Mind the Gap: A Study in Global Development through Persistent Homology

The Gapminder project set out to use statistics to dispel simplistic notions about global development. In the same spirit, we use persistent homology, a technique from computational algebraic topology, to explore the relationship between country development and geography. For each country, four indicators, gross domestic product per capita; average life expectancy; infant mortality; and gross national income per capita, were used to quantify the development. Two analyses were performed. The first considers clusters of the countries based on these indicators, and the second uncovers cycles in the data when combined with geographic border structure. Our analysis is a multi-scale approach that reveals similarities and connections among countries at a variety of levels. We discover localized development patterns that are invisible in standard statistical methods

The community counts: a participatory approach to social audits

Community matters – community responds. Yet many health planners still consider people as passive recipients of programs. Social audits respond to the voice of different stakeholders, including intended beneficiaries, in order to improve health planning and service delivery. The introductory and concluding papers of a special supplement to BioMed Central, discusses the evolution of Centro de Investigación de Enfermedades Tropicales (CIET)’s social audit methods, the lessons learned, and the way forward to the next generation of social audits

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage