To begin to understand the trends in the changes in the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold (ORIT), I calculate the ORIT, using the Threshold Model, at several points during the 2003 RMI measles outbreak.

<p>I also graph the fraction of the population immunized during the outbreak.</p

Comparison of RPORITA-generated predictions for the ORIT and ORIT approximations based on direct input of survey data for the 2003 RMI measles outbreak.

<p>The RPORITA signifies the Recursive Prediction of the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold Algorithm, which I use to produce a comparison of the RPORITA prediction and the Threshold Model approximation for the ORIT, or Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold based on direct data input. The prediction day difference (PDD) is the difference between the second day of direct input on which the prediction is based and the day of the prediction. The Days since Start of Immunization (DSI) is the number of days between the day of prediction and the start of the ORI. The prediction error is defined as follows: prediction error = RPORITA prediction−Threshold Model approximation.</p

Comparison of the RPORITA-generated predictions for the ORIT and ORIT approximations based on direct input of survey data for the 2006 Fiji measles outbreak.

<p>The RPORITA signifies the Recursive Prediction of the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold Algorithm, which I use to produce a comparison of the RPORITA prediction and the Threshold Model approximation for the ORIT, or Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold, based on direct data input. The prediction day difference (PDD) is the difference between the second day of direct input on which the prediction is based and the day of the prediction. The Days since Start of Immunization (DSI) is the number of days between the day of prediction and the start of the ORI. The prediction error is defined as follows: prediction error = RPORITA prediction−Threshold Model approximation.</p

Data demonstrating the two key relationships concerning RPORITA prediction error for the 2006 Fiji measles outbreak.

<p>The prediction day difference (PDD) is the difference between the second day of direct input on which the prediction is based and the day of the prediction. The Days since Start of Immunization (DSI) is the number of days between the day of prediction and the start of the Outbreak Response Immunization. This data presents a numerical depiction of the two critical relationships with regard to Recursive Prediction of the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold Algorithm (RPORITA) error: 1) between DSI and prediction error, and 2) between PDD and prediction error.</p

Data demonstrating the two key relationships concerning RPORITA prediction error for the 2003 RMI measles outbreak.

<p>The prediction day difference (PDD) is the difference between the second day of direct input on which the prediction is based and the day of the prediction. The Days since Start of Immunization (DSI) is the number of days between the day of prediction and the start of the Outbreak Response Immunization. This data presents a numerical depiction of the two critical relationships with regard to the Recursive Prediction of the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold Algorithm (RPORITA) error: 1) between DSI and prediction error, and 2) between PDD and prediction error.</p