The Potential of Agent Based Models for Testing City Evacuation Strategies Under a Flood Event

AbstractThis paper explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities under threat of an imminent flooding due to extreme hydro-meteorological events. The first part of the paper is an introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. It is also presented the benefits and limitations of such models. The second part of the paper focuses on the theory used to build the ABM. For this study, theories and frameworks of human behaviour and disaster psychology were used. To feed the ABM model qualitative and quantitative attributes or characteristics of human beings are abstracted from literature review, fieldwork and expert's knowledge. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast Symphony, a Java based modelling system. The results of the initial experiments implemented in a region of the city of Marbella, southern Spain, are presented and discussed. The preliminary results are promising to further enhance the development of the model and its implementation and testing at full city scale

The Potential of Agent Based Models for Testing City Evacuation Strategies Under a Flood Event

AbstractThis paper explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities under threat of an imminent flooding due to extreme hydro-meteorological events. The first part of the paper is an introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. It is also presented the benefits and limitations of such models. The second part of the paper focuses on the theory used to build the ABM. For this study, theories and frameworks of human behaviour and disaster psychology were used. To feed the ABM model qualitative and quantitative attributes or characteristics of human beings are abstracted from literature review, fieldwork and expert's knowledge. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast Symphony, a Java based modelling system. The results of the initial experiments implemented in a region of the city of Marbella, southern Spain, are presented and discussed. The preliminary results are promising to further enhance the development of the model and its implementation and testing at full city scale

Holistic Flood Risk Assessment In Coastal Areas - The PEARL Approach

Coastal floods are one of the most dangerous and harmful natural hazards affecting urban areas adjacent to shorelines. The present paper discusses the FP7-ENV-2013 EU funded PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project which brings together world leading expertise in both the domain of hydro-engineering and risk reduction and management services to pool knowledge and practical experience in order to develop more sustainable risk management solutions for coastal communities focusing on present and projected extreme hydro-meteorological events. The PEARL approach draws upon the complexity theory and the use of complex adaptive system (CAS) models as tools to identify root causes of vulnerabilities and their multi-stressors and to analyze risk and the behavior of key actors

Adaptive disaster risk assessment : Combining multi-hazards with socioeconomic vulnerability and dynamic exposure

Climate change, combined with the rapid and often unplanned urbanisation trends, is associated with a rising trend in the frequency and severity of disasters triggered by natural hazards. Among the weather-related disasters, floods and storms (i.e. hurricanes) account for the costliest and deadliest in the last decades. The situation is of particular importance in Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) because their relative higher vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, due to their location, fragile economies, limited resources, and more vulnerable habitats. Therefore, SIDS must implement adaptation measures to face the impacts of climate change and those of the urbanisation growth; for which is necessary to have an appropriate Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA), which should include the hazard itself, the intrinsic socio-economic vulnerability of the system and the exposure of infrastructure and humans to the hazard. Traditional DRA approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR) have focused mainly on the natural and technical roots of risk, this is the modelling of the hazard and implementation of physical and structural defences, for which the hazard component is the centre. Traditional DRA methods pay no or little attention to the other dimensions of disaster risk, and do not often investigate the spatial and temporal relationships between the hazard, the vulnerability and the exposure components. A better alternative when dealing with DRA is a holistic risk assessment, which looks at risk as a whole, looking into the components and seeking to understand the interactions, interrelatedness and interdependences between different processes and parts of the whole

Combining Ecosystem Services with Cost-Benefit Analysis for Selection of Green and Grey Infrastructure for Flood Protection in a Cultural Setting

The present paper describes a methodological framework that combines ecosystem services (flood protection, education, art/culture, recreation and tourism) with economic analysis for selection of multifunctional measures for flood resilience. The framework includes active stakeholder participation and it consists of the four main components: (1) identification and valuation of ecosystem services pertinent to the project site under various mitigation scenarios, including baseline (pre-mitigation conditions); (2) evaluation of most effective flood mitigation measures through hydrodynamic simulations, and evaluation of economic viability using cost-benefit analysis; (3) selection of measures through consideration of ecosystem services, and solicitation of stakeholders’ inputs; (4) development of the conceptual landscape design. Application of the framework was demonstrated in a case study of Ayutthaya Island, Thailand. Results of our research suggest that taking a holistic perspective of ecosystem services and economic assessments, marshalled through active stakeholder participation, has the potential to achieve more ecologically sustainable and socially acceptable solutions for flood protection in areas with cultural heritage. However, there is still a considerable challenge in taking this framework to a full-scale practical implementation, and this mainly relates to the selection of indicators that can enable proper application of ecosystem services