A New Method for Wet-Dry Front Treatment in Outburst Flood Simulation

When utilizing a finite volume method to predict outburst flood evolution in real geometry, the processing of wet-dry front and dry cells is an important step. In this paper, we propose a new approach to process wet-dry front and dry cells, including four steps: (1) estimating intercell properties; (2) modifying interface elevation; (3) calculating dry cell elevations by averaging intercell elevations; and (4) changing the value of the first term of slope limiter based on geometry in dry cells. The Harten, Lax, and van Leer with the contact wave restored (HLLC) scheme was implemented to calculate the flux. By combining the MUSCL (Monotone Upstream–centred Scheme for Conservation Laws)-Hancock method with the minmod slope limiter, we achieved second-order accuracy in space and time. This approach is able to keep the conservation property (C-property) and the mass conservation of complex bed geometry. The results of numerical tests in this study are consistent with experimental data, which verifies the effectiveness of the new approach. This method could be applied to acquire wetting and drying processes during flood evolution on structured meshes. Furthermore, a new settlement introduces few modification steps, so it could be easily applied to matrix calculations. The new method proposed in this study can facilitate the simulation of flood routing in real terrain

A New Method for Wet-Dry Front Treatment in Outburst Flood Simulation

When utilizing a finite volume method to predict outburst flood evolution in real geometry, the processing of wet-dry front and dry cells is an important step. In this paper, we propose a new approach to process wet-dry front and dry cells, including four steps: (1) estimating intercell properties; (2) modifying interface elevation; (3) calculating dry cell elevations by averaging intercell elevations; and (4) changing the value of the first term of slope limiter based on geometry in dry cells. The Harten, Lax, and van Leer with the contact wave restored (HLLC) scheme was implemented to calculate the flux. By combining the MUSCL (Monotone Upstream–centred Scheme for Conservation Laws)-Hancock method with the minmod slope limiter, we achieved second-order accuracy in space and time. This approach is able to keep the conservation property (C-property) and the mass conservation of complex bed geometry. The results of numerical tests in this study are consistent with experimental data, which verifies the effectiveness of the new approach. This method could be applied to acquire wetting and drying processes during flood evolution on structured meshes. Furthermore, a new settlement introduces few modification steps, so it could be easily applied to matrix calculations. The new method proposed in this study can facilitate the simulation of flood routing in real terrain

Assessment of local outburst flood risk from successive landslides: case study of Baige landslide-dammed lake, upper Jinsha river, eastern Tibet

Two large landslides in October and November 2018 sequentially dammed the Jinsha river at Baige village, eastern Tibet, China. Subsequently, breaching of each dam induced massive outburst floods that posed a severe threat to downstream cities and infrastructure. Field investigation indicates volumes of the first and second landslide dam are about 24.5 × 106 m3 and 8.53 × 106 m3, respectively. However, the peak discharge of the flood generated from the second landslide (3.1 × 104 m3/s) was significantly larger than that from the first (1.0 × 104 m3/s). The second peak discharge would have been 5.15 × 104 m3/s if the dam breached naturally. In this study, we developed two geometry parameters: effective dam height He (elevation difference between overtopping level and river bottom) and a narrowing number distribution Nr(H) (measures the degree to which a river section is occupied by landslide materials to elevation H) which represents river section narrowing effects of successive landslides. Using numerical simulations, we show that He dominates peak discharge, and it has a linear relationship with peak discharge with slope of 1009.4 m2/s. Furthermore, the dam includes two sub-areas: a higher part (SB-1) and a lower part (SB-2). Two floods only eroded SB-2. However, breaching of SB-1 and breached SB-2 still narrowed the river. The narrowing effects of the first and second breached dam on the river channel are around 0.35 and 0.5, respectively. Spillway and landslide runup deposits increased the local flood risk by narrowing and lifting the local river section; the first landslide promoted the second landslide, which occupied the same area and forms a dam with high He value. Consequently, a more catastrophic flood could be triggered by a small subsequent landslide. Spatial superposition phenomenon of successive landslides increased the local flood risk. This research quantitatively analyzed the influence of the geometry of dam induced by successive landslides on the process of outburst floods and the risk

Increasing glacial lake outburst flood hazard in response to surge glaciers in the Karakoram

