A streamlined real options model for Real Estate Development

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2007.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 52-53).This thesis introduces a streamlined model that incorporates the value of the real options that exist in real estate development projects. Real options add value to a project by providing developers with flexibility to minimize downside risk or take advantage of upside potential as conditions change from deterministic expectations. Though developers currently incorporate this value into their decision making using intuition and judgment, the model presented here provides a tool with which developers can value options in a rigorous and quantitative fashion. Though the model should not be used as a comprehensive land residual model, it serves as a powerful proof of concept for real options analysis in the field of real estate. Further, it can be used to measure the relative value and risk of projects with and without real options. The model is based on both the traditional economic and the more recent engineering real options methodologies. Both approaches have been applied to real estate development projects, but have not yet caught on due to their newness and complexity. The streamlined model incorporates the elements of both methodologies that are most applicable to current development practice. In addition, the model is simplified and tailored to existing valuation techniques. The added benefit of this "hybrid" approach is that it reduces the learning curve associated with real options analysis so as to encourage its adoption in the real estate field in the short term.(cont.) The model uses Monte Carlo simulations in Excel and is targeted towards specific options scenarios commonly faced by developers; specifically, the options to phase a project, choose among multiple uses, and defer development. A case study demonstrates the model, and compares the results of building two phased buildings versus a single larger building on the same site. The results show that the phased program results in less risk and a higher expected net present value than the single building program, while the option to defer development adds significant value to both programs.by Baabak Barman and Kathryn E. Nash.S.M.in Real Estate Developmen

The politics of data visualisation and policy making

Data visualisation has become ubiquitous in everyday life, from seeing images in news media to tracking individual health indicators. While the effects of data visualisation on society and people have been explored within a range of literature, there has been far less attention paid to the interconnectedness of data visualisation and policy making. In this special issue, we explore how data visualisation matters for policy priorities, processes and outcomes; how it reflects the demands and constraints posed by specific policy problems; and finally, what data visualisations reveal about broader political, social, and cultural shifts and the implications for policy

Lack of Sez6 Family Proteins Impairs Motor Functions, Short-Term Memory, and Cognitive Flexibility and Alters Dendritic Spine Properties

Seizure-related gene 6 (Sez6), Sez6-Like (Sez6L), and Sez6-Like 2 (Sez6L2) comprise a family of homologous proteins widely expressed throughout the brain that have been linked to neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorders. Here, we use Sez6 triple knockout (TKO) mice, which lack all three Sez6 family proteins, to demonstrate that Sez6 family proteins regulate dendritic spine structure and cognitive functions, motor learning, and maintenance of motor functions across the lifespan. Compared to WT controls, we found that Sez6 TKO mice had impaired motor learning and their motor coordination was negatively affected from 6 weeks old and declined more rapidly as they aged. Sez6 TKO mice had reduced spine density in the hippocampus and dendritic spines were shifted to more immature morphologies in the somatosensory cortex. Cognitive testing revealed that they had enhanced stress responsiveness, impaired working, and spatial short-term memory but intact spatial long-term memory in the Morris water maze albeit accompanied by a reversal deficit. Our study demonstrates that the lack of Sez6 family proteins results in phenotypes commonly associated with neuropsychiatric disorders making it likely that Sez6 family proteins contribute to the complex etiologies of these disorders

Sexual citizenship in Belfast, Northern Ireland

In this article we examine the contours and construction of sexual citizenship in Belfast, Northern Ireland through in-depth interviews with 30 members of the GLBT community and a discursive analysis of discourses of religion and nationalism. In the first half of the article we outline how sexual citizenship was constructed in the Irish context from the mid-nineteenth century onwards, arguing that a moral conservatism developed as a result of religious reform and the interplay between Catholic and Protestant churches, and the redefining of masculinity and femininity with the rise of nationalism. In the second half of the article, we detail how the Peace Process has offered new opportunities to challenge and destabilise hegemonic discourses of sexual citizenship by transforming legislation and policing, and encouraging inward investment and gentrification

Characteristics of HIV-Infected Children at Enrollment into Care and at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in Central Africa

Background Despite the World Health Organization (WHO) regularly updating guidelines to recommend earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children, timely enrollment into care and initiation of ART in sub-Saharan Africa in children lags behind that of adults. The impact of implementing increasingly less restrictive ART guidelines on ART initiation in Central Africa has not been described. Materials and Methods Data are from the Central Africa International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) pediatric cohort of 3,426 children (0±15 years) entering HIV care at 15 sites in Burundi, DRC, and Rwanda. Measures include CD4 count, WHO clinical stage, age, and weight-for-age Z score (WAZ), each at enrollment into HIV care and at ART initiation. Changes in the medians or proportions of each measure by year of enrollment and year of ART initiation were assessed to capture potential impacts of changing ART guidelines. Results Median age at care enrollment decreased from 77.2 months in 2004±05 to 30.3 months in 2012±13. The median age at ART initiation (n = 2058) decreased from 83.0 months in 2004±05 to 66.9 months in 2012±13. The proportion of children 24 months of age at enrollment increased from 12.7% in 2004±05 to 46.7% in 2012±13, and from 9.6% in 2004±05 to 24.2% in 2012±13 for ART initiation. The median CD4 count at enrollment into care increased from 563 (IQR: 275, 901) in 2004±05 to 660 (IQR: 339, 1071) cells/μl in 2012±13, and the median CD4 count at ART initiation increased from 310 (IQR:167, 600) in 2004±05 to 589 (IQR: 315, 1113) cells/μl in 2012±13. From 2004±05 to 2012±13, median WAZ improved from -2 (IQR: -3.4, -1.1) to -1 (IQR: -2.5, -0.2) at enrollment in care and from -2 (IQR: -3.8, -1.6) to -1 (IQR: -2.6, -0.4) at ART initiation. Discussion and Conclusion Although HIV-infected children 24 months of age accounted for half of all children enrolling in care in our cohort during 2012±13, they represented less than a quarter of all those who were initiated on ART during the same period. Further research is needed to identify barriers to timely diagnosis, linkage to care, and initiation of ART among children with HIV infection