of investment differences matter for long-run growth

Growth transitions and the balance-of-payments constraint

Abstract: This paper re-evaluates the recent criticisms of ‘Thirlwall’s (1979) law’ against the literature on growth transitions. The unpredictable nature of growth transitions in developing economies suggests that the evidence derived from single-regime regression models, on which critics have based most of their arguments, is only suggestive about the long-run causes of growth. A rigorous test of Thirlwall’s law requires a more in-depth analysis of turning points in a developing country’s growth performance, and whether the growth law accurately predicts the sustainability of growth transitions. These arguments are illustrated with an application to South Africa over the period 1960-2017. The results show that it is misleading to evaluate Thirlwall’s law across a single regime. Once regime shifts are controlled for, the growth law accurately predicts South Africa’s growth performance during 1977-2003, and sheds light on the sustainable and unsustainable nature of growth transitions across the sub-periods 1960-1976 and 2004-2017, respectively. Since the literature on growth transitions identifies a competitive exchange rate as an initiating source of growth, rather than an individual long-run determinant, the omission of the level of the real exchange rate from the original growth law should not be regarded as a major weakness

Explaining Differences in the Productivity of Capital Across Countries in the Context of 'New' Growth Theory

The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of capital across countries taking 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980-2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The marginal product of capital is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a countrys investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection procedure. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability turn out to be the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment matters for long-run growth

The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes : evidence from South Africa

Abstract: This paper hypothesises that the saving rate and technological progress are interdependently determined by a common exogenous source, so that an exogenous shock to the saving rate determines long-run growth transitions. In an open-economy setting, the saving rate measures the quality of investment-led policies. The evidence shows that the down-break across South Africa’s ‘faster-growing’ regime (1952-1976) and ‘slower-growing’ regime (1977-2003) was caused by a negative shock to the saving rate that simultaneously led to a slowdown in the growth rate of technology via a structural decrease in the learning-by-doing parameter. The down-break results suggest that the saving rate is potentially an important policy variable to engineer a sustainable up-break. To assess this prediction with real data, the analysis looks at what happened in the post- 2003 period (2004-2012). The results show that the up-break in the fixed investment rate was not matched by the saving rate, which implies that capital investment did not generate a faster rate of technological progress. The stylised facts suggest that a sustained increase in the total investment rate, which not only includes infrastructure investment, but also machinery and equipment investment and complementary foreign direct investment, may be an effective investment-led strategy to raise the economy’s growth rate on a sustainable basis