The conservation status and dynamics of a protected African lion Panthera leo population in Kafue National Park, Zambia

Includes bibliographical references.The abundance of African lions Panthera leo has declined rapidly in recent decades, largely due to competition for space with growing human populations. The future persistence of the species in the wild therefore depends heavily on viable populations in large protected areas, where lions play key ecological and economic roles. Zambia is one of nine countries estimated to have over 1000 wild lions, and Kafue, its largest national park, is a key refuge for the species. In this thesis I aimed to address the paucity of management and conservation relevant data on Kafue's lion population. I first used a track-based occupancy survey to determine the broad-scale drivers of lion distribution in the park. My results did not support my a priori expectations of anthropogenic edge effects driving lion occupancy; instead favourable habitat emerged as the best predictor of dry season lion distribution. The lack of edge effects is likely a result of the uniform suppressive effect on prey biomass of ubiquitous illegal bushmeat hunting in Kafue. After using my occupancy results to stratify my study area, I tested the effectiveness and efficiency of two well-established survey methods, track counts and call-up surveys, by comparing the resulting density estimates with that of a reference sample of GPS-collared lions in the study area. Accuracy of the two results was comparable, but the call-up estimate was more precise. However, call-up surveys are subject to variation in response rates that is difficult to quantify. I thus recommend that track count surveys are more suitable for monitoring lion population trends in Kafue. I further provide the first robust density estimate for northern Kafue of 1.83 lions (>1yr old) per 100 km2. Understanding how animals use space is fundamental to their conservation. I therefore used GPS collars to investigate lion spatial ecology at a finer scale, and the effects thereon of the seasonal flooding of large parts of Kafue. Home range sizes were comparable to those of other lion populations in the region. However, seasonal inundation caused lions to expand home ranges, travel greater distances and shift away from favourable habitat in the wet season, potentially contributing to apparent high cub mortality rates. The combination of these factors may limit the resilience of the population in the face of identified local anthropogenic threats (i.e. illegal hunting of ungulates and lions, legal trophy hunting of lions and frequent, uncontrolled bushfires). I provide both direct and indirect evidence of such threats, and conclude that lion abundance in Kafue is limited primarily by the suppressed prey population, while the extent and regularity of bushfires may also have adverse effects. I recommend stronger enforcement of existing regulations pertaining to illegal hunting and fires, and the implementation of recently developed monitoring software to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of limited law enforcement resources. I further conclude that lion hunting quotas were excessive prior to the 2013 ban on hunting in Zambia, and suggest that the ban remain in place for at least three years to enable adequate recovery of the population. If the Zambian government elects to lift the ban, I propose a total combined quota of 5.25 lions per annum for the hunting concessions surrounding Kafue. I further recommend the implementation of strict age-based regulations within a robust adaptive management framework, based on the best available scientific data, to ensure the sustainability of harvest. To evaluate the effectiveness of such management interventions I propose long-term monitoring of lion abundance and distribution in Kafue using annual track count surveys. This study highlights that even the largest of Africa's national parks cannot ensure the survival of flagship apex carnivores. My findings and recommendations may be applicable to other wild lion populations in large protected areas where data paucity limits management effectiveness. Understanding and managing threats to these protected areas at the appropriate scale is critical if they are to meet their conservation objectives and ultimately ensure the persistence of wild lion populations

Possible relationships between the South African captive-bred lion hunting industry and the hunting and conservation of lions elsewhere in Africa

The trophy hunting of lions is contentious due to increasing evidence of impacts on wild populations, and ethical concerns surrounding the hunting of captive-bred lions in South Africa. The captive-bred lion hunting industry in South Africa has grown rapidly while the number of wild lions hunted in other African countries has declined. In 2009 and 2010, 833 and 682 lion trophies were exported from South Africa, respectively, more than double the combined export (2009, 471; 2010, 318) from other African countries. There has been an associated increase in the prevalence of the export of lion bones from South Africa: at least 645 bones/sets of bones were exported in 2010, 75.0% of which went to Asia. Such trade could be problematic if it stimulated demand for bones from wild lions or other wild felids. Captive-bred lion hunting differs from wild lion hunting in that lions are hunted in smaller areas (49.9 ± 8.4 km2compared to 843 to 5933 km2, depending on the country), hunts are cheaper (US$20 000–40 000 compared to US$37 000–76 000 [excluding the costs of shooting other species and government charges]), shorter (3.3 compared to 14–21 days), success rates are higher (99.2% compared to 51.0–96.0%), and trophy quality is higher (skull length + breadth = 638.8 compared to 614–638 cm). Most clients perceive captive-bred and wild lion hunting to be different products but there is some overlap in markets: 48.7% of clients that had hunted captive-bred lions showed no preference regarding the type of future hunts. Owing to the size of the captive-bred hunting industry, even marginal overlap in demand could affect wild lion hunting significantly. If captive-bred lion hunting were ever prohibited, a transfer of demand to wild lion hunts could lead to elevated off-takes with negative impacts on wild populations. However, if off-takes of wild lions were held constant or reduced through effective regulation of quotas, increased demand could increase the price of wild lion hunts and strengthen financial incentives for lion conservation. These possibilities should be considered if future efforts are made to regulate captive-bred lion hunting.Pantherahttp://www.sawma.co.za/ab201

The trophy hunting of African lions: scale, current management practices and factors undermining sustainability