Unlike glaciers in other parts of the world, Karakoram glaciers seem to be stable or gaining in mass in response to global climate change, a phenomenon known as ‘the Karakoram anomaly’. Many of the glaciers experience irregular, frequent, and sudden advances (surges) that pose an increasing threat of ice dam lake formation and subsequent outburst flooding throughout the region. In this study, we document 179 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that occurred from 1533 to 2020 in five major valleys. Sixty-four of the events took place after 1970, and 37 of these had remote sensing imagery that covered the GLOF formation to breaching sequence. Thirty-six glaciers were associated with GLOFS due to ice-front advance building ice barriers in rivers. The Kayger and Khurdopin glaciers are the most hazardous examples, being responsible for 31.8% of major GLOFs in the entire Karakoram. Using a cross-correlation feature-tracking technique on remote sensing imagery, we analyzed ten surge glaciers and documented six surge events from 1990 to 2019. Results show periodic surge cycles for the Khurdopin, Kyager, Shishper, and Chilinji glaciers of c. 15-20 years, with a surge velocity in the mid-2010s higher than that of the late 1990s for all studied glaciers. The higher velocity of a glacier increases the risk of flooding downstream of the terminus because the transfer of a huge ice mass towards the terminus during the surge is a key factor for formation and reformation of series of ice-dammed lakes, thus determining the magnitude and frequency of outburst flood events. The response of Karakorum glaciers to global warming and climate forcing, comprising a continuum of glacier mass gain, ice thinning and ice advance, has resulted in lake formation and ice dam failures. We predict the frequency of GLOFs will increase in the future. These findings support the increasing anomalous behavior of glaciers in the Karakoram region. To synthesize the detailed observations, a conceptual model is presented of ice-dammed lake formation and GLOF initiation in response to glacier surging

Glacier surging controls glacier lake formation and outburst floods: the example of the Khurdopin Glacier, Karakoram

Ice dammed glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) associated with surge glaciers are increasing in response to climate change. Predicting the phenomenon to protect downstream communities remains challenging around the globe. Surge-type glaciers are characterized by unsteady movements and frequent frontal advances, which cause natural hazards by obstructing river channels, forming ice-dammed lakes, which can cause GLOFs, posing threats downstream. The determination of the surge characteristics, timing and evolution of lakes and GLOFs is fundamental to flood control and disaster management. In this study, the case of the Khurdopin Glacier (Karakoram) is used to elucidate key behavioral characteristics of surging glaciers that usefully can be applied to understand the GLOF hazard from glaciers worldwide. Seven surge periodical cycles associated with the Khurdopin Glacier that occurred at intervals of 19–20 years between 1880 and 2020 were investigated using a GLOF dataset. The ice flow dynamics of three surge events that occurred between 1970 and 2020 were analyzed using high-resolution satellite imagery. The results indicate that the maximum and minimum surge velocities control the conduit development that drains lakes resulting in a number of GLOFs. A surge between 1998–2002 generated six GLOFs. A subglacial drainage model was developed to estimate the timing of the peak discharge in GLOF hydrographs. The results show that conduit melt enlargement becomes the dominant drainage process at one-third of the rising limb. These floods' high peak discharges and short durations are primarily due to the higher lake water temperature, which controls the conduit enlargement rate. Based on the current study results, the proposed model can be adopted worldwide for surge-type glaciers. The initiation of the main surge period, which leads to lake formation, can be anticipated, as the pre-surge period can be identified using remote-sensing analysis. The timing of ice-dammed lake formation and GLOFs can be estimated, providing residents and authorities time to take precautionary measures and thus limiting damage downstream

Impact of glacier changes and permafrost distribution on debris flows in badswat and shishkat catchments, northern Pakistan

Knowledge of glacier changes and associated hazards is of great importance for the safety of the population and infrastructure in the mountainous region of High Mountain Asia. In this study, we assessed the impact of variations in glacier velocity, glacier surface elevation change, meteorological variables, and permafrost distribution on debris flows in Badswat and Shishkat catchments. In Badswat catchment, a debris flow initiated from the former glacial moraine on 17 July 2018. In Shishkat catchment, debris flows usually occur during summer months when air temperatures are highest. We conducted in-depth analyses of long-term in situ meteorological data, field evidence, and satellite images. We applied feature and offset tracking techniques to high-resolution optical and radar images from Landsat, Planet and Synthetic Aperture Radar during 2013–2019 to estimate glacier velocities. We used geodetic methods to estimate glacier surface elevation change. We analyzed the associations between debris flow occurrence, permafrost distribution, and the variations in the 0°C isotherm. Between 1995 and 2019, the increase in temperatures in July is statistically significant for most low- and high-elevation meteorological stations. In Badswat and Shishkat catchments, permafrost is distributed over most of the catchment area and in the debris flow source areas. In Badswat catchment, no significant variations in glacier velocity and elevation change were observed over the study period; however, all three glaciers showed slightly higher velocity toward the terminus during the debris flow events. The debris flow in Badswat catchment damaged infrastructure and blocked the Immit River. The lake created by the blockage of the river inundated 34 houses, a community hall, agricultural land, and other infrastructure such as roads and businesses. Glacier dynamics and seasonal changes in temperature in the permafrost zone could have contributed to debris flow initiation. Our results show that climate and cryosphere change pose significant threats to the population in the region. Monitoring climate and cryosphere change can contribute toward the improvement of disaster risk reduction and mitigation policies.This research was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP, Grant Nos. 2019QZKK0902 and 2019QZKK0903), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42071017), the CAS President’s International Fellowship Initiative (Grant No. 2021VEA0005).N

Stormflow generation in a humid forest watershed controlled by antecedent wetness and rainfall amounts

Understanding the meanings and identifying the controls for the stormflow generation with complex and nonlinear behaviors is essential for the development of threshold-based hydrological theory, as well as accurate assessment and prediction for flash flood risks. However, the study of catchment emergent patterns with threelinear threshold behaviors associated with hydrological connectivity has received little attention. Therefore, utilizing soil water storage, rainfall, and streamflow data spanning 3 years in a humid forest experimental watershed, Dujiangyan city, China, we elucidated how and where stormflow was generated with nonlinear behaviors, which were affected by antecedent wetness and rainfall amounts. Stormflow threshold behavior was taken as a function of combined gross precipitation and antecedent soil water storage, which was isolated using piecewise regression analysis with the identification of two breakpoints (i.e., generation threshold, Tg and rising threshold, Tr). It was found that the initial emergent behavior of rainfall-runoff was generally activated at the Tg, and then an abrupt shift from slow to fast flood response was possibly triggered at the Tr. These processes are important to understand the formation and development of flash floods at the watershed scale. It was noted that, above the Tr, considerably higher stormflow amounts generally occurred due to the lateral-connectivity extension of runoff contributing area from stream to neighboring hillslopes. Meanwhile, gravity-driven water movements in soil and better hydrological connectivity during the above-Tr phase readily triggered the huge flash flood disasters. The above-Tr flash floods with abrupt shifts were predominantly controlled by rainfall amounts, while initial below-Tg stormflow generation was mainly controlled by unsaturated soil water storage. More noteworthy, under heavy rainstorm conditions, the above-Tr stormflow was dominantly generated by subsurface flow, as was demonstrated at hillslope and watershed scales. These findings contribute to increasing our understanding of the controls on three-linear threshold-based hydrological behaviors, as well as of subsurface stormflow generation mechanism associated with hydrological connectivity in humid forest watersheds

Impact of glacier changes and permafrost distribution on debris flows in Badswat and Shishkat catchments, Northern Pakistan

Knowledge of glacier changes and associated hazards is of great importance for the safety consideration of the population and infrastructure in the mountainous regions of Upper Indus Basin (UIB). In this study, we assessed the variations in glacier velocity, glacier surface elevation change, meteorological conditions, and permafrost distribution in Badswat and Shishkat catchments located in UIB to access the potential impact on the occurrence of debris flow in both catchments. We find that the glacier surface velocity increased during the debris flow event in the Badswat catchment and the mean daily temperature was 3.7°C to 3.9°C higher in most of the locations. The enhanced glacier surface elevation lowering period coincide with the rise in temperature during spring and autumn months between 2015 to 2019 in Badswat catchment. The source region of debris flow falls within the lower boundary of permafrost occurrence zone and lies below the 0°C isotherm during late spring and summer months. In Shishkat catchment the 0°C isotherm reaches above the debris flow source area during August and the glacier do not show any significant variations in velocity and surface elevation change. The debris flow source area is adjacent to the slow-moving rock glacier in Shishkat catchment while in Badswat catchment the debris flow initiated from the former glacier moraine. Both catchments are largely glacierized and thus sensitive to changes in climatic conditions and changes in the cryosphere response possess significant threats to the population downstream. Continuous monitoring of cryosphere-climate change in the region can contribute toward the improvement of disaster risk reduction and mitigation policies.</p