Estimation of Measles Immunization Coverage in Guwahati by Ranked Set Sampling

In order to study the efficacy of the ranked set sampling (RSS), as an alternative procedure, for estimation of the proportion of children aged 12–23 immunized against measles vaccine, a study is conducted in slum and non-slum regions of Guwahati, the capital of Assam, India. The RSS-based approach in the cases of both perfect and imperfect rankings is compared with its counterpart simple random sampling (SRS). The results revealed that estimates based on RSS with set size (4) are very close to Census report for Assam (2012) and has less variability than the SRS estimator. RSS-based estimates for different choices of probability of ranking error (ρ) are not only more accurate but are more precise and efficient than the SRS procedure, and also suggest that a the procedure of RSS better than the classical SRS

Nuptiality Patterns in Uttar Pradesh-India

In this paper Indian Nuptiality Patterns oversuccessive NFHS rounds are captured through threeparameter marriage model. The Coale’s model wasfirst to capture similarity in the schedules of firstmarriage frequencies in population belonging todifferent cultures. The data on ever married sample fromthree rounds of NFHS was used to fit the standardnuptiality schedule for Uttar Pradesh. Findings aresuggestive of the slowing marriage rates compared tothe Swedish Standard. The age at entry into marriages isstill quite low in Uttar Pradesh compared toInternational Standard

The Child Health Scenario in India: An Application of Bayesian Approach

Background: The child mortality rate of a place is an indication of the basic health facility prevalent there. A place with better medical facility records low child mortality. The child mortality rate reduction is not as expected in many developing countries. In last two decades the child death rate has not been reduced significantly in India. The aim of this work is to explore the child death rate in different Indian states. Materials and Methods: The Bayesian approach has been applied to control the over dispersion due to presence of zero (i.e. no-death count) in the data set. The Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) has been applied to control the presence of over the Zero Inflation Distribution. The data set has been considered from Indian National Health and Family Survey (NFHS-3) conducted during 2005-2006. The women having at least one living child of age less than five years has been selected as study subjects

Prevalence and determinants of caesarean section in south and south-east Asian women

Background: Caesarean section is considered a relatively preferable and safe method of delivery as compared to normal delivery. Since the last decade, its prevalence has increased in both developed and developing countries. In the context of developing countries viz., South Asia (the highest populated region) and South-East Asia (the third-highest populated region), where a significant proportion of home deliveries were reported,however, the preference for, caesarean delivery and its associated factors are not well understood. Objective: To study the caesarean delivery in the South and South-East Asian countries and to determine the factors associated with the preference for caesarean delivery. Methodology: Demographic and Health Survey Data on from ever-married women of nine developing countries of South and South-East Asia viz., Vietnam, India, Maldives, Timor-Leste, Nepal, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Cambodia have been considered. Both bivariate and binary logistic regression models were used to estimate the propensity of a woman undergoing for caesarean delivery and to assess the influence of maternal socioeconomic characteristics towards the preference for caesarean delivery. Results:Obtained results have shown an inclination of caesarean delivery among urban than rural women and are quite conspicuous, but is found to be underestimated mostly among rural women. Caesarean delivery in general is mostly predisposed among women whose baby sizes are either very large or smaller than average, have a higher level of education and place of delivery is private medical institutions. The logistic regression also revealed the influence of maternal socioeconomic characteristics towards the preference for caesarean delivery. Based on nine South and South-East Asian countries an overall C-section prevalence of 13%, but based on institutional births its increase to 19%. The forest plot demonstrated that a significant inclination of C-section among urban than rural regions. In Meta-Analysis, very high and significant heterogeneity among countries is observed, but confirms that in terms of prevalence of C-section all of the countries follow independent pattern. Conclusion: Study of seven urban and four rural regions of nine South and South- East Asian countries showed, a significant inclination towards the caesarean delivery above the more recent outdated WHO recommended an optimal range of 10-15%and are associated maternal socioeconomic characteristics. In order to control unwanted caesarean delivery, the government needs to develop better healthcare infrastructure and along with more antenatal care related schemes to reduce the risks associated with increased caesarean delivery

Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19

Rationale, aims, and objectives: The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1,560,000 individuals till 10th April 2020, which has resulted in 95,000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19. Method: Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, viz., (United States of America (USA) and Italy (more than 100,000 cases); United Kingdom (UK), and France (50,000 to 100,000 cases), and India and Russia (6,000 to 10,000 cases).The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days)in these selected countries one month after WHO declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Results: On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the USA), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, UK and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections. Conclusions: In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic

Modernization of the Indian Decennial Census: An Illustration of Vaccination Coverage for Validity of Estimates

Census is a complete and systematic enumeration of members of a given population in a particular region or geographical area. It has variety of advantages but also suffers from a number of difficulties. In this regard an effort has been made to test whether sample survey provides sufficient information as that of complete enumeration or not. The data has been taken from the survey Comparison of Two Survey Methodologies to Estimates Total Vaccination Coverage” sponsored by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), New Delhi. It has been observed that sample estimate gives fairly good estimate of population parameter

Frailty Approach to Age at First Birth in Uttar Pradesh-India

In Indian State of Uttar-Pradesh, there is always pressure among newly-wed to conceive early and have births. Research studies have documented relationship between age at first birth & fertility, besides the socio-demographic factors that influence them. Study aims answering such relationships by the use of frailty models. Indian fertility is characterized as too-early-too-fast. By age-30 majority women would have completed the childbearing. Forty percent of the women had first birth below 18 while 95% experienced before reaching age 26. Births at younger age are reflection on poor enforcement of child-marriage restraint act-18 for girls & 21 for boys. The data is from NFHS-3[3]. The frailty model capturing the unobserved heterogeneity in the event time is preferred over the standard survival models. For the current study, inverse Gaussian with log-logistic baseline-hazard is used, as it fits the data well. Age at marriage and women’s literacy significantly determines the Age at First Birth. The model also predicts significant frailty with variance parameter 0.1

Does Context Matter? Factors influencing Neonatal Deaths in Rural North Indian (EAG) States: Hierarchical Linear Modeling Approach

United Nations Millennium Development Goal (MDG) for 2015 aims at reducing child mortality level from its level in 1990 by two-thirds. India has disproportionate burden of infant and child deaths. In India approximately two thirds of all the infant deaths are neonatal deaths. India achieves the MDG target of reduction in child mortality levels or not hinges largely on the progress made in the demographically poor performing states of undivided Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Odisha. Finding shows that neonatal deaths in pregnant mothers receiving Tetanus Toxid injections during the antenatal care visits is way less compared those who did not receive the TT injections. High levels of intra-class correlation indicate clustering of deaths. Fifty percent of the variations in neonatal deaths are due to between community differences. These community level differences are not captured well in the available dataset. The community distance to primary health facility used to study the variations at the community level do not have significant impact in explaining the differences in neo natal deaths at community level in the selected States