The trophy hunting of lions Panthera leo is contentious due to uncertainty concerning conservation impacts and because of highly polarised opinions about the practice. African lions are hunted across at least ∼558,000 km 2 , which comprises 27-32% of the lion range in countries where trophy hunting of the species is permitted. Consequently, trophy hunting has potential to impart significant positive or negative impacts on lions. Several studies have demonstrated that excessive trophy harvests have driven lion population declines. There have been several attempts by protectionist non-governmental organisations to reduce or preclude trophy hunting via restrictions on the import and export of lion trophies. We document the management of lion hunting in Africa and highlight challenges which need addressing to achieve sustainability. Problems include: unscientific bases for quota setting; excessive quotas and off-takes in some countries; fixed quotas which encourage over-harvest; and lack of restrictions on the age of lions that can be hunted. Key interventions needed to make lion hunting more sustainable, include implementation of: enforced age restrictions; improved trophy monitoring; adaptive management of quotas and a minimum length of lion hunts of at least 21 days. Some range states have made important steps towards implementing such improved management and off-takes have fallen steeply in recent years. For example age restrictions have been introduced in Tanzania and in Niassa in Mozambique, and are being considered for Benin and Zimbabwe, several states have reduced quotas, and Zimbabwe is implementing trophy monitoring. However, further reforms are needed to ensure sustainability and reduce conservation problems associated with the practice while allowing retention of associated financial incentives for conservation

The Significance of African Lions for the Financial Viability of Trophy Hunting and the Maintenance of Wild Land

Recent studies indicate that trophy hunting is impacting negatively on some lion populations, notably in Tanzania. In 2004 there was a proposal to list lions on CITES Appendix I and in 2011 animal-welfare groups petitioned the United States government to list lions as endangered under their Endangered Species Act. Such listings would likely curtail the trophy hunting of lions by limiting the import of lion trophies. Concurrent efforts are underway to encourage the European Union to ban lion trophy imports. We assessed the significance of lions to the financial viability of trophy hunting across five countries to help determine the financial impact and advisability of the proposed trade restrictions. Lion hunts attract the highest mean prices (US$24,000–US$71,000) of all trophy species. Lions generate 5–17% of gross trophy hunting income on national levels, the proportional significance highest in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia. If lion hunting was effectively precluded, trophy hunting could potentially become financially unviable across at least 59,538 km2 that could result in a concomitant loss of habitat. However, the loss of lion hunting could have other potentially broader negative impacts including reduction of competitiveness of wildlife-based land uses relative to ecologically unfavourable alternatives. Restrictions on lion hunting may also reduce tolerance for the species among communities where local people benefit from trophy hunting, and may reduce funds available for anti-poaching. If lion off-takes were reduced to recommended maximums (0.5/1000 km2), the loss of viability and reduction in profitability would be much lower than if lion hunting was stopped altogether (7,005 km2). We recommend that interventions focus on reducing off-takes to sustainable levels, implementing age-based regulations and improving governance of trophy hunting. Such measures could ensure sustainability, while retaining incentives for the conservation of lions and their habitat from hunting

Gross and net earnings (US$/km²) from trophy hunting with and without lions on quota (± S.E., the ‘with’ scenario includes areas which do not normally have lions on quota – and for those areas, calculations were made without lions on quota for both scenarios).

<p>Gross and net earnings (US$/km²) from trophy hunting with and without lions on quota (± S.E., the ‘with’ scenario includes areas which do not normally have lions on quota – and for those areas, calculations were made without lions on quota for both scenarios).</p

Percentage of Income from trophy hunting that is derived from each of a number of key species in several countries.

a<p>The rank importance of each species to the earnings from trophy hunting (according to the data from hunting blocks analysed) (including species other than the key species included in the table).</p>b<p>Data on elephant quotas were unavailable in Tanzania: industry experts advised that approximately 60 elephants are hunted per year and off-takes were assumed to be distributed evenly across blocks excluding those close to the Kenya border where elephants are not hunted.</p

Costs data used to estimate potential earnings from trophy hunting.

a<p>In most countries, lease length is largely consistent among blocks, but in Mozambique, due to high variability in this measure, mean lease length ± SE reported by operators was used.</p>b<p>We assumed (using data from the surveys) that 61±19.1% (mean ± SD) of running costs were fixed, and the remainder were variable.</p>c<p>Due to a small sample size, we used the Tanzanian mean value for start up and operating costs in Zambia, but used the minimum and maximum values from Zambia.</p

Mean annual changes in the price of hunts of key hunting trophies (including trophy fees, and daily rates) during 2005–2011, adjusted for inflation (see footnote).

<p>We used the compound US inflation rate to convert 2011 hunt prices into 2005 US dollars, and compared these prices with actual 2005 hunt prices to determine the real increase or decrease in hunt prices in the period from 2005 to 2011.</p

Mean price for the cheapest trophy hunting packages (daily rates and trophy fees) for each of four key species.

<p>Mean price for the cheapest trophy hunting packages (daily rates and trophy fees) for each of four key species.</p

Mean predicted returns on investment from trophy hunting under three lion hunting scenarios, percentages of hunting blocks in which trophy hunting operations are predicted to be financially viable, and the minimum area in which trophy hunting is predicted to be viable (excluding some areas in each country that were excluded from the analyses).

a<p>Most of the remainder of Namibia's hunting areas are privately owned and do not support lion populations.</p>b<p>Including all game management areas (some of which may not actually support hunting in practise), excluding the unknown (but relatively small) area of game ranches in which hunting is practised.</p>c<p>The remainder of Zimbabwe's hunting areas comprise CAMPFIRE areas (of which lions are hunted in approximately 6,800 km²), and private ranches (most of which do not support lions, except for conservancies, which are included in the above-analysis).</p