The Distribution of the Deer Mouse, Peromyscus Maniculatus, on the Oregon Side of the Columbia River Gorge

A study of the biogeography of Peromyscus maniculatus was undertaken in order to ascertain a few of the environmental parameters important in defining the distribution of this species and how the species in turn has adapted to these parameters. The Columbia Gorge was chosen as it presents a climatic gradient from maritime to continental with very little elevation gain. Changes along this gradient in topography, soils and vegetation community structure are discussed

The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High

Simulating Current Successional Trajectories in Sagebrush Ecosystems With Multiple Disturbances Using a State-and-Transition Modeling Framework

Disturbances and their interactions play major roles in sagebrush (Artemisia spp. L.) community dynamics. Although impacts of some disturbances, most notably fire, have been quantified at the landscape level, some have been ignored and rarely are interactions between disturbances evaluated. We developed conceptual state-and-transition models for each of two broad sagebrush groups-a warm-dry group characterized by Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. subsp. wyomingensis Beetle & Young) communities and a cool-moist group characterized by mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. subsp. vase yana [Rydb.] Beetle) communities. We used the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool to explore how the abundance of community phases and states in each conceptual model might be affected by fire, insect outbreak, drought, snow mold, voles, sudden drops in winter temperatures (freeze-kill), livestock grazing, juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) expansion, nonnative annual grasses such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), and vegetation treatments. Changes in fuel continuity and loading resulted in average fire rotations of 12 yr in the warm-dry sagebrush group and 81 yr in the cool-moist sagebrush group. Model results in the warm-dry sagebrush group indicated postfire seeding success alone was not sufficient to limit the area of cheatgrass domination. The frequency of episodes of very high utilization by domestic livestock during severe drought was a key influence on community phase abundance in our models. In the cool-moist sagebrush group, model results indicated at least 10% of the juniper expansion area should be treated annually to keep juniper in check. Regardless, juniper seedlings and saplings would remain abundant.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by The Society for Range Management and can be found at: http://www.rangelands.org/Keywords: Juniper, Vegetation treatments, Livestock grazing, Annual grasses, Vegetation Dynamics Development too

A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for local land management

We developed a new climate-sensitive vegetation state-and-transition simulation model (CV-STSM) to simulate future vegetation at a fine spatial grain commensurate with the scales of human land-use decisions, and under the joint influences of changing climate, site productivity, and disturbance. CV-STSM integrates outputs from four different modeling systems. Successional changes in tree species composition and stand structure were represented as transition probabilities and organized into a state-and-transition simulation model. States were characterized based on assessments of both current vegetation and of projected future vegetation from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). State definitions included sufficient detail to support the integration of CV-STSM with an agent-based model of land-use decisions and a mechanistic model of fire behavior and spread. Transition probabilities were parameterized using output from a stand biometric model run across a wide range of site productivities. Biogeographic and biogeochemical projections from the DGVM were used to adjust the transition probabilities to account for the impacts of climate change on site productivity and potential vegetation type. We conducted experimental simulations in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. Our simulation landscape incorporated detailed new assessments of critically imperiled Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) savanna and prairie habitats among the suite of existing and future vegetation types. The experimental design fully crossed four future climate scenarios with three disturbance scenarios. CV-STSM showed strong interactions between climate and disturbance scenarios. All disturbance scenarios increased the abundance of oak savanna habitat, but an interaction between the most intense disturbance and climate-change scenarios also increased the abundance of subtropical tree species. Even so, subtropical tree species were far less abundant at the end of simulations in CV-STSM than in the dynamic global vegetation model simulations. Our results indicate that dynamic global vegetation models may overestimate future rates of vegetation change, especially in the absence of stand-replacing disturbances. Modeling tools such as CV-STSM that simulate rates and direction of vegetation change affected by interactions and feedbacks between climate and land-use change can help policy makers, land managers, and society as a whole develop effective plans to adapt to rapidly changing climate.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and can be found at: http://www.esajournals.org/loi/ecapKeywords: Envision, Agent-based model, Disturbance, Dynamic global vegetation model, MC1, State-and-transition simulation model, Oregon, Fire, Willamette Valle

Climate change and forest disturbances

Studies of the effects of climate change on forests have focused on the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes and to disperse, but they have ignored the effects of disturbances caused by climate change (e.g., Ojima et al. 1991). Yet modeling studies indicate the importance of climate effects on disturbance regimes (He et al. 1999). Local, regional, and global changes in temperature and precipitation can influence the occurrence, timing, frequency, duration, extent, and intensity of disturbances (Baker 1995, Turner et al. 1998). Because trees can survive from decades to centuries and take years to become established, climate-change impacts are expressed in forests, in part, through alterations in disturbance regimes (Franklin et al. 1992, Dale et al. 2000). Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, shape forest systems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Indeed, the forests of the United States are molded by their land-use and disturbance history. Within the United States, natural disturbances having the greatest effects on forests include fire, drought, introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, and landslides (Figure 1). Each disturbance affects forests differently. Some cause large-scale tree mortality, whereas others affect community structure and organization without causing massive mortality (e.g., ground fires). Forest disturbances influence how much carbon is stored in trees or dead wood. All these natural disturbances interact with human-induced effects on the environment, such as air pollution and land-use change resulting from resource extraction, agriculture, urban and suburban expansion, and recreation. Some disturbances can be functions of both natural and human conditions (e.g., forest fire ignition and spread) (Figure 2). This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate. This analysis points to specific research needs that should improve the understanding of how climate change affects forest disturbances. This paper is one in a series developed by the forest sector of the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. In examining how forests may be affected by climate change, the Forest Sector Committee divided the topic into four areas (processes, diversity, disturbances, and socioeconomics), each of which is the focus of an article in this issue of BioScience. Impacts of climate changes on aquatic disturbances are critical, but this paper focuses on direct terrestrial impacts. The effects of a rise in sea level, coastal processes, and salinity on terrestrial systems are examined in the coastal sector of the national assessment (NAST 2000)

Climate change and forest disturbances

Studies of the effects of climate change on forests have focused on the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes and to disperse, but they have ignored the effects of disturbances caused by climate change (e.g., Ojima et al. 1991).Yet modeling studies indicate the importance of climate effects on disturbance regimes (He et al. 1999). Local, regional, and global changes in temperature and precipitation can influence the occurrence, timing, frequency, duration, extent, and intensity of disturbances (Baker 1995, Turner et al. 1998). Because trees can survive from decades to centuries and take years to become established, climate-change impacts are expressed in forests, in part, through alterations in disturbance regimes (Franklin et al. 1992, Dale et al. 2000)

Plasma Proteomic Profiling in HIV-1 Infected Methamphetamine Abusers

We wanted to determine whether methamphetamine use affects a subset of plasma proteins in HIV-infected persons. Plasma samples from two visits were identified for subjects from four groups: HIV+, ongoing, persistent METH use; HIV+, short-term METH abstinent; HIV+, long term METH abstinence; HIV negative, no history of METH use. Among 390 proteins identified, 28 showed significant changes in expression in the HIV+/persistent METH+ group over the two visits, which were not attributable to HIV itself. These proteins were involved in complement, coagulation pathways and oxidative stress. Continuous METH use is an unstable condition, altering levels of a number of plasma proteins

HIV-Specific Antibodies Capable of ADCC Are Common in Breastmilk and Are Associated with Reduced Risk of Transmission in Women with High Viral Loads

There are limited data describing the functional characteristics of HIV-1 specific antibodies in breast milk (BM) and their role in breastfeeding transmission. The ability of BM antibodies to bind HIV-1 envelope, neutralize heterologous and autologous viruses and direct antibody-dependent cell cytotoxicity (ADCC) were analyzed in BM and plasma obtained soon after delivery from 10 non-transmitting and 9 transmitting women with high systemic viral loads and plasma neutralizing antibodies (NAbs). Because subtype A is the dominant subtype in this cohort, a subtype A envelope variant that was sensitive to plasma NAbs was used to assess the different antibody activities. We found that NAbs against the subtype A heterologous virus and/or the woman's autologous viruses were rare in IgG and IgA purified from breast milk supernatant (BMS) – only 4 of 19 women had any detectable NAb activity against either virus. Detected NAbs were of low potency (median IC50 value of 10 versus 647 for the corresponding plasma) and were not associated with infant infection (p = 0.58). The low NAb activity in BMS versus plasma was reflected in binding antibody levels: HIV-1 envelope specific IgG titers were 2.2 log10 lower (compared to 0.59 log10 lower for IgA) in BMS versus plasma. In contrast, antibodies capable of ADCC were common and could be detected in the BMS from all 19 women. BMS envelope-specific IgG titers were associated with both detection of IgG NAbs (p = 0.0001)and BMS ADCC activity (p = 0.014). Importantly, BMS ADCC capacity was inversely associated with infant infection risk (p = 0.039). Our findings indicate that BMS has low levels of envelope specific IgG and IgA with limited neutralizing activity. However, this small study of women with high plasma viral loads suggests that breastmilk ADCC activity is a correlate of transmission that may impact infant infection risk